Russian sanctions facilitate Poland economy

16.06.17, 16:18
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EU authority in future heavily depends on successful influence on Russia thorough the sanctions policy. Countermeasures on the part of Moscow focus on disruption of the unity of EU states in the issue of sanctions against Russian Federation, which demolished international security having annexed Crimea and launched warfare in the East of Ukraine. Extensive propaganda campaign launched by Russia contributed much to this purpose making it possible to sell Europeans the vision of multi-billion financial losses of European economies and cutting of thousands of jobs.

In Poland agrarians became the target audience. The discourse on losses associated with sanctions, as well as their inefficiency,was launched in 2016 by the politicians of Poland People’s Party (PSL) and by some of the representatives of the left-wing forces which propagated ideas of lifting economic sanctions against Russia.

Fears of negative impact of Russian counter-sanctions turned out to be mistaken. The experience of the last decade, when Russia from time to time introduced trade restrictions against particular countries, strengthened the entrepreneurs' position to diversify sales markets in the view of the high risks associated with excessive dependence on the volatile Russian market. A state,which has significant export supply and diversified sales markets, is less sensible to adverse effects following the relationships with an unpredictable partner.

Export volume of Polish goods to Russia decreased yet before the introduction of food import embargo. Polish export to Russia declined (by 1.1 billion euros in 2014, by about 1.9 billion in 2015 and flattened out in 2016), primarily in such economy sectors as animal and vegetable products. In 2013-16, these industries suffered a decline in exports by 0.3 and 0.5 billion euros respectively. That is complemented by the reduction of exports of finished consumer goods by 0.27billion euros. In addition, large-scale shifts have taken place in sectors which being beyond the counter-sanctions, however, affected by decline in purchasing power in Russia. Thus, Polish machine building has reduced exports to Russia by 0.7 billion euros, chemical industry - by 0.15 billion euros.

In the meantime, despite a significant recession in the Russian market, Polish crop and livestock production has not suffered such significant losses on the world market. Thus, the overall dynamics of exports of livestock and crop products is positive and increased from 2013 to 2016 by 0.9 billion euros and 0.24 billion euro respectively. Sectors of the Polish economy which fell beyond the counter-sanctions, however, reduced exports to Russia due to its subsided purchasing power, also have a positive overall dynamics in 2013-2016 (for example, machinery production increased by 8 billion euros and export of vehicles – by 4.5 billion euros). This confirms the fact that sanctions can be sensitive in the short term prospects only, and companies can quickly reorient themselves and enter new markets.

The agro-industrial complex of Poland has almost immediately adapted to new conditions. Following imposition of sanctions against Russia, the total exports of Polish agricultural products increased by 4.5% in 2014, while taking together with food products - by 7.1% compared to 2013.

In fact, the time since Russia applied counter-measures against the EU has shown it clear that Polish producers of food products did not depend on the Russian market in the long-run prospect. Generally, the losses for Polish exporters were quite negligible due to the immediate response of Polish enterprises and reorientation to the new sales markets. There have been positive shifts in the state's exports: changes in the directions of food products delivery were successful. Particularly (the most problematic), export of apples was rearranged to the Gulf countries, export of pork and beef was additionally redirected to the EU countries.

Losses for the Polish economy associated with bilateral restrictions were observed only at the level of separate industries or producers which failed to enter new markets in such a short term.

Economic restrictions against Russian Federation became an additional impulse for Poland in the development of its own economy through entering into new sales markets with its products, which would have been impossible in the absence of sanctions and counter-sanctions, which ultimately helped Polish agribusiness to become even more flexible.

The negative impact of Russian embargo on the EU is incomparable with the impact on Russian economy produced by anti-Russian sanctions.
    • aby Więcej PL eksportu, więcej AFR nędzy i migrantów 17.06.17, 04:49
      Odbiorcą subsydiowanej żywności z Polski - reeksportowanej poprzez inne kraje EU - jest przede wszystkim Afryka. Ten eksport, w ramach narzuconego krajom afrykańskim pakietu umów o wolnym handlu (zwłaszcza Economic Partnership Agreements) niszczy lokalną produkcję i lokalne rynki.
      Dotyczy to wszystkich krajów - od biednych, takich jak Kamerun, po bogatszych jak RPA.
      Cameroon is a good example to understand the disastrous effects of European dumping practices. In 1994 Cameroon imported about 60 tons of poultry. In 1996 the country joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and accepted to liberalised trade. By 2003 chicken imports had reached 22.153 tons. As a result 92% of the local producers went bankrupt, 10.000 people lost their employment and Cameroon spent 15 Million Euro hard currency to import what it had previously produced locally.
      The tragedy does not end there. Europe's frozen pieces may lie in the harbour for days before being transported under the African sun to remote places. With more days spent on a market stand it reaches the table half rotten and has collected enough salmonella and other hostile creatures to make the consumer thoroughly sick.
      An official research found out that in fact some 83% of imported chicken on Cameroon's markets are not fit for human consumption.
      www.africamission-mafr.org/chicken.htm
      Na temat RPA:
      Chinese steel and Mexican-made cars became political dynamite last year as politicians including U.S. President Donald Trump championed anti-free trade rhetoric. Now chickens are at the center of a bitter fight between South Africa and Europe. South African farmers and labor unions say the European Union is selling chicken legs, thighs and wings at below cost, threatening local companies and jobs. EU producers make enough money marketing breasts in their home market that dark meat is sold as a waste product, they say. (....)
      www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-25/chicken-fight-rocks-south-africa-s-trade-relations-with-europe
      capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
      www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/eu-africa-free-trade-agreement-destroys-development-policy-says-merkel-advisor/
      Polska, która nie miała kolonii w Afryce, teraz już bierze udział w nowej rundzie, tym razem neokolonialnego podboju, jako poddostawca eurorekinów. I ma szczerą ambicję zarabiać sama, bez pośredników.
      inafrica24.com/nowoczesnosc/poland-africa-food-exports-to-african-countries-a-great-opportunity-for-polish-companies/#sthash.2VEONKP9.dpbs

      Jeżeli Polska bierze udział w niszczeniu fundamentu afrykańskiej gospodarki, jakim jest produkcja żywności, jest odpowiedzialna i współwinna za skutki (głód, wędrówka ludówi).
      A total of 5,636 Ghanaian migrants reached Italy by boat in 2016, up 27% from 2015.
      Kwesi Sampson made his first illegal trek across the Sahara desert nearly a decade ago in hopes of reaching Europe. Like many irregular migrants, Sampson comes from a small poultry farming community in Dormaa, a rural town in the Brong-Ahafo region. Brong-Ahafo is also notable for being the center of Ghana’s floundering poultry industry, which has failed in recent years to adapt to changing market demands. This has put many poultry businesses on the verge of collapse.
      Last year, former president John Dramani Mahama invoked poultry farmers during a speech at the United Nations in an apparent attempt to connect Ghana’s migrant crisis to systemic challenges in the poultry industry. “Some of the young Africans who hazard the desert and Mediterranean Sea to cross to Europe from my country are young poultry farmers or other entrepreneurs who sell their shops and undertake the journey because they can no longer compete with the tons of frozen chicken dumped on African markets annually,” Mahama said.
      qz.com/1003249/young-ghanaians-are-risking-their-lives-to-get-to-europe-illegally/
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