bush_w_wodzie
22.10.04, 17:40
mysle ze na sprawe orlenu warto spojrzec w nieco szerszym kontekscie.
na przyklad poczytac co pisza o sytuacji rosjanie w swoim branzowym periodyku.
numer z pocztku roku.
http://www.oilru.com/or/15/169/
Stanislav Roginsky
PRAGMATIC POSSIBILITIES
For more than half a century Central Europe has been a strategically important
region for the Russian oil and gas industry both because of its significance
as a transit route and because of the predominance of Russian oil and gas on
its market. The system of economic ties, which existed at the time when the
socialist camp was still strong and which later collapsed almost everywhere,
has lately been developing steadily in the oil and gas sphere. Both sides have
shown interest in the normal movement of Russian oil, and the acceptable
mechanisms of oil supply and transit have been preserved.
Moving toward "greater" Europe
Quick and effective economic reforms and a well-considered investment policy
have resulted in a stable growth of production in Poland, Czechia, Slovakia
and Hungary, and their economies have attracted sizable foreign investments.
Their successes in the economic sphere have facilitated the integration of
these countries into various Euro-Atlantic structures. For instance, in 1999
Poland, Czechia and Hungary joined NATO. Approximately about that time there
arose the question of their membership of the European Union which is the main
trading partner of the Central European countries. That is why former
socialist countries faced the need of modernizing their economies to bring
them in line with high Western European standards. In the process, their
governments paid particular attention to the implementation of energy-saving
and environmentally friendly technologies aimed at minimizing air, soil and
water pollution.
A result of the efforts made by the Central European countries was that on
April 16, 2003, the European Union summit held in Athens decided that on May
1, 2004, Poland, Hungary and Czechia would become full-fledged EU members.
Obviously, certain changes resulting these countries joining the European
Union will take place in the oil and gas segment of the European energy
market. Russian companies are already working on a new strategy for their
activities in Central Europe, one that would take into account the on-going
integration processes there.
In terms of proven oil reserves, the four above-mentioned Central European
countries are rather unimportant-even by European standards. As estimated by
the International Energy Agency (IEA), Hungary's reserves total 102.5 million
barrels and Poland's - 96.4 million barrels, while those of Czechia and
Slovakia are quite insignificant - 15 and 9 million barrels, respectively.
Because of the absence of large proven reserves of oil suitable for commercial
development, in 2001-2002 oil production in the region was approximately
47,000 barrels per day. Nevertheless, even in the absence of good prospects
for any sizable reserves increment, prospecting works, in which a number of
foreign companies take part, continue. According to IEA estimates, in 2002 the
Central European countries managed, with their own oil production, to meet
approximately 5.7% of their domestic demand for that type of fuel.
Since the time of the "socialist commonwealth" 12 refineries are operating in
the region. Together they are capable of processing about 826,000 barrels of
oil per day (according to the estimates published in the Oil and Gas Journal).
Obviously, these, close to markets facilities and the existing oil pipeline
system are of major interest of the large foreign companies intending to
preserve or enter that regional market.
The Central European oil transportation hub
Despite the presence of several regional oil and gas companies (for instance,
Hungary's MOL and Poland's PKN Orlen), which are quite competitive, Russian
oil majors are becoming active at the Central European market, acquiring
assets both in the field of hydrocarbon transportation and refining.
However, when Poland, Hungary and Czechia become EU members, they will have to
abide by the EU rules, which may affect the prospects of their cooperation
with the Russian oil industry.
Today, the Druzhba oil pipeline, constructed back in the Soviet time, is still
the chief trunk line which connects Russia with Central Europe. Actually, the
pipeline has three branches which pass through the territory of all the
countries of the region. The northern branch brings crude oil to Poland and
Germany; the central branch passes across Czechia and Slovakia, while the
southern branch turns off to Hungary and there it joins with the Adria
pipeline, reaching eventually the Croatian port of Omisal. According to the
Russian Energy Ministry, 51.7 million tons of oil were transported in 2002
along that major trunk line linking Russia with Europe (and that not counting
the deliveries to the oil refineries in the Baltic countries).
The Central European countries have been exploring possibilities of buying
hydrocarbons not only from Russia. But first of all, in order to achieve some
sort of real diversification of oil deliveries they had to find new suppliers
who would be prepared to appear on those countries' markets and, secondly, to
find a pipeline which would bring that oil to these markets.
For Central Europe, one of the possibilities to diversify oil deliveries could
be signing agreements with Caspian producers, who today increasingly orient
themselves to projects associated with the Mediterranean. The only alternative
to the Russian oil transportation system now is the Ukrainian Odessa-Brody
pipeline which was built in 2001. According to Ukraine's Naftogaz company, its
throughput is estimated at 9 to 14 million tons per year. There are plans of
extending this pipeline to the Polish city of Gdansk. But without EU support
and, more importantly, without securing stable oil deliveries such extension
is hardly possible. Today, however, neither Azerbaijan nor Kazakhstan is
prepared to supply oil to Central Europe along the Odessa-Brody pipeline. The
most optimistic forecasts made by Ukrainian experts say that in 2004 this
pipeline may be filled with oil to the half of its capacity only.
Today, only oil deliveries to Czechia have been diversified. The MERO pipeline
keeps the country supplied with oil which comes from the Italian port of
Trieste through a trans-Alpine network of pipelines.
And so the question of a real full-scale diversification of oil deliveries
remains an open one, and in the foreseeable future Russian companies will
retain their foothold on that market. There is at least one oil and gas
company in the region which is trying to work quite aggressively - even in the
constrained conditions of Central Europe. This is the Hungarian state-owned
company MOL which can offer some competition to Russian companies, primarily
in the field of refining. In its strategic planning today, the Hungarian
company focuses on refining as the most profitable line of activity.
This company has tried to conduct an aggressive strategic policy of expansion
in other countries of the region. For instance, in 2001-2002 its targets were
the Greek Hellenic Petroleum (HP) and the Polish PKN Orlen - two companies
which were also of interest to Russian companies, including JSC LUKOIL.
Today, MOL's capitalization is $2.3 billion, and its management, as well as
the Hungarian government, see the way to raising its operating efficiency,
once Hungary has joined the European Union, in its partial privatization which
will be implemented in the new conditions on the basis of the EU legislation.
To a degree, Russian companies may be interested in buying a block of MOL
shares. However, practice shows that Russian companies are mainly interested
in acquiring a controlling interest which enables the buyer