Na razie nic się nie dzieje, nowozelandzki NZSE40 próbuje testować szczyt
wszechczasów i zapewne do tego testu dojdzie. Ale...sami poczytajcie:
"The US had a record 7% (of GDP) trade deficit in the fourth quarter of 2005.
But New Zealand saw its deficit hit 8.9% of GDP."
"But a quintessential star performer that has benefited from strong commodity
prices in the last few years provided a warning that could be the beginning
of a global market ripple effect. After 21 consecutive quarters of gains, New
Zealand surprised economists both at home and abroad with the report that its
economy had contracted 0.1% in Q4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had
previously forecast a growth rate of 2.4% for the year and 0.4% for the
quarter. There was little doubt that few, including the New Zealand Reserve
Bank governor, expected such a rapid drop. And New Zealand was not the only
"New Zealand has seen its currency drop more than 18% in the year ending
March 2006. This should actually be expected, as large trade deficits have in
the past eventually resulted in falling currency values. Everywhere, so far,
except in the United States, where the dollar's reserve status and a
powerhouse economy have kept the dollar higher than economic theory and
history would have predicted.
There is another similarity between the US and New Zealand. "Housing prices
jumped 75% between late 2001 and 2005. Even with 2-year fixed rates at 8.3%
and floating rates of 9.6% as of January 2006, home prices were still
appreciating at nearly 15% annually at the end of 2005."
And household debt? Household debt in NZ has risen from 100% of income in
1999 to 150% by the end of 2005, the majority of which is mortgage debt.
Rising debt. Soaring housing prices. Monster trade deficits. A rapidly
falling currency. But investors are not worried. Note that the NZ stock
market has risen nearly 10% in 2006."
Następny kandydat do przewrotki po Islandii i krajach arabskich?
Burza coraz bliżej....