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18.11.07, 02:21
WHEN Francisco Suares, a Portuguese explorer, wrote home to his brother in
Lisbon about Brazil's natural bounty in 1596, he declared himself “ashamed to
write it, fearing that I shall not be believed.” And so it remains today.
Brazil's forests are bigger than anywhere else's. Its soil is so fertile that
some trees grow to full maturity quicker than people do. Beneath the soil lie
huge mineral deposits that are raw material for China's double-digit growth.
Brazil is already on its way to becoming an alternative-energy superpower. And
as if to prove a popular saying that “God is Brazilian”, it now seems that
there are billions more barrels of oil than previously thought lying beneath
deep waters off the country's coastline.

Just how many billions is unclear, but Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled
oil company, announced earlier this month that it reckons the Tupi oilfield
contains between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels. That may not quite yet put
Brazil in the same league as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, as Dilma Rousseff,
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's chief of staff who also chairs
Petrobras's board, excitedly proclaimed. But the higher estimate would make
the Tupi field alone equal to all of Norway's reserves. It contains light
crude, which is less expensive to refine and therefore worth more. And there
may be other big deposits to be found nearby.

José Sergio Gabrielli, Petrobras's chief executive, refuses to speculate about
how big an oil power Brazil might become. But he does concede that there is
the potential for many more discoveries on the scale of Tupi—which itself is
the world's second-biggest strike in 20 years, after Kazakhstan's 12
billion-barrel Kashagan field, discovered in 2000.

Most of Brazil's oil comes from the Campos basin, in the waters off Rio de
Janeiro. It is typically found at depths of 1,000-2,000 metres below the
seabed. Below that lies a huge layer of salt, at some points more than a mile
thick. This stretches both north and south to the hitherto less prolific
basins of Espirito Santo and Santos. It is below the salt, in the Santos
basin, that Petrobras discovered Tupi. The company has also found “sub-salt”
oil in Espirito Santo, although it has not yet assessed the scale of this. Mr
Gabrielli believes that the two basins have yielded relatively little oil to
date not because it is not there, but because it lies deeper underground,
below the salt.

Tupi's oil will be hard to extract. Petrobras is a world leader in deep-water
oil production, but Tupi is farther down than any of its existing fields.
Drilling through the salt layer and the hard rock beneath brings further
technical difficulties. The first test-well alone cost $240m. Moreover, there
is a shortage of skilled labour and equipment throughout the oil industry at
the moment—although Mr Gabrielli says Petrobras can transfer staff and
resources from other projects if necessary.

Despite these caveats, it is reasonable to assume that Brazil's economy and
currency will get a boost when the oil starts flowing, it is hoped, in 2010.
The discovery might also tip the balance of power in South America further in
Brazil's favour. Already self-sufficient in oil, Brazil is now likely to
become a significant exporter. That may reduce the clout of Venezuela's
oil-rich president, Hugo Chávez, in the region. As if to underline this,
Petrobras announced on November 13th that it was pulling out of a joint
venture in Venezuela.

Brazil's drive towards oil self-sufficiency follows the opening up of the
industry to foreign investment in the 1990s, when the government also floated
some 40% of Petrobras's shares on the stockmarket. Britain's BG Group has a
25% stake in the Tupi field, and Portugal's Galp Energia holds 10%.

The government followed up the announcement of the Tupi field by withdrawing
neighbouring blocks from an auction of exploration rights due later this
month. That might signal rising petro-nationalism. But it also looked prudent,
since those blocks may be worth much more as more becomes known about Tupi.

Amid the euphoria, which included an instant leap of 26% in Petrobras's share
price, came suspicion about the timing of the announcement. Less than a week
after it was made, the company announced a poor set of results, with operating
profit down 22% compared with the same quarter last year.

Petrobras has also faced mounting difficulties in supplying natural gas to
thermal power plants, especially since its fields in Bolivia were
quasi-nationalised last year. Some see the Tupi announcement as an attempt to
distract attention from this. “It is like throwing a second ball onto a
football pitch when the game is going against you,” says Alexandre Marinis of
Mosaico, a political consultancy.

Electricity rationing under the previous government in 2001-2 helped Lula to
win office. One solution now would be to raise the price of gas, but officials
are worried that this would feed into inflation, and jeopardise the scope for
further cuts in interest rates. Mario Pereira, an energy consultant, reckons
that the risk of electricity shortages should wane after 2008, if Petrobras
completes a planned liquefied natural-gas terminal on time.

That may be a big if. Lula and Ms Rousseff, a former Trotskyist who is
sometimes touted as a potential presidential candidate for the ruling Workers'
Party, were keen to associate the government with Petrobras's strike. But the
oil may not start flowing until after the next presidential election in 2010.
Energy may be an electoral headache rather than a boon for the government, if
not for the country.
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