przycinek.usa
25.09.08, 16:03
To jest prawdziwa walka. Prawie wszyscy podatnicy sa przeciw i takiej jednosci nie bylo chyba nigdy w historii. Wladze probuja wepchnac nam ten bailout w gardla a media trabia o tym w kolko. Ja nie wiem jak ci dziennikarze moga sobie po tym spojrzec w oczy w lustrze.
Bush we wczorajszym "oredziu" piepszyl trzy po trzy i nic z tego wedlug mnie nie wynika, oprocz powaznego zagrozenia systemowego dla firm finansowych.
Przeciez jest sprawa oczywista i logiczna, ze wywalenie 700B oznacza konkretne straty dla tych, ktorzy te pieniadze musza wylozyc. Paradoksalnie nie dotyczy to podatnikow bezposrednio - bo podatnicy beda to mieli rozlozone w ratach. Jasna sprawa jest, ze bailout musi byc sfinansowany przez rynek obligacji. Tak duza transza obligacji z cala pewnoscia wplynie na cene pieniadza i podwyzszy rentownosc.
I teraz gwozdz programu - na swiecie istnieje cala siec zakladow o stope procentowa na rynku. Ten rynek jest najwiekszym na swiecie rynkiem pod wzgledem wielkosci nominalnej. W pierwszym polroczu 2008 stanowil 464.7 tysiecy miliardow dolarow i jakakolwiek gwaltowana zmiana stopy procentowej pusci z torbami polowe bankow.
Interwencje na rynku sa zlem obiektywnym a walka o bailout nabiera tempa. Dzisiaj ukazal sie raport, ktory zawiera bardzo ciekawe dane.
Nareszcie zaczynamy sie dowiadywac wiecej o stanie naszej wlasnej gospodarki. PO przeczytaniu tegoz Kongres raczej nie uchwali tego bailoutu, mam nadzieje.
www.moneyandmarkets.com/files/documents/Final-Bailout-White-Paper.pdf
Fragment: "Executive Summary New data and analysis demonstrate that the proposal before Congress for a $700 billion financial industry bailout is too little, too late to end the massive U.S. debt crisis; and, at the same time, too much, too soon for the U.S. Government bond market where most of the funds would have to be raised.
I. Too Little, Too Late to End the Debt Crisis. Congress should
1. Disregard data based on the list of troubled banks maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC’s list currently has 117 institutions with $78 billion in assets. However, based on a broader analysis of recent FDIC call report data, we find that institutions at risk of failure include 1,479 FDIC member banks and 158 thrifts with total assets of $3.6 trillion, or 36 times the assets of banks on the FDIC’s list.
2. Think twice before providing a broad bailout for U.S. debts given the wide diversity of mortgage holders and the great magnitude of the total debts outstanding in the United States. Just-released Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data show that, beyond mortgages, there are another $20.4 trillion in privatesector consumer and corporate debts, plus $2.7 trillion in municipal securities outstanding.
3. Recognize that, among banks and thrifts with $5 billion or more in assets, there are 61 banks and 25 thrifts that are heavily exposed to nonperforming
mortgages.
4. Get a better handle on the enormous build-up of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks.
5. Base any legislation on (a) realistic estimates of the loan amounts already delinquent or in default, and (b) reasonable forecasts of how many more are likely to go bad in a continuing recession.
6. Recognize the inadequacies in already-established safety nets, such as the FDIC for bank depositors, Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) for brokerage customers, and state guarantee associations for insurance policyholders. There should be no illusion that the $700 billion estimate proposed by the Administration will be enough to end the debt crisis. It could very well be just a drop in the bucket.
II. Too Much, Too Soon for the U.S. Bond Market. There should also be no illusion that the market for U.S. government securities can absorb the additional burden of a $700 billion bailout without putting dramatic upward pressure on U.S.
interest rates. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) projects the 2009 federal deficit will rise to $482 billion. But adding the cost of announced and proposed bailouts, now approximately $1 trillion, it is undeniable that the federal deficit could double or triple in a short period of time, driving interest rates sharply higher and aggravating the very debt crisis that the bailout plan seeks to alleviate."