stoje_i_patrze
05.11.09, 22:18
wg mnie strzeli pierwsza. polecam.
It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Japan is drifting helplessly towards a dramatic fiscal crisis. For 20 years
the world's second-largest economy has been able to borrow cheaply from a
captive bond market, feeding its addiction to Keynesian deficit spending – and
allowing it to push public debt beyond the point of no return.
The rocketing cost of insuring against the bankruptcy of the Japanese state
is telling us that the model has smashed into the buffers. Credit default
swaps (CDS) on five-year Japanese debt have risen from 35 to 63 basis points
since early September. Japan has suddenly decoupled from Germany (21), France
(22), the US (22), and even Britain (47).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html
Will Japan Default?
The IMF expects Japan's gross public debt to reach 218% of GDP this year, 227%
next year, and 246% by 2014. The savings rate has dropped from 15% in 1990 to
near 2% today, even less than the U.S. Tokyo's price index fell 2.4% in
October, the highest deflation in modern era.
Even worse is that there are similarities with China today.
"Japan is drifting helplessly towards a dramatic fiscal crisis. For 20 years
the world's second-largest economy has been able to borrow cheaply from a
captive bond market, feeding its addiction to Keynesian deficit spending – and
allowing it to push public debt beyond the point of no return".
"The pillars of the government debt market are crumbling. Little wonder that
the Ministry of Finance has begun advertising bonds in Tokyo taxis, featuring
Koyuki from The Last Samurai. If Japan's bond rates rise to global levels of
3% to 4%, interest costs will shatter state finances. "
http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/11/will-japan-default.html