the end of new europe

29.10.05, 01:45
oh how sour....

www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,,1602405,00.html
Poland's disenchanted killed off 'New Europe'

Poverty and regional inequality helped win votes for a socially conservative,
nationalist and Catholic president

Jonathan Steele
Friday October 28, 2005
The Guardian


"New Europe" is dead, and that's official. The verdict is not that of an
obscure thinktank. It comes from the central actor in the heartland of what
was once deemed to be a bold new part of the old continent, namely the people
of Poland.
In two recent elections, for parliament in September and for the presidency
on Sunday, they gave most support to a party which wants a strong state and
is highly suspicious of the free-market reforms of the last 15 years. It also
has major reservations about the European Union.

Its victory offers an important reality check against the hot air of
yesterday's Hampton Court talkathon and Tony Blair's latest calls to step up
the pace of liberal reform. The biggest of the EU's new members is as
attached to the old social model and as anxious about unregulated
globalisation as the "no" voters in the French and Dutch referendums.
The "new Europe" tag was invented by Donald Rumsfeld in the run-up to the
invasion of Iraq and initially covered foreign policy. Flushed with their
post-communist freedom, it was claimed, eastern and central Europeans
understood the value of Washington's international campaign to promote
democracy better than western Europeans did. The claim soon proved
inaccurate. The governments of "new Europe" supported the war, but majorities
in the polls did not. Poles and Czechs were no more enthusiastic about having
their troops in Iraq than people in Britain.

"New Europe" was then used to categorise attitudes to internal EU reform. It
is this simplification which Poland's voters have exposed. The victorious Law
and Justice party offers a traditional Catholic and nationalist platform,
which is more about protecting inherited values than promoting further reform.

On social issues president-elect Lech Kaczynski is a man of the right, a
critic of homosexuality and an advocate of the death penalty. After "nice"
Lech Walesa, the Solidarity founder who became Poland's first non-communist
president, we now have a "nasty" Lech, whose election was greeted in Brussels
with warnings that he would be watched for any violation of EU standards. His
twin brother, Jaroslaw, who led the Law and Justice party to victory in
parliamentary elections, has similar views. He did not triumph outright and
is still embroiled in fierce negotiations for a "grand coalition" which make
Angela Merkel's enforced marriage to the social democrats in next-door
Germany look simple.

The fact that Walesa and the two Kaczynskis are all former Solidarity
activists shows how far Polish politics has moved from the romanticism of
1989 - and how much Solidarity, even in its first years, was an amalgam of
not easily reconcilable interests: workers' rights, Catholic nationalism and
westernising liberalism, to name just a few.

Simple slogans about freedom tended to exaggerate the political dimension of
the Polish revolution. It also contained an important economic core. What
happened in this autumn's Polish elections is the return of economics. During
Poland's 16 years of neoliberal reforms, it did not matter much whether the
governments which brought them in were post-communists or anti-communists.
Economic strategies remained the same.

Now the electorate wants a rethink. At least those who voted do.
Disenchantment with politicians of all stripes is high, with barely 40%
taking part in September, the lowest turnout since 1989. The Civic Platform,
which had expected to win but came second in both polls, is a radical "flat
tax" party which advocates a 16% rate across the board. "Flat tax", which
unashamedly goes against the philosophy that governments have a duty to
promote income redistribution, was almost Angela Merkel's undoing as well.
Her proposal to appoint a flat-taxer as finance minister caused a huge slump
in her campaign.

Poland's elections exposed a divided country in which regional inequalities
have got worse. The geographical split is not unlike Ukraine's. Poland's poor
rural east and "rust belt", areas that benefited from postwar
industrialisation and are now struggling, voted for the Kaczynskis. Warsaw
and the more prosperous north and west chose the flat-taxers.

The results should not have been a surprise. The World Bank has just
published its latest survey of central Europe and the former Soviet Union.
The bank is hardly a leftwing propaganda outfit but its report, Growth,
Poverty, and Inequality, shows how far the region still has to go to make up
for the fall in living standards which came with the collapse of communism.
In 1988 only 4% of the region's people were poor - defined as having an
income of less than £1.25 a day. Now poverty affects 12%.

This is better than five years ago, when poverty affected 20% of the region's
people. Things have got better thanks largely to the rise in world oil
prices, which has pulled up the economy of Russia and some of its immediate
neighbours. Among the countries covered by the World Bank, the eight new EU
members are much better off. But the report shows that Poland, alone among
them, has seen a further increase in poverty over the last five years.

It also found a growth in inequality between regions, with prosperity largely
confined to capital cities while smaller towns and rural areas suffered. The
World Bank notes that subjective impressions also matter. It talks of
the "transition shock" caused by the sudden switch to market economics. "The
socialist legacy of high access to social services (eg, heating) and
infrastructure (eg, healthcare) which have since been eroded means that
people feel an acute sense of deprivation," it says.

The lesson for the future is that assessments of progress and popular
satisfaction must include socioeconomic factors as well as levels of
political freedom. EU governments should not get involved in narrow crusades.
Poland's neighbour, Belarus - which the US secretary of state, Condoleezza
Rice, has called "Europe's last dictatorship" - is sure to attract attention
next year when it holds presidential elections. The World Bank survey is
relevant here. While poverty went up in Poland, Belarus saw one of the
sharpest declines, enjoying "broad-based economic growth beneficial to
labour" in which the "benefits were broadly shared by the population".

Few doubt that the Belarus election will be less pluralistic than Poland's;
but social solidarity, a strong state, and a government which attempts to
lessen inequalities are what Polish voters have shown they want. The people
of Belarus probably have similar views.

j.steele@guardian.co.uk
    • usenetposts Re: the end of new europe 29.10.05, 02:50
      What people need to realise is that the folk have spoke, and that Lech is
      democratically e-lech-ted.

      Therefore, Brussels can watch him all they like, but they are not elected as
      President of Poland, he is.
      • nasza_maggie Re: the end of new europe 29.10.05, 20:12
        you mean jaroslaw.
        • ianek70 Re: Jarosław 29.10.05, 20:33
          If the rumours about Jarek are true, as they apparently are, then how come it
          was only Leszek had a moustache?
          As a taxpayer, I've got a right to know.
          • kylie1 Re: Jarosław 29.10.05, 21:35
            That's a good question and I will answer it.
            See, as a tax payer you want to know how much you can TRIM the moustache and
            how that will reflect on your "tax trimming". If Jaroslaw doesn't have a
            moustache, then I would probably worry that there is nothing more to trim from.
            Conclusion: if that's the case, you are probably looking at the same taxes for
            a looooong time. As a tax payer, it might NOT be good news for you.

            In any case, I thought you'd might like my approach. Something to think about...

            Kylie smile
            • nasza_maggie Re: Jarosław 30.10.05, 18:15
              you guys make me laugh!!!
              smile)))))))))))))))))))))))
              • kylie1 Re: Jarosław 30.10.05, 19:42
                That's good, Maggie. Laughter is good. It makes life so much easier and it can
                be so much fun!

                smile smile

                Kylie
      • bartis_ervin Re: the end of new europe 02.11.05, 10:48

        During the last century there were enough "dark" figures who got democratically
        elected. The fact that they were elected doesn't make them less "dark".

        Anyway, Poland will have Lech for 5 years (unless he will do something extremely
        stupid, which I don't really think because he is a lot smarter than that). Let's
        just see what he will do. Personally, I don't like him, but maybe he will be a
        good President. Let's just wait and see!

        About the Government and the Parliament I am a lot more sceptical. Simply PiS
        doesn't know what to do now. We'll see where will their popularity be after 6
        months. Especially if they are serious about the minority government.

        Ervin

        thebartiski.blogspot.com
    • waldek1610 who's unhappy of growing power of Eastern Europe? 31.10.05, 10:41
      This article is nothing more than a western "cry from the grave", or rather
      economic depresion in which western european countries found themselves. Faced
      with loosing vital number of votes in EU institutions countries such as France,
      England, and Germany; envy Poland its new found political power.

      If we add that this "power" is in hands of polish conservatives it is obvious
      that predominantly liberal Europe is not very happy about sharing some of their
      EU power with Poland.

      Considering that in order to win French people support for enlarging EU in 2004
      French governement told French public that "they (French) not going to loose
      anything, because France is going to change anything, but it is only going to
      be larger....." Such a comments show exactly what intentions the EU big
      countries had...They surely hoped to control Poland politicaly and economicaly.
      Their bold design obviously failed and they are now very unhappy.

      I heard the interview with some of the French citizens who year later
      complained that they were promised that; "France going to be BIGGER after
      Poland and other east european countries joined EU"... it clearly shows how
      ignorant and selfish western european societies are...
    • bartis_ervin Re: the end of new europe 02.11.05, 11:03

      I understand that you have to sell the newspaper, but titles like "Poland's
      disenchanted killed off 'New Europe'" make me sick. Why get so dramatical?
      I don't really think that Poland will kill off Europe. At least not nowsmile
      I don't like the Kaczynscy either but the world won't collapse.

      The first sentence is even worse: "New Europe" is dead, and that's official.
      I also write to Hungarian and Romanian newspapers but I would never write a
      sentence like this.

      I agree with the article but by over-dramatizing it gives the wrong picture.

      "Few doubt that the Belarus election will be less pluralistic than Poland's".
      Extremely euphemistic..

      And I have to check those World Bank surveys.

      Ervin

      thebartiski.blogspot.com
      • ianek70 Re: the end of new europe 02.11.05, 12:09
        bartis_ervin napisał:

        >
        > I understand that you have to sell the newspaper, but titles like "Poland's
        > disenchanted killed off 'New Europe'" make me sick. Why get so dramatical?
        > I don't really think that Poland will kill off Europe. At least not nowsmile
        > I don't like the Kaczynscy either but the world won't collapse.
        >
        > The first sentence is even worse: "New Europe" is dead, and that's official.
        > I also write to Hungarian and Romanian newspapers but I would never write a
        > sentence like this.
        >
        > I agree with the article but by over-dramatizing it gives the wrong picture.

        It is a bit melodramatic, but it makes sense in the context of Bush's concept
        of Old and New Europe, which most western Europeans found patronizing and
        annoying.
        Old Europe = countries where most people were against Washington's war in Iraq,
        and the government didn't support it either.
        New Europe = countries where most people were against Washington's war in Iraq,
        but the government supported it anyway.
        • portulaco Re: the end of new europe 02.11.05, 13:05
          Well... I already said in another topic about George Bush "Oil Wars" and a new
          world order following the events of 11 September but nobody commented and
          that's exactly what it is about.

          Poland is following this agenda since the moment Polish army is in Iraq so the
          so called disenchantment - if so - comes from the people and the local media.
    • firemouse The end of OLD europe 03.11.05, 01:59
      England has been always known as an eccentric society, but this article is really hilarious:

      > Poverty and regional inequality helped win votes for a socially conservative,
      > nationalist and Catholic president

      If 3 million social flats are socially conservative, I don't dare to think what is socially progressive.

      > It comes from the central actor in the heartland of what
      > was once deemed to be a bold new part of the old continent, namely the people
      > of Poland.

      Funny, we - people of Poland - are central actor. Bad thing is, in new part of old continent. I have not
      registered any seismic activity here.

      > The Civic Platform,
      > which had expected to win but came second in both polls, is a radical "flat
      > tax" party which advocates a 16% rate across the board.

      A journalist from the country, which almost implemented POLL tax, thinks that flat tax is radical. No
      comments.

      > "Flat tax", which
      > unashamedly goes against the philosophy that governments have a duty to
      > promote income redistribution,

      Well, it does. At least in two ways. First, people who do some real job (us) pay tax, which keep alive
      those who do no job at all (politicians, MP). Just look at the statistics of appearance at parliament
      sessions. Second, if the lower tax on higher income leaves me more money, I can employ additional
      people (increasing their income), or spend it on whatever I want (incuding charity societys). Just the
      problem is, I can spend it on whatever I want, not on what government wants.

      > In 1988 only 4% of the region's people were poor - defined as having an
      > income of less than ?1.25 a day. Now poverty affects 12%.

      Yeah, sure. This is probably the best hit of the article. In 1988 the average monthly income in Poland
      was 8 USD (according to real exchange rate, not official one), so say 5 GBP. This makes 0.16 GBP daily
      income. How they come to 4% number, I get no idea. The official exchange rate lifted the numbers to
      (AFAIR) 35 USD. Still below the poverty level. Assuming that Poland with 38 mln inhabitants represents
      about 20% of region population (former east bloc excluding ex-DDR and Russia) of 185 mln (the
      numbers may be incorrect, but not significantly), our beloved country itself contradicts the World bank
      report. Anybody who paid for this report has thrown the money through the window. Bad thing is, we
      are paying for current reports...

      > Things have got better thanks largely to the rise in world oil
      > prices, which has pulled up the economy of Russia and some of its immediate
      > neighbours.

      Russia, OK. But immediate neighbours? Russia does not agree for any raise in transit prices, and if they
      sell the oil with higher prices, the neighbouring economies must reflect this in their inflation. BTW, this
      helped Belarus economy so much that they have not paid for delivered oil (or was it gas?) and Russia
      cut the supply to Poland too...

      > "The
      > socialist legacy of high access to social services (eg, heating) and
      > infrastructure (eg, healthcare) which have since been eroded means that
      > people feel an acute sense of deprivation," it says.

      World Bank again. They call heating a social service and healthcare - an infrastructure. My English must
      be really bad - I thought it is opposite.

      > Few doubt that the Belarus election will be less pluralistic than Poland's;

      Surprisingly, I share this view; I don't think that they get six parties in Parliament there. Not mentioning
      German or any other minority. And independent MPs.

      Now I must say that I know a lot of (well - some) English, who understand our region; can recall the
      names of places and people, know history and can understand how people think. Now, Guardian puts
      his Senior Foreign Editor to the frontline to make the Poland's bashing for bad choice look more
      powerful; but how a Senior foreign editor, who is supposed to know the reality of country, which he
      writes about, may ask Anna Politkovskaya (who wrote Putins Russia) "what the reception of the book
      had been in Russia." "Politkovskaya explained that the book was not published in Russian, and that the
      book?s subject matter [a critical appraisal of the Russia that has emerged under Putin's leadership]
      meant that it was unlikely to ever find a publisher in Russia." - this is what he should know! (Full story:
      www.englishpen.org/events/recentevents/annapolitkovskayainconversatio/ )

      So please all do not take this article seriously. We here are from London's perspective just amalgamate
      of strange names and customs, not differentiating each from other. English, no offence was intended. I
      just think this particular guy is an idiot.

      FM
      • ianek70 Re: The end of OLD europe 03.11.05, 11:19
        firemouse napisał:

        > If 3 million social flats are socially conservative, I don't dare to think
        what
        > is socially progressive.

        3 million social flats is just a mad populist pre-election promise. It won't
        happen.

        > A journalist from the country, which almost implemented POLL tax, thinks that
        f
        > lat tax is radical. No
        > comments.

        The flat tax is radical. The poll tax was not implemented in England because
        the vast majority of people were against it, including (perhaps?) that
        journalist. Britain is a democracy and journalists don't have to pretend to
        support the idiotic policies of previous governments.
        Part of the reason the poll tax wasn't introduced in England is that they tried
        it for a year in Scotland, where it wasn't accepted, didn't work and couldn't
        be collected due to the organised physical resistance of the people.
        Compare this to the situation in Poland, where people just sit on their arses
        and moan about how unfair life is, but don't actually do anything about it.

        > Second, if the lower tax on higher income leaves me more money, I can
        > employ additional
        > people

        You employ people from you own private pocket? And not from your company's
        money?
        • firemouse Re: The end of OLD europe 03.11.05, 19:41
          ianek70 napisał:

          > firemouse napisał:
          >
          > > If 3 million social flats are socially conservative, I don't dare to thin
          > k
          > what
          > > is socially progressive.
          >
          > 3 million social flats is just a mad populist pre-election promise. It won't
          > happen.

          A socially conservative politician would never make such promise.

          > > A journalist from the country, which almost implemented POLL tax, thinks
          > that
          > f
          > > lat tax is radical. No
          > > comments.
          >
          > The flat tax is radical. The poll tax was not implemented in England because
          > the vast majority of people were against it, including (perhaps?) that
          > journalist. Britain is a democracy and journalists don't have to pretend to
          > support the idiotic policies of previous governments.
          > Part of the reason the poll tax wasn't introduced in England is that they tried
          >
          > it for a year in Scotland, where it wasn't accepted, didn't work and couldn't
          > be collected due to the organised physical resistance of the people.
          > Compare this to the situation in Poland, where people just sit on their arses
          > and moan about how unfair life is, but don't actually do anything about it.

          If somebody makes nothing to help his cause, no one tax scheme (read: robbery) would change it. And
          this is proven that government agencies waste up to 90% of the money which they receive, so
          contribution of national product through collecting taxes and then redistributing them through
          government channels is simply waste of our money. And no, we do not have any public healthcare now.
          We just need to say it loud and put our money out of NFZ reach.

          > > Second, if the lower tax on higher income leaves me more money, I can
          > > employ additional
          > > people
          >
          > You employ people from you own private pocket? And not from your company's
          > money?

          Accidently, yes. But this refers also to the broader situation - if you pay your neighbor's son for
          washing your car, you employ him, however you pay no taxes on this and there is no formal contract.
          • ianek70 Re: The end of OLD europe 03.11.05, 20:16
            firemouse napisał:

            > ianek70 napisał:

            > > 3 million social flats is just a mad populist pre-election promise. It wo
            > n't
            > > happen.
            >
            > A socially conservative politician would never make such promise.

            Yes he would. He would just promise that the private sector would pay for it,
            rather than the taxpayers.

            There are only two ways of achieving power:
            1. Promise things
            2. Threaten things
            • firemouse Re: The end of OLD europe 03.11.05, 22:12
              ianek70 napisał:

              > There are only two ways of achieving power:
              > 1. Promise things
              > 2. Threaten things

              I really like this one!

              But in an afterthought, this is actually true - scaring...
        • nasza_maggie Re: The end of OLD europe 04.11.05, 12:06
          physical resistance of the people.
          > Compare this to the situation in Poland, where people just sit on their arses
          > and moan about how unfair life is, but don't actually do anything about it.


          Ouch!
          Vive La resistance!!!!smile))))))
        • gfunkallstars Re: The end of OLD europe 05.11.05, 11:38
          Poll tax was implemented in England - I remember it well sad

          www.bbc.co.uk/history/timelines/england/pwar_poll_tax.shtml
          • usenetposts Re: The end of OLD europe 05.11.05, 11:51
            gfunkallstars napisał:

            > Poll tax was implemented in England - I remember it well sad
            >
            > www.bbc.co.uk/history/timelines/england/pwar_poll_tax.shtml

            Watt?
          • ianek70 Re: The end of OLD europe 05.11.05, 13:23
            gfunkallstars napisał:

            > Poll tax was implemented in England - I remember it well sad

            Ah, the good old days. Chaucer was the main man, Black Death killed off all the
            softies and you could buy a pig for a penny.

            Baroness Thatcher (they still had baronesses in the 20th century?) is as
            popular today as ever:

            www.theherald.co.uk/news/50188.html
            • portulaco Re: The end of OLD europe 07.11.05, 11:21
              Forum friends,

              The recent happenings in France are the proof that Europe is facing a general
              discontentment and politicians don't know how to cope with this.

              Blind and unjustified fury against private property as we see in France and now
              even in Belgium and Germany are - between others - the result of decades of
              fake promises disajusted urban organization and discontrolled immigration.

              Shengen space and the construction of a so called New Europe seems to be more
              and more far away from becoming reality and closer to utopia.

              Any country in EU want's to assume responsability in the causes for the
              beginning of a general clash in our continent.

              As George Orwell said; "Speaking the truth in times of universal deceit is a
              revolutionary act".
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