Re: Ukraina Dodaj do ulubionych


viva_barca napisała:

> Dobry wieczor,
>
> Czy moglby mi ktos z Panstwa wytlumaczyc, co jest bezposrednia przyczyna tego,
> ze bankructwo grozi... Ukrainie??


widze kilka waznych przyczyn:

-duze znaczenie eskportu dla gospodarki ukrainy

-silne zwiazki z gospodarka rosyjska ktora jedzie na taniejacych obecnie
surowcach energetycznych

-duzy dlug zewnetrzny kraju - w tym spory dlug krotkoteminowy

-rosnaca niechec do pozyczania panstwom uznawanym za ryzykownych dluznikow

-no i - jak prawie wszedzie - spory odsetek wlasnosci zagranicznej w sektorze
finansowym

niezly artykul o gospodarce ukrainskiej:

www.mw.ua/1000/1550/64350/
>>
<...>
There are other channels of influence, more deeply-felt by the Ukrainian economy.

The first channel is foreign trade. Widespread financial problems have already
undermined demand in the international markets. Recession in the world’s leading
economies will be accompanied by the decreasing investment demand and poorer
dynamics of construction. This, in turn, will continue to drive down prices for
metallurgy and machine building products.

Since the Ukrainian economy is highly dependent on exports making up more than
47% of the country’s GDP, the above trends in the global markets will be harmful
for the development of export-oriented sectors, with subsequent repercussions on
industries relying on exports directly and indirectly.

The second channel is the banking system. The penetration of foreign capital
into Ukraine’s financial institutions is considerable. The financial sector is
one of the national leaders in attracting foreign direct investments (19% of
total accumulated foreign capital). The share of foreign capital in the banking
sector amounts to 37.2% of total capital, which exceeds the threshold of
economic security established at 30%; in the insurance sector it approaches the
threshold value, currently constituting 28.1%.

Given the large share of transnational financial corporations on the Ukrainian
banking sector, the global financial crisis could have an indirect adverse
impact if mother companies suffer great losses or have liquidity problems.

In this context, it is noteworthy that investments and development of Ukrainian
manufacturing companies hinge more on lending than on the stock market: 16% of
investments in fixed assets are funded from loans. The most credit-dependent
sectors are agriculture, construction, processing industries, including the
chemical and petrochemical industry, the food industry, coke production and oil
refining.

The third channel of influence is debt. In June 2008, gross foreign debt made up
59.9% of GDP at USD 100.06 billion. Almost 85% of this debt was that of the
private sector. According to IMF data, the maximum limit of foreign debt for low
and middle income countries is set at 49.7% of GDP; once this limit is exceeded,
the probability of financial crisis increases to 70%.

Deteriorating liquidity in global financial markets could slow up lending to the
Ukrainian economy. As a result, Ukrainian borrowers will have difficulty
refinancing their credit liabilities in external markets.

Furthermore, the share of short-term capital in foreign debt is large (28.2% as
of late June 2008). Over the first six months of 2008, the ratio of short-term
foreign debt coverage with reserves fell by 15% to 1.258. This capital, in the
event of its sudden outflow could contribute to destabilization of the national
currency exchange rate.

The current conditions of the national economy development differ a great deal
from those of 1998 when Ukraine was also hit by a profound global financial
crisis. Now the national economic system is less resistant to financial shocks.
Whereas in 1997-1998 corporate debt was small and the corporate sector did not
rely so heavily on foreign funding, today the national financial system is more
dependent on external cash flows.

If worst comes to worst, and all of the above channels start working at once and
in their full capacity, the global financial crisis will have grave consequences
for Ukraine:

— the deficit of foreign trade balance will increase sharply to go beyond 10% of
GDP, which is critical for emerging economies;

— the positive balance of account of capital transactions and financial
transactions will dwindle;

— the positive balance of payments, maintained over the last few years, will
turn into a negative one.
<...>
<<
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