Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA?

    • stoje_i_patrze ZAMIESZKI w EUROPIE? 24.01.09, 11:50
      euobserver.com/9/27460
      EU states monitor spread of civil unrest

      In a Wednesday interview with the BBC, the head of the International Monetary
      Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, predicted that the economic downturn will cause
      more unrest.

      "[It could happen] almost everywhere, in Europe certainly, and also in emerging
      countries," he said. "You've had some strikes that look like normal, usual
      strikes, but it may worsen in the coming months."

      Asked which countries were most at risk, Mr Strauss-Kahn mentioned Hungary,
      Ukraine, Latvia and Belarus. "It can be my own country [France], the UK, it can
      be eastern Europe," he said.

      "The situation is really, really serious," he added.
    • pawel-l Re: Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA? 30.01.09, 10:00
      Pierwsze bankructwa już w tym roku ?

      Despite the rapidly expanding, pan-European deflationary malaise,
      where the banking systems of Spain, Iceland, Ireland, Greece and
      Hungary are totally insolvent; where Ireland's debt-GDP ratio has
      skyrocketed to 80% year-over-year (with an annualized budget deficit
      of almost 10%); where the sovereign debts of Greece and Spain have
      already been downgraded and ratings warnings have been issued for
      several other countries; where trillions of dollars of asset values
      have been wiped out; where government tax revenues are in decline
      and rising unemployment threatens to spill into the streets –
      against this backdrop, Mr. Trichet was quoted as saying there is “no
      threat” of deflation in the euro zone.
      Under the rules of the Stability pact, the EU member countries must
      adhere to the guidelines of an annual budget deficit no larger that
      3% of GDP and an aggregate debt-GDP ratio of 60% or less. But few in
      Europe can boast even a positive GDP, while the acceleration of
      national debt is simply alarming. In the UK, bank and insurer
      bailouts already have a price tag of £500 billion; the British pound
      now sits at a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar, while net capital
      outflows are staggering. Banks in Spain, Switzerland and Italy have
      been also bailed out or nationalized, and the total costs of the
      euro zone crisis have yet to be fully realized.

      My only confusion is the lack of risk premium priced into current EU
      debt. Presently, the German 10-year bond, the European benchmark,
      yields 3.23%, but Spanish debt only yields an extra 113 basis points
      (bp). In fact, with the exceptions of Ireland, Greece, Poland and
      Hungary, the hopelessly indebted nations of Europe are trying to
      attract foreign money with investment premiums of less that 150 bp
      over their more secure German counterparts. At some point, investors
      will demand higher risk premiums, and simply tighter regulations by
      the ECB will not stimulate foreign capital inflows into a
      floundering Spanish economy, nor will they inspire the German
      populace to spend their national gold reserves on bailing out
      Hungary and Italy.

      I strongly believe that further sovereign downgrades to junk or
      third-world status lie ahead for several European countries. What's
      worse, regardless of how "at the ready" Mr. Trichet is to take on
      the Herculean task of a pan-European reorganization, there is a very
      real probability of sovereign defaults in 2009. When asked about
      such a possibility, his response was, “I would totally exclude any
      kind of hypothesis such as the one you suggest.”
      • stoje_i_patrze Re: Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA? 30.01.09, 10:38
        dzieki za wrzutke. nastepnym razek podawaj tez prosze i linka do zrodla badz
        napisz z jakiego to forum
    • stoje_i_patrze Agency debt dla EMU 10.02.09, 09:44
      Kłótnia i urabianie Niemiec rozpoczęte:
      www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/4571850/Europe-ambushes-Germany-on-debt-bail-out.html
    • stoje_i_patrze Europa w czarnej 11.02.09, 15:50
      Document: European Banks May Need Huge Bailout - PaperLast update: 2/11/2009
      9:01:45 AMLONDON (Dow Jones)--European banks sitting on GBP16.3 trillion of
      troubled assets may suffer massive losses, The Daily Telegraph reports, citing a
      confidential Brussels document. A secret 17-page paper discussed by European
      Union finance ministers Tuesday, also warned that government attempts to buy up
      or underwrite such assets could plunge the E.U. into a deeper crisis. National
      leaders and E.U. officials share fears that a second bank bailout in Europe will
      raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who
      lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of
      countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and the U.K. to pay it
      back. "Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary
      costs - actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in
      absolute terms and relative to gross domestic product in member states," the
      European Commission document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned. Full story:
      ]
    • stoje_i_patrze UK bedzie drukowac kase! 12.02.09, 08:17
      czyli kupowal obligacje panstwa (zwane potocznie gilts). to jawny druk pieniadza

      www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4594455/Bank-of-England-will-buy-gilts-to-boost-economy.html
    • stoje_i_patrze Europa - 4Q PKB 13.02.09, 10:02
      1. Gospodarka Estonii skurczyła się w IV kw. 2008 najmocniej od co najmniej 15 lat

      stooq.pl/n/?f=225413
      2 PKB Węgier spadł w IV kw. 2008 o 2,0 proc. rdr
      stooq.pl/n/?f=225412
      3
      Niemcy Dynamika PKB IV kwartał -2.1% q/q, -1.6% y/y
      Francja Dynamika PKB IV kwartał -1.2% q/q
      Czechy Dynamika PKB IV kwartał 1% y/y
      Węgry Dynamika PKB IV kwartał -1% q/q, -2% y/y

    • stoje_i_patrze europa wschodnia (centralna) - ciekawe zestawienie 13.02.09, 13:30
      Eastern Europe: On Crisis Watch
      www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/255488/eastern_europe_on_crisis_watch
      wynika z niego jasno że jestesmy kolejni w kolejce po tych co mają niezłą wtopę
      jak litwa łotwa i estonia plus wegry. brakuje mi tu jeszcze ukrainy. jesli by
      sie udalo cos zrobic z Polska to kolejne sa badz obok bulgaria i rumunia i na
      koncu czechy


      brak jednak paru innych panstw jak bialorus, kazachstan. no ale to troche inne
      polozenie.
    • stoje_i_patrze Ireland ‘could default on debt’ 15.02.09, 14:57
      business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5733723.ece#cidshockTC-RSS&attr=1185799
    • stoje_i_patrze Currencies caught in eye of storm 15.02.09, 20:29
      The currencies of central and eastern Europe have taken a battering but there
      could be worse to come as banks in the eurozone draw in their horns.

      Most of the larger current account deficits in the emerging market world are in
      central and eastern Europe, and the region has a high level of export
      dependency. It is in the eye of the global economic storm.

      The Hungarian forint dropped to a record low of Ft304.25 against the euro this
      month, and is 12 per cent down against the single currency this year.

      Poland's zloty has fallen to a five-year low against the euro and is down 11 per
      cent this year. The Czech koruna is at a three-year low against the euro, down 7
      per cent since the start of the year.

      Countries in the region stand out as among the emerging economies that are most
      vulnerable to the global crisis. They face growing problems funding large
      current account deficits and paying off external debt, analysts say.

      Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary have external debt bills this year of
      about $100bn, according to ING Financial Markets, which they could struggle to
      repay given that access to credit markets is still limited.

      Hungary has been forced to seek help from the International Monetary Fund to
      meet repayments. Analysts say it is not inconceivable that Poland and the Czech
      Republic will end up in the same predicament.

      Gerard Lyons at Standard Chartered says: "The dependency on capital inflows is
      alarming when one considers the global implications of the credit crunch. With
      exports slumping and foreign direct investment plans being put on hold, the net
      result is a significant turnround in flows to emerging economies."

      According to the Institute for International Finance, net commercial bank
      lending to emerging economies declined from an inflow of $410bn in 2007 to $67bn
      in 2008, and is forecast to switch to an outflow of $61bn this year. "Even this
      may be too optimistic," says Mr Lyons. "The scale of the problem leaves eastern
      Europe very vulnerable."

      Nigel Rendell, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Capital Market, says:
      "Eastern Europe is definitely the region that is in the most difficulties. I
      expect the currencies in most of these countries to face further sharp falls.

      "It does not help that the Russian rouble has slumped. That has hurt the eastern
      European currencies. Unlike Russia, these countries do not have large foreign
      reserves to fall back on."

      Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas says there are clear similarities between the
      economic and financial conditions in emerging Europe and east Asian economies
      before the 1998 crisis. The Asian crisis was preceded by rapid growth in credit
      to the private sector, with a significant share of loans denominated in foreign
      currency.

      East Asian economies also recorded large current account deficits, mainly
      induced by the private sector. These deficits were financed by strong debt
      inflows, which reversed sharply after the crisis.

      Before the credit crisis, the massive external funding needs of eastern Europe
      came mostly in the form of foreign direct investment from the eurozone.

      Eurozone banks have the largest exposure to central and eastern Europe, with
      liabilities of $1,500bn, about 90 per cent of total foreign bank exposure to the
      region.

      Analysts warn that eurozone banks, especially those that have taken state aid,
      are less likely to want to roll over the sizeable debt that is maturing in the
      next few months.

      Credit Suisse estimates that $9bn in foreign exchange debt will mature in
      Hungary during the next three months, while in Poland the figure is $23bn.

      This response of central banks in the region to the economic slowdown has made
      the situation worse.

      Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank says central banks have cut interest rates at a
      perilous pace in an effort to support local economies without any consideration
      of the external value of their currencies.

      Hungary went to the IMF for help in October, but disregarded its advice to cut
      rates more slowly.

      Poland continues its restrictive fiscal policy in an effort to keep the
      household deficit within limits set by Maastricht criteria for entry into the
      eurozone.

      Mr Leuchtmann says the only solution for the central banks in the region would
      be to denounce further rate cuts and explain to the market that they are worried
      about the external value of their currencies.

      "At this stage, it is uncertain, though, whether even this step would be able to
      stop the sell-out of the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty and Czech koruna," he says.

      www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0216769a-fa39-11dd-9daa-000077b07658.html
      • pifpaf123 Re: Currencies caught in eye of storm - wersja pl 15.02.09, 21:55
        ft.onet.pl/9,21451,waluty_w_oku_cyklonu,artykul.html
    • stoje_i_patrze wschodnia i centalna europa - kryzys 16.02.09, 10:12
      Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown
      The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe
      has reached acute danger point
      www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html
      • stoje_i_patrze Re: wschodnia i centalna europa - kryzys 16.02.09, 11:09
        Cytat"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the
        collapse of the Austrian financial sector
        ," reported Der
        Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.


        CytatThe European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says
        bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc.
        The
        Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a
        "monetary Stalingrad" in the East


        CytatStephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has
        borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or
        roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck.
        The credit window has slammed shut.
        • stoje_i_patrze Re: wschodnia i centalna europa - kryzys 16.02.09, 11:13
          CytatWhether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover
          that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that
          there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to
          flood the markets with emergency stimulus.


          CytatThe sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already
          bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan – and Turkey
          next – and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve.[color="#FF0000"]
          We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world,
          using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.
          [/color]
      • wolo Re: wschodnia i centalna europa - kryzys 17.02.09, 22:41
        Sorry nie widziałem tego i też podlinkowałem niżej. To rzeczywiście
        dobry kawałek.
    • stoje_i_patrze Steinbrueck Says Euro States May Bail Out Members 17.02.09, 14:02
      Feb. 17 (Bloomberg)
    • bottomturn Re: Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA? 17.02.09, 14:25
      "...Sam
      rozważam zakup po horrendalnych cenach zakup sztabki (pierwsze
      lepsze ceny
      75tyspln za kg obecnie próby 999)."

      horrendalne 75tys zrobiło się okazyjne wink
      Ciekawe jak dzisiejsze 121tys wyglądać będzie po kolejnym kwartale..

    • stoje_i_patrze Poland Faces a Dilemma as Its Currency Declines 17.02.09, 14:30
      WARSAW
    • stoje_i_patrze Nacjonalizacja w Niemczech 17.02.09, 18:57
      Germany to break postwar taboo with new bank law
      CytatBERLIN/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Chancellor Angela Merkel's government
      appears ready to end weeks of intense debate and back a new law this week which
      would give Berlin the right to seize private property for the first time in the
      postwar era.

      The law, an extension of bank rescue legislation agreed last year, is due to go
      before Merkel's cabinet on Wednesday and would set the stage for a
      nationalisation of Hypo Real Estate (HRXG.DE), a high-profile casualty of the
      financial crisis.

      uk.reuters.com/article/stocksNews/idUKLNE51G03020090217
    • wolo Tutaj o Austrii 17.02.09, 22:29
      Przyczyna:

      www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html

      i skutek:
      stooq.pl/q/?s=atx&d=20090217&c=3d&t=l&a=lg&b=0
      Swoją drogą to nasz WIG20 wygląda całkiem nieźle przy ATXie
    • stoje_i_patrze Downgrades Loom for Hungary, Poland, Czech Bonds, 18.02.09, 09:07
      Downgrades Loom for Hungary, Poland, Czech Bonds, Yields Show

      www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVAhIacV3mpg&refer=home
      • wolo Re: Downgrades Loom for Hungary, Poland, Czech Bo 19.02.09, 23:39
        Emerging Europe will post an average current account deficit of 4.1
        percent of gross domestic product this year, more than double the
        1.7 percent deficit in Latin America and trailing surpluses in Asia,
        Africa and the Middle East, according to Citigroup Inc. data on
        Czech, Poland, Hungary and five other economies the region.

        A mnie sie wydaje, ze to nieprawda. Byc moze w ubieglym roku
        mielismy duzy deficyt handlowy. Ale sorry jak jest dolar po 2 zeta
        to troche tych fur z Ameryki i Europy przyjechalo. Troche ludzi na
        wakacje pojechalo. Akurat bilans handlowy nie powinien być
        problemem. Jezeli juz to flowy kapitalowe.
    • stoje_i_patrze Downgrades Loom for Hungary, Poland, Bond Yields S 18.02.09, 11:55
      www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8psRfft7OiI&refer=home
    • stoje_i_patrze Bailed-out banks to add £1.5 trillion to public de 19.02.09, 11:58
      Buhahahahhah
      Bailed-out banks to add £1.5 trillion to public debt
      CytatRoyal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB, the two banks bailed out by the
      Government
      , are to add between £1 trilion and £1.5 trillion to the public
      debt, the equivalent of between 70 and 100 per cent of GDP, the Office
      for National Statistics indicated this morning.


      CytatBritain’s public sector net debt is already a record high, hitting 47.8
      per cent of GDP in January, official figures show. This is the highest level of
      debt recorded since the ONS started recording data in 1993.


      CytatHowever the dismal figures do not paint the whole picture, as all
      the liabilities of the banks are added to the public books, and only the liquid
      assets are taken into account. The capital assets are not included.


      CytatThe massive debt will cause problems for the Government, which has
      already seen Northern Rock's debts added to its accounts. Analysts said that
      it would probably have to revise up its borrowing forecasts in April's
      budget.

      CytatJanuary is usually a strong month for tax income but the public sector
      repaid a net £3.3 billion over the month
      , well below £13.9 billion a year
      earlier
      , the ONS said.


      business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5764793.ece
      • wemur Stoi ci, to sobie patrz... 24.07.12, 18:23
        po co sie chwalić publicznie.
        Uważasz, że cytując anglojęzyczne artykuły jesteś mądrzejszy...Madrzejszy będziesz, jak przeczytasz co napisałeś i z sensem przetłumaczysz.
        Za trudne...
    • stoje_i_patrze dobre 20.02.09, 17:00
      ft.onet.pl/10,21818,unia_europejska_musi_pomoc_swoim_nowym_czlonkom,artykul.html
      • stoje_i_patrze ciekawt wpis zezowatego 21.02.09, 11:55
        ECB może się zawalić, tako rzecze Roubini
        zezorro.wordpress.com/2009/02/20/ecb-moze-sie-zawalic-tako-rzecze-roubini/
      • stoje_i_patrze Bundesbank fears relapse as German banks face €90b 28.11.09, 14:05
        Bundesbank fears relapse as German banks face €90bn fresh losses
        The Bundesbank has told German banks to take advantage of renewed confidence
        while they can to prepare for likely losses of €90bn (£81bn) over the next year,
        warning that the delayed shock waves of the economic crisis still pose a major
        threat to global recovery and bank finance.
        www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6654352/Bundesbank-fears-relapse-as-German-banks-face-90bn-fresh-losses.html



        Greece tests the limit of sovereign debt as it grinds towards slump
        Greece is disturbingly close to a debt compound spiral. It is the first
        developed country on either side of the Atlantic to push unfunded welfare
        largesse to the limits of market tolerance.
        www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6630117/Greece-tests-the-limit-of-sovereign-debt-as-it-grinds-towards-slump.html
    • pifpaf123 Re: Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA? 21.02.09, 21:17
      spekulacja skąd się wzięła większość strat z 18bln euro (na
      spekulowaniu kursem eurodolara)
      urbas.blog.onet.pl/2,ID365684545,DA2009-02-21,index.html
      • wsadows Re: Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA? 22.02.09, 10:10

        Ciekawy artykuł, ale skoro banki europejskie przegrały tę walkę o
        Euro, to kasa z ich depozytów powinna przeplynąć do banków w USA, a
        tam też bida, aż piszczy.

        • przycinek.usa Re: Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA? 07.03.09, 23:35
          ciekawy, ale bledny. odwazne tezy, ale niestety niesluszne
    • stoje_i_patrze Joint Eurozone Bond Idea ‘Has No Chance’ 23.02.09, 16:34
      EU’s Barroso Says Joint Eurozone Bond Idea ‘Has No Chance’
      Cytat Feb. 23 (Bloomberg)
      • coondelboory Re: Joint Eurozone Bond Idea ‘Has No Chance 23.02.09, 17:12
        Czyli idzie tak jak krakałem - Niemcy nie chcą płacić, mimo, że to grozi katastrofą eurozony. A może mają nadzieję na wzmocnienie dominacji - komu jak komu, ale Niemcom ludzie pożyczą i chcąc pomocy trzeba będzie się z Niemcami układać oddając to i owo...
        • el_matador9 Re: Joint Eurozone Bond Idea ‘Has No Chance 24.02.09, 13:06
          według prognoz astrologicznych Niemcy wkrótce przestaną wpłacać
          pieniądze do budżetu UE(vide 6 procentowy spadek niemieckiego PNB) -
          nie będzie żadnych środków unijnych dla polskich słowiańskich tępych
          leni którzy dodatkowo rękoma ekonomicznych debili Gronkiewicz Waltz
          i Balcerowicza nieopatrznie oddali cały swój sektor bankowy w ręce
          zagraniczne...
          żeby Was piekło pochłonęło za Waszą bezdenną głupotę!
          • przycinek.usa Re: Joint Eurozone Bond Idea ‘Has No Chance 07.03.09, 23:36
            do kogo pijesz?
            Wszystkiego jeszcze nie oddali. Jeszcze maja PLN.
    • stoje_i_patrze Ukraina 03.03.09, 22:05
      Ukraine risks unrest as ills worsen

      By Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk

      Published: March 2 2009 19:16 | Last updated: March 2 2009 19:16

      Olexander Pavlenko, a young computer programmer, is one of tens of thousands of
      Ukrainians who cannot get their money out of the bank.

      He stood in line in Kiev at Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank, two big troubled banks,
      planning to withdraw more than $10,000 (€7,950, £7,125). But like many others,
      he was told the cash was not available.
      I stood in line a couple times with other bank clients who were protesting,
      crying and screaming. But the bank told me: ‘Sorry, we simply don’t have the
      money now and can’t help you.’”

      With about nine banks now under the central bank’s special control, Ukrainians
      are increasingly worried.

      Even those with their money in apparently solid banks, including those
      controlled by west European banking groups, are concerned because the central
      bank has banned the early redemption of term deposits, the most popular form of
      saving in Ukraine.

      Altogether, hryvnia bank deposits have dropped 20 per cent since September and
      those in foreign currency 10 per cent.

      https://media.ft.com/cms/0877be22-075e-11de-9294-000077b07658.gif

      “This is very serious,” said Olexander Suhonyako, president of the Association
      of Ukrainian Banks.

      The growing discontent among bank clients is matched by other signs of public
      anger at the impact of the global crisis – and at the seeming inability of the
      country’s divided leaders to respond effectively.

      Recent weeks have seen protests by truck drivers complaining about taxes and the
      dramatic decline of the hryvnia, which has complicated the repayment of foreign
      currency vehicle loans.
      Meanwhile, the owners of street kiosks in Kiev successfully demonstrated against
      the city’s plans to take over their stalls.

      But with demonstrations drawing only up to 5,000 people, the authorities are
      confident there is no serious threat to stability.

      They say Ukraine is remarkably calm given the country’s economic problems. Gross
      domestic product growth is forecast to contract 5-10 per cent in 2009, while
      unemployment is rising and non-payment of wages is becoming more common.

      But with political leaders focused on the forthcoming presidential elections due
      before the end of the year, some observers fear that the protests will become
      bigger.

      Oleksiy Haran, a political science professor at Kiev’s Mohyla University, says:
      “If [the economic situation] worsens, if more banks run into trouble, and if
      more layoffs pile up, then I would expect large crowds to materialise. This will
      be dangerous for a country that is struggling already to deal with the economic
      crisis.”

      There seems to be no end to the disputes between Viktor Yushchenko, president,
      and Yulia Tymoshenko, his prime minister.

      Much now depends on the implementation of the $16.5bn package assembled by the
      International Monetary Fund, including money for bank refinancing. After
      disbursing $4.5bn last autumn, the IMF suspended further loans after a policy
      disagreement with Kiev.

      But Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko pledged at the weekend to co-operate with
      each other and the IMF on implementing reforms.

      Meanwhile, the IMF agreed to relax its desired deficit target from less than 1
      per cent of GDP to about 3 per cent, in the light of the deepening recession.

      Co-operating with the IMF will allow Ukraine not only to secure loans but also
      support from other international institutions including the World Bank and
      multinational banks, which have pledged to back their local subsidiaries.

      On Monday, Austria’s Raiffeisen International promised to support Aval, its
      Ukrainian affiliate.

      Hryhoriy Nemyria, deputy prime minister, insists Ukraine “is not a basket case”.
      Ceyla Pazabasioglu, the IMF’s Ukraine mission chief, agrees, saying the
      country’s difficulties are not “insurmountable”.

      But investors are not so sure. Ukraine’s credit default swap rate – a risk
      measure – stands at around 3,700, compared with about 1,000 for Latvia and 560
      for Hungary, two other east European states on IMF support.

      Every week seems to bring a new crisis – the next could come this weekend, when
      Kiev is due to pay a $400m bill to Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly.

      .................................

      Road from the Orange revolution

      Jan 2005 Viktor Yushchenko sweeps to power in the Orange Revolution

      Sept 2005 Mr Yushchenko sacks Yulia Tymoshenko, his prime minister, after
      repeated disputes

      March 2006 Parliamentary elections and appointment of Viktor Yanukovich as prime
      minister

      2007 Efforts by Mr Yushchenko and Mr Yanukovich to co-operate collapse and new
      elections are called. Ms Tymoshenko returns to power

      2003-2007 Strong growth, with GDP rising at an annual average of 8 per cent

      2008 GDP growth slows to 2 per cent. Gloom spreads into property and banking

      March 2009 Economy worsens, with a decline of at least 6 per cent in growth
      predicted this year
      Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

      source:
      www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html
    • stoje_i_patrze Niczego się nie nauczymy:) 05.03.09, 20:30
      www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/4944752/First-the-foreign-currency-binge-now-the-cold-turkey.html
    • stoje_i_patrze CEE - Europa wschodnia i centralna 07.03.09, 13:00
      tutaj gadka o sytuacji o tym
      • stoje_i_patrze wejsc nie wejsc o to jest pytanie 07.03.09, 13:14
        Spolka austriacka ktora udzielila wiele pozyczek w tym regionie twierdzi ze
        kryzys w regionie CEE jest nadmuchany medialnie i w rzeczywistosci jest lepiej:

        Erste Bank Says East European Debts Are ‘Negligible’
        www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=aQUKvr._LcIA&refer=east_europe
        March 6 (Bloomberg)
        • stoje_i_patrze Re: wejsc nie wejsc o to jest pytanie 07.03.09, 13:19
          Oczywista oczywistosc jest taka ze opinie wydal erste ktory jest MEGA
          zaangazowany w tym regionie. innymi slowy jemu zalezy na odbiciu bo moze
          zbankrutowac. to taka oczywista oczywistosc.
          • boorack Każdy kij ma dwa końce 07.03.09, 13:33
            Słabsza złotówka pogrążyła kredytobiorców i niektórych spekulujących
            eksporterów ale - z drugiej strony - pozytywne skutki widać przy granicach smile
            Mam wrażenie że ostatnia stabilizacja PLN to w duzym stopniu eksport i handel
            przygraniczny, i dopiero w mniejszym stopniu efekt interwencji władz (ale mogę
            się mylić).

            Niestety nie mam dostępu ani wiedzy żeby to przełożyć na konkretne liczby (tzn.
            co jest większe - zyski z eksportu czy straty na kredytach), może ktoś z
            forumowiczów jest w stanie jakoś to oszacować.

            Mamy siłę w postaci przyzwoicie wykształconych ludzi, w tym takich którzy
            właśnie wrócili z zagranicznego "treningu" i są tym bardziej wartościowi. Władza
            powinna teraz skupić się na maksymalnym aktywowaniu eksporterów oraz małych i
            średnich firm. Uproszczenie procedury zakładania firmy jest jakimś tam kroczkiem
            do przodu, choć to za mało. Trzeba redukować obciążenia (pytanie: jakie?) -
            szczególnie te związane z eksportem i eksportowanymi usługami.

        • stoje_i_patrze waluty w naszym regionie 07.03.09, 13:22
          O tym nie mozna oczywiscie zapomniec. zaczyna sie jednak granie na to co bedzie
          w lipcu. paru cwaniakow zaczyna wierzyc w to ze waluty powinny sie uspokoic i
          nawet stracic. zatem dla zagranicy tym lepiej wejsc teraz.

          mamy jeszcze jeden przypadek. wg mnie rownie realny - teraz odbicie do powiedzmy
          2500 na wig20 nawet a potem nowe dolki bo w wakacje bedzie jeszcze gorzej w
          gospodarkach
        • stoje_i_patrze marzec 07.03.09, 13:42
          i jeszcze jeden case
          marzec 1995, marzec1999 czy marzec 2003

          roslismysmile

          na wigu moze byc to albo juz odbicie albo ostatnie sucker rally. Po tym sucker
          rally (powiedmzy od maja) moze byc odbicie. nie zakladamy przy tym bankructwa
          krajów z CEE, ewentualnie byc w czarnej wegrów, 3B(trojki baltyckiej, litwy
          lotwy i estonii) oraz UA
          • stoje_i_patrze polowa marca 07.03.09, 13:44
            mysle tu jeszcze o odbiciu od polowy-koncowki marca. te ostatnie wzrosty (np
            kghm )moge zostac wykorzystane do zgarniecia zyskow.
        • stoje_i_patrze 1976-1978 07.03.09, 19:07
          www.mrci.com/special/dspi78.php
        • przycinek.usa Re: wejsc nie wejsc o to jest pytanie 07.03.09, 23:43
          rynek lubi ostatnio spadac 4 razy pod rzad na wykresie tygodniowym.
          Obecny tydzien powinien zamknac sie na plus - ale uwaga - przypuszczalnie
          nastepny tydzien znowu troche zleci. Osobiscie bede chcial cos kupic w
          poniedzialek, (w piatek juz zaczalem polowanie) ale obawiam sie, ze albo bedzie
          z tego kicha, albo wszystko odskoczy dynamicznie w gore. Co do FAS - to caly
          sektor jest skonczony. Moze bedzie odbicie, ale nie pchalbym sie. Ja koncentruje
          sie na pojedynczych spolkach, z zakresu transportu wodnego i kilka
          farmaceutycznych.
          • stoje_i_patrze Re: wejsc nie wejsc o to jest pytanie 08.03.09, 13:32
            Pozwole sobie nie zgodzic z Toba w kwesti FAS. Dlaczego? Doskonale wiesz, że
            zostałowyznaczonych 19 instytucji ktore przechodza teraz "crash test".
            Obstawiam,że zgodzisz sie ze stwierdzeniem (na podstawie historii dzialan
            wallstreets crooks) ze ten stress test bedzie, mowiac delikatnie, lewy. Wyjdzie
            pewnie z niego ze JPM jest SUPER dokapitalizowany i przygotowany. I tu klucz -
            czy rynki to lykna czy nie. calkiem mozliwe ze lykna (postawie na to pare $) i
            wtedy bedize odbicie (nie mniejsze niz 10% ale i wieksze, 10% t ominimum) na
            financials. chociaz jednodniowo co da DOBRZE zarobic.

            Totalnie by mnie zaskoczylo, gdybyfaktycznie ich prozadnie przeswietlili i
            powiedzieli by ze sa oni niewyplacalni (zgodne z prawda) a zatem
            nacjonalizujemyich chociaz czesciowo(co nie spodowalo by sie arabom i chinczykom
            bo to glowne osoby przeciwne nacjonalizacji w usa) caly ten bajzel lub pozwalamy
            imupasc kontrolowanie. dodatkowo faktycznie FED wprowadza przejzystosc do gry,w
            postaci np in komu i za ile dokladnie pozycza w ramach calej tej "spagetti
            programów" pomocowych.

            Majac jednak na uwadze niusa o AIG, mozna zaryzykowac stwierdzenie, ze chlopaki
            wiedza doskonale ze sa po prostu nie wyplacalni i caly system jest w czarnej.
            takie moje zalozenie, boja sie "force selling" i innych rzeczy, w tym upadku
            funduszy emerytalnych i wyjscia ludzi na ulice (ktorzy potracili swoje majatki).
            jesli mieli byna to dopuscic (transparency) to musza miec juz GOTOWY PLAN CO
            DALEJ. pewnie nad tym pracuja, bo gdyby go mieli juz teraz to by go wdrozyli a
            tak, na razie wstrzykuja kolejne dawki tego samego"leku/trucizny" ktory
            podtrzymuje organizm przy zyciu.
            • stoje_i_patrze Re: wejsc nie wejsc o to jest pytanie 08.03.09, 13:36
              Dodam ze zamknalem FAZ z duzym zyskiemw ten piatek i nie przewiduje w niego
              wejsc w najblizszym terminie. tak mi sie wydaje ze wyzej duzo nie pofrunie.

              z drugiejstrony firmy ubezpiczeneniowe moga niezle jeszcze namieszac (patrz
              aviva i inne z uk ktore odmowili raportowania w nowym standardzie czyli
              przyznaly sie nie wprost ze niewyplacalne)
            • stoje_i_patrze Dlaczego FAS 08.03.09, 22:06
              this Thursday, the House Financial Services Subcomittee will meet to discuss
              "mark to market" accounting and whether it should be repealed.
    • stoje_i_patrze Erste raport do pociagniecia 09.03.09, 11:36
      raport do pociagniecia


      nie pytac co i jaksmile

      hostuje.net/file.php?id=84775d2dec4c63aaaa8692f7cb56d869
      • dorota_3 Czyli nie taki diabeł straszny... 09.03.09, 11:53
        Naprawdę dobre, czyli jak się okazuje rewelacje na których Ambroży
        swoje czarne wizje opierał były ....lekko przesadzone.
        Wkleję ten raport Erste na mój wątek o bankach europejskich.
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