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Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja...

IP: 213.199.197.* 13.06.04, 14:42
POrzyklad: wedlug zalecen miedzynarodowych (ILO) jak pracujesz 1 (jedna)
godzine w tygodniu, to juz nie jestes bezrobotny... Owszem, prezes GM czy
nawet Orlenu utrzyma sie przy swej pensji z godziny pracy na tydzien, ale
zwykly czlowiek? Statystyki midzynarodowe to wiec czysta SF. Wiem cos o tym,
bo doktorat (PhD) pisalem wlasnie z politycznej SF...
Pozdr.
Kagan
Obserwuj wątek
          • kamila_z_nz Re: Owszem. Już Trzecia Edycja :) a w USA 3,5... 15.06.04, 12:05
            forum.gazeta.pl/forum/72,2.html?f=30&w=13394989&a=13431321
            to samo dotyczy oceny potencjału gospodarczego Rosji ,w jednych żródłach dochód
            rosyjski na łba wynosi 4100,-USD,według CIA 2004 wypada wyższy niż na polskiego
            łba (niż w Polsce ponad 10.000 USD)i wynosi 10.600 USD (według CIA Białorus też
            jest wyżej rozwinięta niż zacofana gospodarczo Polska z uwagi na zlokalizowany
            na jej terenie olbrzymi przemysł obronny - kosmiczny, laserowy i radarowo-
            mikroelektroniczny w Mińsku i w Brześciu).Jest to o tyle niebezpieczne dla
            samych Amerykańców iż dotąd nie wiedzą z kim tak naprawdę w sensie potencjału
            gospodarczego mają do czynienia. Chciałbym by Rosjanie wodzili tych tępaków
            jeszcze przez najbliższe dwadzieścia lat aż do momentu całkowitego ponownego
            odzyskania przez ROSJĘ panowania nad światem bo jest jako
            posiadaczka "Hearthlandu"{Huntington} Ziemi niejako stworzona do zdecydowanego
            i bezwzględnego panowania nad całą kulą ziemską i wyskoki Wałęsy , Michnika,
            Gieremka czy Reagana, wariatki Thatcher czy też Zbigniewa Brzezińskiego nic na
            tym polu nie zdziałają (jego ostatnia książka "Le grand echiquier" to zestaw
            pobożnych życzeń jak łatwo i przyjemnie" udupić" Rosję, która jest za
            inteligentna by dać się wrobić w prymitywną amerykańską geopolitykę i jej
            antykomunistycznych apologetów w rodzaju Wałęsy z piekła rodem.

            Moja wersja z obserwacji nawet ostatnio budowanej gigantycznej elektrowni
            atomowej w Bałakowie koło Saratowa nad Wołgą(6000 MW) czy też systemu dział
            laserowych koło Semipałatyńska do zestrzeliwania satelitów i centrum dowodzenia
            pod górą Alantaj w Baszkirii - ten dochód PPP to mniej więcej 13.900 USD/łba i
            jest na pewno wyższy niż w Polsce(wystarczy spojrzeć na jakość taniego
            budownictwa socjalnego w Rosji i w Polsce - nowe tanie budownictwo w PL pod
            względem wykończenia, pracochłonności i infrastruktury osiedli i elewacji domów
            to autentyczne tym razem już kapitalistyczne polskie"slumsy").
            ;)
      • Gość: felusiak Re: Statystyki "NIE KŁAMNIOM" (TYLKO KŁAMIĄ) IP: *.nyc.rr.com 13.06.04, 23:07
        Bardzo zrecznie napisany artykul ale nie zupelnie odpowiada rzeczywistosci.
        Otoz autor z premedytacja nie zauwaza w jaki sposob dokonuje sie wyliczania
        poziomu bezrobocia a jak liczy sie dane o zatrudnieniu.
        Otoz metodologia zbierania danych jest tak rozna, ze nie mozna jej w zadnym
        wypadku porownac a tym bardziej snuc dywagacji w formie w jakiej robi to pan
        Alex Wallenwein.
        Otoz dane o zatrudnieniu pochodza z raportow jakie firmy wysylaja co jakis czas
        ( w zaleznosci od sumy plac - miesiecznie lub kwartalnie) do stanowych
        departanentow pracy i stanowych departamentow finansow. Natomiast dane o
        wskazniku bezrobocia pochodza z comiesiecznych sondazy 60 tysiecy gospodarstw
        domowych.
        Mozna powiedziec NICE TRY, MR WALLENWEIN.

        PS. Artykul Wallenweina zamieszczony zostal w portalu, ktory doradza inwestorom.
        Po takich poradach zwykle mozna pojsc boso i bez portek.
        • rajchman Re: Statystyki "NIE KŁAMNIOM" (TYLKO KŁAMIĄ) 14.06.04, 19:10
          Gość portalu: felusiak napisał(a):

          > Bardzo zrecznie napisany artykul ale nie zupelnie odpowiada rzeczywistosci.
          > Otoz autor z premedytacja nie zauwaza w jaki sposob dokonuje sie wyliczania
          > poziomu bezrobocia a jak liczy sie dane o zatrudnieniu.
          > Otoz metodologia zbierania danych jest tak rozna, ze nie mozna jej w zadnym
          > wypadku porownac a tym bardziej snuc dywagacji w formie w jakiej robi to pan
          > Alex Wallenwein.
          > Otoz dane o zatrudnieniu pochodza z raportow jakie firmy wysylaja co jakis
          czas
          > ( w zaleznosci od sumy plac - miesiecznie lub kwartalnie) do stanowych
          > departanentow pracy i stanowych departamentow finansow. Natomiast dane o
          > wskazniku bezrobocia pochodza z comiesiecznych sondazy 60 tysiecy gospodarstw
          > domowych.
          > Mozna powiedziec NICE TRY, MR WALLENWEIN.
          >
          > PS. Artykul Wallenweina zamieszczony zostal w portalu, ktory doradza
          inwestorom
          > .
          > Po takich poradach zwykle mozna pojsc boso i bez portek.
          K: co do portek to zgoda. Ale te sonadze sa bez wartosci, bo a priori pomijaja
          te gospodarstwa, ktore nie zycza sobie byc "sondowane", a wiec sa, po prostu,
          niereprezentatywne...
        • Gość: GAJOWY MARUCHA FELUSIAK, A MOŻE PO TYM ZMIENISZ ZDANIE??? IP: *.internetdsl.tpnet.pl 14.06.04, 19:50
          Martin Barnes of the Bank Credit Analyst:(Central bankers and major
          institutions from all over the world read Martin, and well they should. Their
          June issue just came out, and let me quote from a special study they did on
          inflation entitled: "Inflation: The Fed Gets What It Wants.")

          "There was too much market complacency about the inflation outlook in late
          2003/early 2004, setting the scene for recent price data to catch investors off
          guard. The underlying inflation rate was never as weak last year as implied by
          the consumer price index and the recent acceleration partly reflects an
          unwinding of earlier distortions. The cyclical trend in inflation is up, albeit
          gradually. The Federal Reserve has been targeting higher inflation by running a
          hyperexpansionary monetary policy. While interest rates will be normalized over
          the next 12 to 18 months, policy gradualism will allow inflation to keep
          rising. The prices of goods and services purchased every day, week and month
          are rising at a steady pace. Deflation has been concentrated in durable goods,
          which are purchased infrequently. Moreover, trends in used car prices and
          owners' equivalent rent have obscured underlying inflation trends. The core
          inflation rate is headed to 3% or higher and the Fed will eventually have to
          flatten or invert the yield curve. Stay underweight bonds."
          (www.bcaresearch.com/)

          Martin brought up some very interesting points in this study. First, exactly
          how does the consumer price index (CPI) seem to understate an inflation that
          seems readily apparent to all?

          One reason is that "nearly all of the deflationary pressures during the past
          couple of years have been concentrated in durables goods, which account for
          only 11% of the overall CPI. The core annual inflation rate excluding durables
          never dropped much below 2% and is now up to 2. 6%."

          "There is even a twist within the inflation rate for durables. According to the
          official data, the price of used cars plunged at a 21% annualized pace between
          June and December of last year, exerting significant downward pressure on the
          durables inflation rate. The CPI for used cars has started to edge higher this
          year. A private-industry index of used car prices tells a different and perhaps
          more plausible story. The Manheim Used Vehicle Index
          (www.manheimvalueindex.com/) is based on a large sample of actual
          transactions and shows a marked upturn in the inflation rate for used vehicles
          in the past year. If the Manheim index is used instead of the CPI measure of
          used car prices, then the annual change in durable goods prices would have been
          minus 0.5% in April as opposed to the minus 3.5% shown in the published data
          (Chart III-2 on page 24). The 'truth' is probably somewhere in the middle."

          Another way in which inflation gets understated is that the rise in owner-
          occupied housing costs are measured by using an estimate of the rent homeowners
          would have to pay to live in their homes. This measure accounts for 32.9% of
          the core CPI. In April, core inflation for the last three months was 3.3%,
          which is quite the rise from 1.2% for last October. If you exclude the housing
          costs, core inflation for the last three months has risen 4.5%. It was 3.5%
          last October. Thus, using equivalent rent costs, which have not risen all that
          much, as a measure for all housing costs, has the very real potential to
          understate inflation.

          Martin has put his finger on the very topic I wrote about last week, and that
          is what I called the "end game" for the Fed. Just as they are committed to not
          allowing deflation, they are also not going to allow their recent legacy of
          controlling inflation to go by the wayside. I have maintained for some time
          that the Fed will allow inflation to increase more than most observers now
          believe. I also believe they will work to bring it back down."

          Wycinek z tekstu Johna Mauldin'a, analityka Millenium Wave Advisors, LLC. Jeśli
          za mało, to coś jeszcze poszukam.....
          • Gość: GAJOWY MARUCHA Re: FELUSIAK, JESZCZE COŚ - i dalej nie wierzysz?? IP: *.internetdsl.tpnet.pl 14.06.04, 20:52
            Jak to się dzieje, że BLS trzeci raz z rzedu w tym roku nie podaje na czas US
            PPI, przesuwając termin podania na bliżej nieokreśloną przyszłość, a potem
            podając cichaczem, by jak najmniej osób zauważyło?
            Raz? OK, może się zdarzyć. Dwa razy? Ktoś powinien za to wylecieć z hukiem. Ale
            trzy razy w ciągu pięciu miesięcy 2004? Co tu jest grane? Amatorzy w Biurze LS,
            nie umieją policzyć? Nie wierzę...Więc co?

            Albo to:
            W liczbie bezrobotnych najbardziej podatnym na manipulację jest wskaźnik
            zatrudnionych w nowych biznesach/zwalnianych z plajtujących firm - te dane
            przychodzą z opóźnieniem, więc BLS tworzy swoje szacunki, teraz prawdopodobnie
            podkręcane pod potrzeby Walczącego o Reelekcję - jakby co, zawsze można po
            fakcie powiedzieć - no cóż, nasz model nie jest doskonały i będziemy go
            poprawiać, nie?:
            As they note on their site (www.bls.gov/), "The most significant
            potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series
            modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and
            relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing
            reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are
            sudden changes in trend. BLS will continue researching alternative model-based
            techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to remain as the
            most problematic part of the estimation process."

            Last month, 195,000 jobs were in that category across the entire spectrum of
            the employment markets. They estimate over 700,000 new businesses have been
            created in the last four months alone, or more than double the amount created
            in the preceding 10 months. Were those 195,000 real, or were they the creation
            of a government agency desperate to show employment growth?

            Uchylam się od powiedzenia czy to prawda, czy fałsz, ale czas pokaże, jaka jest
            prawda, tak jak pokazał oszustwo administracji Busha z bronią masowego rażenia
            w Iraku. Mnie to jednak śmierdzi podkolorowaniem raportów, co jest w stylu
            obecnej administracji waszyngtońskiej.
            Lepiej dla Was w USA ( i dla mnie pośrednio też - to Wy ze swoim ślepym
            konsumpcyjnym zauroczeniem na kredyt jesteście ciągle motorem tego świata),
            żebym się mylił.
            • Gość: felusiak Ze w co niby nie wierze???? IP: *.nyc.rr.com 14.06.04, 22:04
              Panie gajowy nie wiem co pana tak przyparlo, zeby mi cos udowodnic.
              Prosze jeszcze raz doglebnie przeczytac moj post a nastepnie artykul Wallenweina.
              W swietle stosowanej metodologii obliczania obu wskaznikow pan Wallenwein
              jest niestety demagogiem. Co do reszty nie zabieram glosu. Nie pisze o jakosci
              wskaznikow, czy sa naciagane czy tez nie. To zupelnie inna para kaloszy. Ale nie
              znosze kiedy ktos chce mi wciskac, ze mozna porownac pomarancze z jablkami.

              Natomiast chcialby zatrzymac sie na chwile przy znamionach zewnetrznych.
              Knajpy pelne, sklepy pekaja w szwach, domy sprzedaja sie jak woda.
              Prosze mi powiedziec czy jest mozliwe aby konsument wydawal pieniadze kiedy
              jest zagrozony utrata pracy?


              PS. Rajchmanie 60 tysiecy gospodarstw domowych jest na pewno reprezentatywna
              probka a margines bledu jest nieznaczny.
              • kamila_z_nz Re: Ze w co niby nie wierze???? 15.06.04, 12:04
                Gość portalu: felusiak napisał(a):
                Panie gajowy nie wiem co pana tak przyparlo, zeby mi cos udowodnic.
                Prosze jeszcze raz doglebnie przeczytac moj post a nastepnie artykul Wallenwein
                a.
                W swietle stosowanej metodologii obliczania obu wskaznikow pan Wallenwein
                jest niestety demagogiem. Co do reszty nie zabieram glosu. Nie pisze o jakosci
                wskaznikow, czy sa naciagane czy tez nie. To zupelnie inna para kaloszy. Ale ni
                e znosze kiedy ktos chce mi wciskac, ze mozna porownac pomarancze z jablkami.

                www.larouchepub.com/other/2000/ref_quality_adj_2742.html
                fragment:

                The actual U.S. rate of inflation is higher by 3 times or more, than the
                Consumer Price Index (CPI) official rate of 3.4% posted by the Bureau of Labor
                Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The CPI is corrupted by the
                Quality Adjustment Method (formerly called the Quality Adjustment Factor),
                which covers up and hides inflation, and also distorts U.S. Gross Domestic
                Product and industrial production.

                Americans and others are kept in the dark about the U.S. inflation rate through
                the debasing influence of the Quality Adjustment Method (QAM). Perhaps one
                citizen in 100,000 has heard of the QAM, yet the Department of Labor,
                Department of Commerce, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors each
                has a staff devoted predominantly to the application of this method of
                statistical fraud.

                - Natomiast chcialby zatrzymac sie na chwile przy znamionach zewnetrznych.
                Knajpy pelne, sklepy pekaja w szwach, domy sprzedaja sie jak woda.
                Prosze mi powiedziec czy jest mozliwe aby konsument wydawal pieniadze kiedy
                jest zagrozony utrata pracy?
                K: USA zyje od czasow Reagana na kredyt. Bilans platniczy USA:
                1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004b)
                -90,460 -150,930 -375,000 -393,390 -440,000 -541,700

                PS. Rajchmanie 60 tysiecy gospodarstw domowych jest na pewno reprezentatywna
                probka a margines bledu jest nieznaczny.
                K: A jak sa one dobierane? Nie sa reprezentatywne, bo eliminuje ta metoda te
                gospodartwa, ktore nie chca wspolpracowac z wladzami...

                • kamila_z_nz QAM & Hedonic Index - Literatura 16.06.04, 09:22
                  Arguea, Nestor, and Cheng Hsiao (1993) "Econometric issues of estimating
                  hedonic price functions," Journal of Econometrics, 56, pp.243-267.
                  Armknecht, Paul (1984) "Quality Adjustment in the CPI and Methods to Improve
                  It," Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American
                  Statistical Association, pp. 57-63.
                  Armknecht, Paul, and Donald Weyback (1989) "Adjustments for Quality Change in
                  the U.S. Consumer Price Index, Journal of Official Statistics, 5, pp. 107-123.
                  Armknecht, Paul, Brent Moulton, and Kenneth Stewart (1995) "Improvements to the
                  Food at Home, Shelter, and Prescription Drug Indexes in the Consumer Price
                  Index,"BLS Working Paper No. 263.Court, Andrew (1939) "Hedonic Price Indexes
                  with Automobile Examples," in General Motors Corp. The Dynamics of Automobile
                  Demand, New York: General Motors Corp., pp. 99-117.
                  Edmonds, Radcliffe (1985) "Some Evidence on the Intertemporal Stability of
                  Hedonic Price Functions," Land Economics, 61, pp. 445-451.
                  Epple, Dennis (1987) "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Estimating Demand
                  and Supply Functions for Differentiated Products," Journal of Political
                  Economy, 95, November, pp. 59-80.
                  Fisher, F., and K. Shell (1972) The Economic Theory of Price Indices: Two
                  Essays on the Effects of Taste, Quality, and Technological Change. New York:
                  Academic Press.
                  Fixler, Dennis (1993) "The Consumer Price Index: underlying concepts and
                  caveats," Monthly Labor Review, 116, December, pp. 3-12.
                  Griliches, Zvi (1971) Price Indexes and Quality Change: Studies in New Methods
                  of Measurement. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
                  Kokoski, Mary (1993) "Quality adjustment of price indexes," Monthly Labor
                  Review, 116, December, pp. 34-46.
                  Kokoski, Mary, and Keith Waehrer (1998) "Hedonics and Quality Adjustment for
                  Price Indices for Consumer Electronics Products," draft presented to NBER
                  Summer Institute Conference on Price Indices, July.
                  Liegey, Paul (1993) "Adjusting Apparel Indexes in the CPI for Quality
                  Differences, in Foss, M., M. Manser, and A. Young (eds.) Price Measurements and
                  Their Uses. National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Income and Wealth,
                  57, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 209-226.
                  Liegey, Paul, and Nicole Shepler (1999) "Using Hedonic Methods to Quality
                  Adjust VCR Prices: Plucking a Piece of the US CPI’s ‘Low Hanging Fruit’?"
                  Monthly Labor Review, forthcoming.
                  Moulton, Brent, Timothy Lafleur, and Karin Moses (1999) "Research on Improved
                  Quality Adjustment in the CPI: The Case of Televisions," Proceedings of the
                  Fourth Meeting of the International Working Group on Price Indices, U.S. Dept.
                  of Labor, January, pp. 77-79.
                  Parker, P. (1992) "Price Elasticity Dynamics Over the Adoption Life Cycle,"
                  Journal of Marketing Research, August, pp. 358-367.
                  Rosen, Sherwin (1974) "Hedonic Prices and Hedonic Markets: Product
                  Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, April, pp.
                  34-55.
                  Silver, Mick (1998) "Bias in the Compilation of Consumer Price Indices when
                  Different Models of an Item Coexist," paper presented to the 1998 Ottawa
                  Conference at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C, April.
                  Stavins, J. (1997) "Estimating Demand Elasticities in a Differentiated Product
                  Industry: The Personal Computer Market," Journal of Economics and Business, 49,
                  pp. 347-367.
                  Triplett, Jack (1986) "The Economic Interpretation of Hedonic Methods," Survey
                  of Current Business, January, pp. 36-40.
                  Triplett, Jack (1988) "Hedonic functions and hedonic indexes," in The New
                  Palgraves Dictionary of Economics, pp. 630-634.
                  Triplett, Jack (1990) "Hedonic methods in statistical agency environments: an
                  intellectual biopsy," in Berndt, E.R., and J.E. Triplett (eds.) Fifty years of
                  economic measurement: the Jubilee Conference on Research in Income and Wealth,
                  NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
                  • kamila_z_nz QAM & Hedonic Index - Literatura (PELNA) 16.06.04, 09:33
                    Oto pelna wersja literatury w tym przedmiocie:
                    References for QAM and hedonic index:

                    Arguea, Nestor, and Cheng Hsiao (1993) "Econometric issues of estimating
                    hedonic price functions," Journal of Econometrics, 56, pp.243-267.

                    Armknecht, Paul (1984) "Quality Adjustment in the CPI and Methods to Improve
                    It," Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American
                    Statistical Association, pp. 57-63.

                    Armknecht, Paul, and Donald Weyback (1989) "Adjustments for Quality Change in
                    the U.S. Consumer Price Index, Journal of Official Statistics, 5, pp. 107-123.

                    Armknecht, Paul, Brent Moulton, and Kenneth Stewart (1995) "Improvements to the
                    Food at Home, Shelter, and Prescription Drug Indexes in the Consumer Price
                    Index, "BLS Working Paper No. 263.

                    Court, Andrew (1939) "Hedonic Price Indexes with Automobile Examples," in
                    General Motors Corp. The Dynamics of Automobile Demand, New York: General
                    Motors Corp., pp. 99-117.

                    Edmonds, Radcliffe (1985) "Some Evidence on the Intertemporal Stability of
                    Hedonic Price Functions," Land Economics, 61, pp. 445-451.

                    Epple, Dennis (1987) "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Estimating Demand
                    and Supply Functions for Differentiated Products," Journal of Political
                    Economy, 95, November, pp. 59-80.

                    Fisher, F., and K. Shell (1972) The Economic Theory of Price Indices: Two
                    Essays on the Effects of Taste, Quality, and Technological Change. New York:
                    Academic Press.

                    Fixler, Dennis (1993) "The Consumer Price Index: underlying concepts and
                    caveats," Monthly Labor Review, 116, December, pp. 3-12.

                    Griliches, Zvi (1971) Price Indexes and Quality Change: Studies in New Methods
                    of Measurement. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

                    Kokoski, Mary (1993) "Quality adjustment of price indexes," Monthly Labor
                    Review, 116, December, pp. 34-46.

                    Kokoski, Mary, and Keith Waehrer (1998) "Hedonics and Quality Adjustment for
                    Price Indices for Consumer Electronics Products," draft presented to NBER
                    Summer Institute Conference on Price Indices, July.

                    Liegey, Paul (1993) "Adjusting Apparel Indexes in the CPI for Quality
                    Differences, in Foss, M., M. Manser, and A. Young (eds.) Price Measurements and
                    Their Uses. National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Income and Wealth,
                    57, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 209-226.

                    Liegey, Paul, and Nicole Shepler (1999) "Using Hedonic Methods to Quality
                    Adjust VCR Prices: Plucking a Piece of the US CPI’s ‘Low Hanging Fruit’?"
                    Monthly Labor Review, forthcoming.

                    Moulton, Brent, Timothy Lafleur, and Karin Moses (1999) "Research on Improved
                    Quality Adjustment in the CPI: The Case of Televisions," Proceedings of the
                    Fourth Meeting of the International Working Group on Price Indices, U.S. Dept.
                    of Labor, January, pp. 77-79.

                    Parker, P. (1992) "Price Elasticity Dynamics Over the Adoption Life Cycle,"
                    Journal of Marketing Research, August, pp. 358-367.

                    Rosen, Sherwin (1974) "Hedonic Prices and Hedonic Markets: Product
                    Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, April, pp.
                    34-55.

                    Silver, Mick (1998) "Bias in the Compilation of Consumer Price Indices when
                    Different Models of an Item Coexist," paper presented to the 1998 Ottawa
                    Conference at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C, April.

                    Stavins, J. (1997) "Estimating Demand Elasticities in a Differentiated Product
                    Industry: The Personal Computer Market," Journal of Economics and Business, 49,
                    pp. 347-367.

                    Triplett, Jack (1986) "The Economic Interpretation of Hedonic Methods," Survey
                    of Current Business, January, pp. 36-40.

                    Triplett, Jack (1988) "Hedonic functions and hedonic indexes," in The New
                    Palgraves Dictionary of Economics, pp. 630-634.

                    Triplett, Jack (1990) "Hedonic methods in statistical agency environments: an
                    intellectual biopsy," in Berndt, E.R., and J.E. Triplett (eds.) Fifty years of
                    economic measurement: the Jubilee Conference on Research in Income and Wealth,
                    NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

                    • kamila_z_nz Re: QAM & Hedonic Index - Linki i iwiecej... 16.06.04, 09:55
                      www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiaudio.htm
                      Using Hedonic Methods for Quality Adjustment in the CPI: The Consumer Audio
                      Products Component
                      Mary Kokoski, Keith Waehrer, and Patricia Rozaklis
                      Division of Price and Index Number Research U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                      2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20212
                      This paper is a draft and a revised version will be published in the future.
                      Abstract
                      There has been a strong recommendation that the BLS explore the use of hedonic
                      regression methods for quality adjustment in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
                      Until recently data limitations have made this goal difficult to implement for
                      many categories of goods and services. This paper reports the preliminary
                      results of employing data purchased by BLS from an outside source to produce
                      hedonic regression-based quality-adjusted price indices for consumer audio
                      electronics products. The effects of hedonic-based quality adjustment are
                      examined. Hedonic indices are derived directly from the regression
                      coefficients, and compared to the adjusted CPI values. Issues of regression
                      specification, and practical problems for CPI quality adjustment are also
                      addressed.

                      www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiaudio.htm
                      U.S. Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics
                      Using Hedonic Methods for Quality Adjustment in the CPI:
                      The Consumer Audio Products Component
                      Mary Kokoski, Keith Waehrer, and Patricia Rozaklis
                      Division of Price and Index Number Research
                      U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20212


                      www.destatis.de/presse/englisch/pm2002/p2450051.htm
                      Federal Statistical Office Germany - Press release, 11 July 2002
                      Hedonic quality adjustment applied for the first time in price statistics
                      WIESBADEN – By introducing the so-called "hedonic method", the Federal
                      Statistical Office
                      has extended German price statistics by an additional method of adjustment for
                      quality
                      changes.

                      www.stat.fi/tk/hp/koeva.pdf
                      The 8th Meeting of the Ottawa Group in Helsinki 23rd - 25th August 2004
                      Eugen Koev:
                      Combining Classification and Hedonic Quality
                      Adjustment in Constructing a House Price Index
    • Gość: BRvUngern-Sternber Niestety to prawda... IP: *.bg.am.lodz.pl 14.06.04, 16:05
      Nie ma jasnego kryterium zaliczania do bezrobotnych.W efekcie gdy pracujesz
      chociaz na 1/8 etatu juz nie jestes bezrobotny.To samo gdy masz jakakolwiek
      rente chorobowa chociaz by wynosila 300 zl.Oczywiscie jest to na reke rzadom
      ktore nie chca miec wysokiego wskaznika bezrobotnych.Tymczasem dla celow
      naukowych niezbedna jest prawda.I tak w efekcie oficjalne bezrobocie w UE
      wynosi 9%.Tymczasem rzeczywiste dochodzi do 14%.Nalezalo by zaliczac do
      bezrobotnych WSZYSTKICH RENCISTOW ktorzy nie sa calkowicie niezdolni do
      pracy.TO SAMO wszystkich ktorzy NIE MAJA 1/2 etatu.O przedemerytach szkoda
      mowic...Ale mozemy tylko pomarzyc ANI RZADOM ANI TZW.fachowcom od ekonomii w
      stylu Balcerowicza i kolesi z RPP nie zalezy na prawdzie.Wola ukrywac rezultaty
      swoich szamanskich pomyslow.Przeciez gdyby ktos oglosil prawdziwy wskaznik
      bezrobocia w Polsce czyli ponad 30% to bylby lekki szok...Pojawily by sie
      pytania o kompetencje ludzi zajmujacych sie gospodarka w Polsce...A tak mozna
      wciskac pseudointeligentom bajeczki o genialnych ekonomistach i glupim
      spoleczenstwie ktore ich nie docenia,chociaz jak widac po wynikach wyborow
      coraz mniej skutecznie...
      • rajchman Re: Niestety to prawda... 14.06.04, 19:08
        Masz tu racje w 100%. Dla mnie pracujacy to taki osobnik zdolny do pracy, co
        nie potrzebuje zadnej pomocy od panstwa, aby sie utrzymac na pozimie minimum
        socjalnego. Stad jak ktos pracuje godzina na tydzien i zarabia nawet 100 zl za
        te godz. pracy, hest de facto bezrobotnym. Itp. Itd.
        Co tu daleko szukac:
        Szacunek realnej stopy bezrobocia w Australii w latach 1991-2001 (według
        Australian Bureau of Statistics)
        Stopa bezrobocia 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
        Oficjalnaa) 7.0 10.0 8.6 8.0 7.6 6.8
        Realnab) 19.0 22.5 20.0 19.0 17.0 16.0
        a) Tylko osoby uprawnione do zasiłku i aktualnie zarejestrowane jako bezrobotne
        b) Wszystkie osoby bez pracy i jej poszukujące

        • Gość: el matador Re: Niestety to prawda... IP: *.aster.pl / *.acn.pl 14.06.04, 21:34
          to samo dotyczy oceny potencjału gospodarczego Rosji ,w jednych żródłach dochód
          rosyjski na łba wynosi 4100,-USD,według CIA 2004 wypada wyższy niż na polskiego
          łba (niż w Polsce ponad 10.000 USD)i wynosi 10.600 USD(według CIA Białorus też
          jest wyżej rozwinięta niż zacofana gospodarczo Polska z uwagi na zlokalizowany
          na jej terenie olbrzymi przemysł obronny - kosmiczny, laserowy i radarowo-
          mikroelektroniczny w Mińsku i w Brześciu).Jest to o tyle niebezpieczne dla
          samych Amerykańców iż dotąd nie wiedzą z kim tak naprawdę w sensie potencjału
          gospodarczego mają do czynienia.Chciałbym by Rosjanie wodzili tych tępaków
          jeszcze przez najbliższe dwadzieścia lat aż do momentu całkowitego ponownego
          odzyskania przez ROSJĘ panowania nad światem bo jest jako
          posiadaczka "Hearthlandu"{Huntington} Ziemi niejako stworzona do zdecydowanego
          i bezwzględnego panowania nad całą kulą ziemską i wyskoki Wałęsy , Michnika,
          Gieremka czy Reagana,wariatki Thatcher czy też Zbigniewa Brzezińskiego nic na
          tym polu nie zdziałają
          (jego ostatnia książka "Le grand echiquier" to zestaw pobożnych życzeń jak
          łatwo i przyjemnie"udupić"Rosję, która jest za inteligentna by dać się wrobić w
          prymitywną amerykańską geopolitykę i jej antykomunistycznych apologetów w
          rodzaju Wałęsy z piekła rodem.
          Moja wersja z obserwacji nawet ostatnio budowanej gigantycznej elektrowni
          atomowej w Bałakowie koło Saratowa nad Wołgą(6000 MW) czy też systemu dział
          laserowych koło Semipałatyńska do zestrzeliwania satelitów i centrum dowodzenia
          pod górą Alantaj w Baszkirii - ten dochód PPP to mniej więcej 13.900 USD/łba i
          jest na pewno wyższy niż w Polsce(wystarczy spojrzeć na jakość taniego
          budownictwa socjalnego w Rosji i w Polsce - nowe tanie budownictwo w PL pod
          względem wykończenia,pracochłonności i infrastruktury osiedli i elewacji domów
          to autentyczne tym razem już kapitalistyczne polskie"slumsy").
          • kamila_z_nz Re: Niestety to prawda... 15.06.04, 11:57
            Oczywiscie to tez prawda. Moskwa przezywa obecnie boom gospodarczy, a na
            papierze PKB Rosji jest niewiele tylko wyzszy niz Polski. A kto wciaz wysyla
            ludzi w kosmos, i to bezpiecznie, w odrozniemiu od niebezpiecznej amerykanskiej
            technologii?
            I jeszcze jedno:
            www.larouchepub.com/other/2000/ref_quality_adj_2742.html
            fragment:

            The actual U.S. rate of inflation is higher by 3 times or more, than the
            Consumer Price Index (CPI) official rate of 3.4% posted by the Bureau of Labor
            Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The CPI is corrupted by the
            Quality Adjustment Method (formerly called the Quality Adjustment Factor),
            which covers up and hides inflation, and also distorts U.S. Gross Domestic
            Product and industrial production.

            Americans and others are kept in the dark about the U.S. inflation rate through
            the debasing influence of the Quality Adjustment Method (QAM). Perhaps one
            citizen in 100,000 has heard of the QAM, yet the Department of Labor,
            Department of Commerce, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors each
            has a staff devoted predominantly to the application of this method of
            statistical fraud.

            • Gość: el matador Re: Niestety to prawda... IP: *.aster.pl / *.acn.pl 16.06.04, 12:35
              Że w Rosji od czterech lat gospodarka rozwija sie w tempie 7- 8 % to widać na
              każdym kroku,przykłady budowa kolosalnego mostu wiszącego kablowo-podwieszonego
              przez Ob(Syberia),budowa kilkunastokilometrowego tunelu kolejowego na Syberii
              (na trasie BAM-u;Bajkalsko-Amurskiej Magistrali Kolejowej,ostatnio budowa
              jednego z największych mostów wiszących kablowo-podwieszonych(cable-stayed
              bridge)w Sankt Petersburgu przez rzekę Newę(pylony mają 175 metrów
              wysokości),budowa największego budynku mieszkalnego na świecie -TRUMPH PALAST
              Pałac Nuworiszowskiego Trymfu i przerażającego bogactwa Nowych Russkich -
              Moskwa - gigant wielkości Pałacu Kultury i Nauki w Warszawie w kształcie PKiN-
              u,zatwierdzona budowa nowego Business City z kilkuset wieżowcami w Moskwie z
              wieżowcem-dominantą 650 metrów wysokości ,najwyższym budynkiem w Eurazji
              itp.Rosja PUTINA kroczy w tempie wzrostu nie wiele odbiegającym od chińskiego
              ciągnąc za sobą całą WNP - na Ukrainie stopa wzrostu stale przekracza 7% w
              ostatnich czterech latach, to samo dzieje się w Kazachstanie i na
              Białorusi.Duży kontrast w stosunku do katastrofalnego kollapsu ekonomicznego na
              terenie
              biegnącej z zadyszką, słaniającej się pod ciężarem deficytu budżetowego i
              wykazującej się najbardziej katastrofalnym bezrobociem(realnie 30%) w Eurazji
              POLSZY..Dziękujemy Ci Panie Balcerowicz za nadanie rozwojowi naszego kraju
              swoiście pojmowanego rozmachu...który budzi zwykłą grozę u przeciętnego
              studenta ekonomii na SGPiS-sie czy SGH orientującego się bliżej w zawiłościach
              polskiej katastrofy gospodarczej.
              • rajchman Re: Niestety to prawda... 17.06.04, 15:33
                Gość portalu: el matador napisał(a):
                Że w Rosji od czterech lat gospodarka rozwija sie w tempie 7- 8 % to widać na
                każdym kroku,przykłady budowa kolosalnego mostu wiszącego kablowo-podwieszonego
                przez Ob(Syberia),budowa kilkunastokilometrowego tunelu kolejowego na Syberii
                (na trasie BAM-u;Bajkalsko-Amurskiej Magistrali Kolejowej,ostatnio budowa
                jednego z największych mostów wiszących kablowo-podwieszonych(cable-stayed
                bridge)w Sankt Petersburgu przez rzekę Newę(pylony mają 175 metrów
                wysokości),budowa największego budynku mieszkalnego na świecie -TRUMPH PALAST
                Pałac Nuworiszowskiego Trymfu i przerażającego bogactwa Nowych Russkich -
                Moskwa - gigant wielkości Pałacu Kultury i Nauki w Warszawie w kształcie PKiN-
                u,zatwierdzona budowa nowego Business City z kilkuset wieżowcami w Moskwie z
                wieżowcem-dominantą 650 metrów wysokości ,najwyższym budynkiem w Eurazji
                itp.Rosja PUTINA kroczy w tempie wzrostu nie wiele odbiegającym od chińskiego
                ciągnąc za sobą całą WNP - na Ukrainie stopa wzrostu stale przekracza 7% w
                ostatnich czterech latach, to samo dzieje się w Kazachstanie i na
                Białorusi.Duży kontrast w stosunku do katastrofalnego kollapsu ekonomicznego na
                terenie biegnącej z zadyszką, słaniającej się pod ciężarem deficytu budżetowego
                i wykazującej się najbardziej katastrofalnym bezrobociem(realnie 30%) w Eurazji
                POLSZY..Dziękujemy Ci Panie Balcerowicz za nadanie rozwojowi naszego kraju
                swoiście pojmowanego rozmachu...który budzi zwykłą grozę u przeciętnego
                studenta ekonomii na SGPiS-sie czy SGH orientującego się bliżej w zawiłościach
                polskiej katastrofy gospodarczej.
                K: Ano tak, tymbardziej, ze jak sie okazuje inflacja w USA jest ok. 3 razy
                wyzsa niz podawana oficjaknie, a ponad polowa PKB USA to tez fikcja
                statystyczna, czyli SF (Statistical Fiction)...
                Pozdr.
                Kagan
    • kamila_z_nz Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. 15.06.04, 13:39

      This article appears in the October 27, 2000 issue of Executive Intelligence
      Review.
      The Quality Adjustment Method:
      How Statistical Fakery Wipes Out Inflation
      by Richard Freeman
      The actual U.S. rate of inflation is higher by 3 times or more, than the
      Consumer Price Index (CPI) official rate of 3.4% posted by the Bureau of Labor
      Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. The CPI is corrupted by the Quality
      Adjustment Method (formerly called the Quality Adjustment Factor), which covers
      up and hides inflation, and also distorts U.S. Gross Domestic Product and
      industrial production.

      Americans and others are kept in the dark about the U.S. inflation rate through
      the debasing influence of the Quality Adjustment Method (QAM). Perhaps one
      citizen in 100,000 has heard of the QAM, yet the Department of Labor,
      Department of Commerce, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors each
      has a staff devoted predominantly to the application of this method of
      statistical fraud.

      The successful functioning of the U.S. economy is incompatible with the
      continued application of the QAM. Introduced in 1967 by the financier oligarchy
      during Arthur Burns's regime at the Federal Reserve, and spread by
      statisticians, it is set up to exclude anywhere from one-quarter to three-
      quarters of true inflation. It works from the continuous assumption that the
      quality of goods is improving: therefore, if the price of a product rose 10%,
      and the statisticians of the BLS claim two-thirds of the price increase was due
      to improved quality (the veracity of that statement will be explored below),
      the inflation of that product's price is reported as only 3.3%

      But this is only half the use of the QAM; it represents another major problem.
      As Lyndon LaRouche shows in this Feature, any accounting system that attempts
      to measure footprints of economic activity, rather than the transformative
      activity of human beings who make the footprints, has a fundamental problem.

      The pricing results of the Quality Adjustment Method, once fabricated, are
      turned over the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA
      makes the assumption that improved quality is the equivalent of increased
      output. So, if it is assumed that the quality of the product cited above
      improved by 6.7% per year, then the output is assumed to have increased by 6.7%
      (or more) per year. The BEA will apply this method to hundreds of products, and
      the increased output attributed to each of these products is added to Gross
      Domestic Product (GDP). That is a prime reason why real physical production is
      falling, but GDP is rising.

      Further, the QAM is turned over to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
      which publishes the Industrial Production Index. The Fed uses the QAM
      to "increase" industrial production in a manner similar to the Department of
      Commerce's hiking of GDP.

      Therefore, the QAM is central in the calculation of three of the most important
      and closely-watched gauges of the economy: inflation, GDP, and industrial
      production. The fraud of pervades each of these three.

      Exposing the QAM
      Lyndon LaRouche and EIR brought to light the charlatanry of the Quality
      Adjustment Method in 1983 (see R. Freeman, "`Quality Adjustment Factor': How
      the Fed Hides Inflation," EIR, Oct. 4, 1983). On Feb. 4, 1984, then-Democratic
      Party Presidential pre-candidate LaRouche brought the exposé of the QAM to the
      nation in a half-hour broadcast on ABC television. LaRouche said: "At the end
      of the first quarter of 1983, we were shocked to notice that both the Federal
      Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics were faking the figures for both
      industrial output and for unemployment by very wide margins. Later, we
      discovered also that the reported rate of inflation was being faked as well. It
      was being faked by as much as three times, that is, the rate of inflation
      during 1983 was about three times as much as the government has reported to
      you."

      While the QAM is a statistical fraud of considerable importance, for the City
      of London-Wall Street financier oligarchy, it takes on the character of a
      strategic weapon. Three examples stand out.

      First, it is being used to loot the American population. More than 100 million
      Americans are covered by cost-of-living adjustments in their wage contracts,
      and programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Unemployment Insurance, etc.,
      which are supposed to protect them against inflation. EIR has calculated that
      BLS lying about the rate of inflation, in which the QAM plays a great role, has
      this year stolen between $278 and $328 billion from these Americans.

      Second, the QAM is being applied to cover up the hideous consequences of the
      policy adopted by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan. In the third
      quarter 1998, acting on behalf of the financier oligarchy, Greenspan
      desperately revved up the printing presses, in order to hold up the bloated
      mass of speculative financial property titles, which were at the point of
      disintegration following the September 1998 Long Term Capital Management hedge-
      fund failure. That policy put the world on the path toward a hyperinflationary
      spiral, which will have the same devastating consequences as the hyperinflation
      which ravaged Weimar Germany from March through November 1923. Even though the
      prices of basic commodities, such as oil and polyvinylchloride, and consumer
      products, such as housing, are rising in the range of 15% to 180% per year, the
      BLS insists that inflation is only 3.4%.

      Third, the QAM is a vital element in the fake claim of a U.S. "noninflationary
      economic expansion." The QAM underreports inflation, and helps overstate GDP
      and industrial production. The lie of economic growth has a strategic
      implication: it is being employed to draw foreign funds into the United States,
      to cover over a projected $430 billion annual current account deficit in 2000.
      This foreign funds inflow helps the United States to hold up the value of the
      dollar and to import a large volume of goods. Were the myth about the U.S.
      economy shattered, it would precipitate a dollar crisis and the withdrawal of
      foreign funds, which would puncture the U.S. financial system.

      How the QAM Distorts Inflation
      The QAM is used to adjust the reporting of prices on both a producer level and
      on a retail/consumer level. The BLS reports two types of price indexes: the
      Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the change of price of a good at the
      producer level; and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the change
      of price of a market basket of goods at the retail level. Both divisions work
      on the same principle.

      Between 1980 and 1981, for example, the average transaction price of a new car
      rose from $7,574 to $8,910, an increase of $1,336. Based on that, it is
      possible to calculate the rate of car-price inflation for 1981, at 17.6%, a
      very substantial increase.

      But the wizards at the BLS got rid of most of that increase. In a BLS
      document, "Quality Changes for Passenger Cars, 1969-99," the BLS initially
      attributed 99% of the price increase to "improved quality." Then, after it made
      further adjustments, the BLS finally attributed 66% of the 1981 increase in the
      price of a car to "improved quality," and 34% to actual price increase. The BLS
      reported to the BEA, that only $454 of the $1,336 price increase in 1981 was
      actually an increase in price. Thus, the BLS threw away two-thirds, or $882, of
      the price increase you paid in 1981. It reported an auto-price inflation rate
      of just 6.0%.

      What is considered improved quality? There are various things that the BLS, and
      other agencies consider quality improvements, including: a new catalytic
      converter to meet an "air-quality-emissions" code set by the Congress; the
      change of a material from a metal to plastic; the change of a
      • kamila_z_nz Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. 15.06.04, 13:40
        How the QAM Distorts Inflation
        The QAM is used to adjust the reporting of prices on both a producer level and
        on a retail/consumer level. The BLS reports two types of price indexes: the
        Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the change of price of a good at the
        producer level; and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the change
        of price of a market basket of goods at the retail level. Both divisions work
        on the same principle.

        Between 1980 and 1981, for example, the average transaction price of a new car
        rose from $7,574 to $8,910, an increase of $1,336. Based on that, it is
        possible to calculate the rate of car-price inflation for 1981, at 17.6%, a
        very substantial increase.

        But the wizards at the BLS got rid of most of that increase. In a BLS
        document, "Quality Changes for Passenger Cars, 1969-99," the BLS initially
        attributed 99% of the price increase to "improved quality." Then, after it made
        further adjustments, the BLS finally attributed 66% of the 1981 increase in the
        price of a car to "improved quality," and 34% to actual price increase. The BLS
        reported to the BEA, that only $454 of the $1,336 price increase in 1981 was
        actually an increase in price. Thus, the BLS threw away two-thirds, or $882, of
        the price increase you paid in 1981. It reported an auto-price inflation rate
        of just 6.0%.

        What is considered improved quality? There are various things that the BLS, and
        other agencies consider quality improvements, including: a new catalytic
        converter to meet an "air-quality-emissions" code set by the Congress; the
        change of a material from a metal to plastic; the change of a truck to a sport
        utility vehicle; the "upgrading" of a "convenience package," which might
        include power door locks, a security alarm, power steering and power seats, or
        the introduction of CD players. In effect, the manufacturer is allowed to
        deduct all his costs in these areas (which costs he has passed on to
        consumers), from the BLS reporting of his price.

        Many of what are counted as improvements, are not improvements at all. Consider
        the overall construction of a car. Since 1967, there has been a general
        reduction in the weight of a car by more than one-third of a ton. In part, this
        has been done in order to increase mileage efficiency. Yet, despite the lies of
        the Naderites, highway safety tests show that lighter cars suffer far worse
        damage in collisions with cars which weigh 3,000 pounds or more, or with
        inanimate objects, such as trees or walls.

        The recasting of light trucks into sports utility vehicles is no improvement,
        as the fundamental design flaw in the Ford Explorer SUV shows. That SUV has a
        tendency to roll over under certain speed and load conditions, and, when paired
        with Firestone tires, has resulted in many unnecessary deaths. The "upgrading"
        of a convenience package, so that a car has a better security alarm or other
        accessories, does not constitute a fundamental improvement.

        The Reality of Product Improvement
        But let us grant, for a moment, that all the above-alleged improvements were
        improvements. For centuries in America, there have been improvements in the
        quality of products, and crucially, in the production and engineering processes
        which generated those improved products. This is not an exception, but the
        normal feature of a developing society. The basis of all economics starts with
        the sovereign individual mind creating new validatable scientific discoveries
        of fundamental principle. These discoveries are then transmitted into the
        economy through newly incorporated scientific advances in machine-tool design,
        or upgraded infrastructure. In America, during periods when revolutionary
        advance in machine-tool design improved products, this was considered normal.
        The revolutionary process would reduce the actual price paid for products.

        Then in 1967, the QAM was manufactured by the oligarchy at the time of a
        paradigm shift imposed on the United States toward a post-industrial society.
        The fact that this shift would build a speculative bubble, which would feed
        inflation, had to be concealed somehow.

        In the development of the automobile, since the 1890s, many fundamental
        improvements were made, from the electric starter motor, replacing the hand
        crank, around 1911-12; to the system of transmission to replace the earlier
        direct linkage of the engine to the driving wheels; to the introduction of the
        independent front suspension as universal during the 1930s; to the myriad
        progressions in engine design and function. There was a revolution in the
        automobile, in particular, up through 1950.

        But since 1967, when the QAM was instituted, the improvements have not been of
        the dimension of the accumulated fundamental changes of the period from 1890
        through 1950. Why should there be a QAM after 1967, when most of the
        fundamental changes occurred before 1967? There is no need for a QAM. In fact,
        for nearly two centuries of the history of the United States until 1967, there
        was no QAM for anything, and for a sound reason: Improved quality should be
        treated as an inherent feature of a healthy economy.

        In fact, since 1967, several fundamental features of the car have deteriorated,
        not improved. Cars which weigh one-third to one-half ton less than they did 30
        years ago, are more likely to sustain more serious damage to the car and
        passenger, when they collide with a stationary object. In many instances, the
        cost of car repair, because of the design problem of the cars, has risen
        sharply.

        Now, let us return to what has happened in the reporting of the increase of car
        prices, considered over the period 1967-99. Figure 1 shows that, according to
        the BEA, the average transaction price of a new car was $3,216 in 1967 (the BEA
        bases its data on a survey of 125 car models every year). By 1999, the
        transaction price of a new car had jumped to $20,658. This is the price that a
        consumer pays for a car--an increase of 6.42 times.

        In the same figure, using the same starting point on the graph, look at the BLS
        Consumer Price Index for the cost of a new car. Based on an index, in which the
        value of the years 1982-84 is set equal to 100, the index level was at 49.3 in
        1967. By 1999, the index had trudged up to 139.6--an increase of only 2.83
        times.

        Compare the two curves. They're both supposed to be measuring the same thing,
        but the curve of the transaction price of a new car represents reality: what
        makes the path of the CPI curve so much slower, is the QAM. The CPI index for
        the cost of a new car only accounted for 44% of the actual price increase over
        the past 30-plus years. It attributed 56% of the actual price increase to
        alleged "improved quality," and excluded it from counting. Between 1967 and
        1999, the actual increase of the price of a new car was 2.27 times greater than
        what the CPI fraudulently reported.

        Figure 2 shows the ability of the BLS to cut down inflation. The first bar
        graph shows that the transaction cost of a new car was $3,216 in 1967. It then
        shows what the car would cost in 1999 if it had been "adjusted" by the CPI
        index: $9,101. No such vehicle was to be found in 1999, even by believers in
        the statistics of the BLS. It is only in its published reports that the
        BLS "made disappear" the $11,557 in the actual cost of a car.

        A BLS analyst reported on Oct. 10, "The BLS has quality adjustments for
        probably thousands of products." Every home appliance has a quality adjustment,
        as do furniture and clothing, the home itself, telecommunications equipment and
        computers (the quality adjustment for the computer is called the hedonic index,
        as will be reported below).

        Additional Distortions of Inflation
        But the BLS has still other weapons to "reduce" inflation. In the 1990s, the
        Senate Finance Committee established the Advisory
        • kamila_z_nz Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. 15.06.04, 13:42
          Additional Distortions of Inflation
          But the BLS has still other weapons to "reduce" inflation. In the 1990s, the
          Senate Finance Committee established the Advisory Commission to Study the
          Consumer Price Index, which was staffed by people whose aim was to reduce the
          inflation rate further, through various shams and ruses. The Commission issued
          its final report on Dec. 4, 1996, calling for a series of changes which would
          lower the CPI by 1.1%. In January 1999, the BLS instituted one of these
          changes, called the "consumer substitution" change. This assumes that if prices
          rise, the consumer will strive to make a constant level of expenditures for a
          certain category of goods. So, if the price of one item goes up, the consumer
          will substitute another item, which is cheaper. This may not be at all what
          happens in reality; but, the BLS made an assumption, which pre-programs in that
          the consumer would not be paying more for certain categories of goods. A
          spokesman for the BLS told EIR on Sept. 11, 2000, that this assumption alone
          will permanently take 0.2% per year off the CPI rate.

          By use of such gimmicks, and above all the QAM, the BLS has whittled down
          consumer inflation, from August 1999 through August 2000, to an average of
          3.4%. But, as EIR has reported, the rate of inflation for certain commodities,
          such as housing, energy, etc., has risen at rates of 15-180% per year. EIR
          estimates that the true rate of inflation is 10%, three times the official rate.

          The oligarchs, and their hired statisticians, are aware of what lying about
          inflation does. The Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index, in
          its December 1996 final report, stated, "Corrections . . . in the CPI . . .
          would also contribute importantly to reductions in federal budget deficits and
          the national debt." In particular, "reductions" would cause "lower outlays,"
          which would be lower through "cuts in indexed federal spending programs." That
          means that many federal programs, such as Social Security, Medicare,
          Unemployment Insurance, Food Stamps, and so forth, are adjusted by a cost-of-
          living adjustment, which is pegged to the CPI. By artificially cutting the CPI,
          the cost-of-living adjustment is lowered, and the expenditures for these
          programs are lowered. EIR documented in a Sept. 28 study, that lying about
          inflation in this way will gouge between $278 and $328 billion from the U.S.
          population in 2000 (see "Lies About Inflation Are Being Used to Loot the
          Population").

          The QAM Manipulates GDP Growth
          But once the QAM is used to depress the reported level of inflation, it is then
          used to pump up the level of GDP, and in parallel, the Industrial Production
          Index.

          Let us consider the question of computers and accessories, including software.
          It is the QAM modification of computers and accessories that had an enormous
          false effect on alleged U.S. GDP growth.

          On Oct. 11, an analyst at the National Income and Wealth Division of the Bureau
          of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce, explained how the QAM index
          for computers is used to increase GDP. It is the same principle by which the
          QAM for other products is used to increase GDP. The pith of the conversation
          has been presented in Table 1. Assume, stated the analyst, that in the United
          States, in 1998, total U.S. computer sales were $100 billion, in current
          (nominal) dollars, and in 1999, total U.S. computer sales were $100 billion in
          current (nominal) dollars. This is line 1 in Table 1. Assume further, he said,
          that computers as a whole were "20% more powerful" in 1999, than they were in
          1998. Then, one assumes that computers cost 20% less in 1999 than they did in
          1998. This is standard QAM procedure, and one deducts 20% from the Producer
          Price Index for computers in 1999. So, if the producer price index for
          computers was equal to 100 in 1998, it would be set equal to 80 in 1999. This
          example assumes that the actual price of a computer has not fallen; it is the
          quality adjustment that has lowered the price.

          However, the analyst now posited a second step, now taken by the Commerce
          Department: to increase GDP growth. As a result of the QAM, the price of the
          computers in 1999 is only 80% of what it was in 1998. Therefore, he explained,
          the output in 1999, of $100 billion, is worth more. He proposed dividing $100
          billion by 0.8 (80%), and this yields a new adjusted output of computers in
          1999 of $125 billion (that is, $100 billion divided by 0.8). The rationale is
          that if prices are only 80% of what they appear to be in 1999, then the $100
          billion in current dollars output is only 80% of what the adjusted output would
          be, $125 billion. Thus, by use of the QAM, computer output in 1999 has been
          increased from $100 billion to $125 billion; this represents an increase of
          25%. So, the analyst pointed out, prices fell by 20%, but output increased by
          25%, through the application of the QAM.

          With computers, a process called the hedonic index is applied. In its
          application to prices, it has the same conceptual overview as the QAM, but
          there are a few differences. To explain the hedonic index briefly: A computer
          is thought of as a bundle of characteristics, such as speed, expandable memory,
          CD drive, etc. In the case where a computer exists in 1999, but a comparable
          computer did not exist in 1996, then the BEA constructs an "imputed" computer
          model for 1996, which has the same characteristics, features, and performance
          as the computer that exists in 1999. Each characteristic has a coefficient that
          links it to the computer's overall price. An "imputed" price for the 1996
          computer is constructed. It is then compared to the 1999 computer. A prime
          purpose is to compare the prices of the two computers, so that a quality
          adjustment can be made, showing how superior the 1999 computer is to the 1996
          computer.

          Some years, computers' prices fall; some years, they rise. But using the
          hedonic method, as a form of the QAM, the Commerce Department always makes the
          price of a computer fall 3 to 4 times what it actually fell, if it did fall
          (or, it makes it fall, if the actual price rose). What the BEA is most
          interested in, is using a big quality-adjusted fall in price, to create a big
          quality-adjusted increase in output.

          Now, we will look at what effect the hedonic adjustment/ quality adjustment
          upon computers, had on GDP. We will look at this in conjunction with the fact
          that the United States, alone among major countries, counts computer software
          as a form of capital spending/investment. That fact, together with hedonic
          adjustment, made up a huge amount of the supposed increase of real GDP in the
          United States, between the second quarter of 1998 and the second quarter of
          2000.

          The predominant way of computing GDP is by the method of the "expenditure
          system." This adds together four elements: 1) Gross Private Domestic
          Investment, which includes business capital investment; 2) Personal Consumption
          Expenditures, which represents personal or consumer expenditures for
          consumer/personal goods or services; 3) Government Expenditures; and 4) Net
          Exports. Items 1 and 2 make up the bulk of GDP, and here we are concerned with
          item 1.

          The business expenditure for computers, which is classified as capital
          investment, is counted as part of Gross Private Domestic Investment. If it
          rises, GDP rises. Table 2 shows the Commerce Department's report of the level
          of business capital investment for computers. It is expressed two ways: in
          current dollars, and in real (chained) 1996 inflation-adjusted dollars. In the
          case of the real (chained) 1996 inflation-adjusted dollars, this has already
          been subjected to the hedonic index quality adjustment. Business capital
          investment for computers, when stated in current actual dollars, rose, between
          the second quart
          • kamila_z_nz Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. 15.06.04, 13:47
            The business expenditure for computers, which is classified as capital
            investment, is counted as part of Gross Private Domestic Investment. If it
            rises, GDP rises. Table 2 shows the Commerce Department's report of the level
            of business capital investment for computers. It is expressed two ways: in
            current dollars, and in real (chained) 1996 inflation-adjusted dollars. In the
            case of the real (chained) 1996 inflation-adjusted dollars, this has already
            been subjected to the hedonic index quality adjustment. Business capital
            investment for computers, when stated in current actual dollars, rose, between
            the second quarter of 1998 and the second quarter of 2000, from $85.5 billion
            to $114.2 billion, an increase of $28.7 billion. However, when stated in 1996
            (chained) inflation-adjusted dollars, the same business capital investment for
            computers rose, between the second quarter of 1998 and the second quarter of
            2000, from $144.0 billion to $298.5 billion, an increase of $154.5 billion.

            Amazingly, one can see that business capital investment for computers rose by
            $125.8 billion more ($154.5 billion minus $28.7 billion), when stated in 1996
            (chained) inflation-adjusted dollars than when stated in current dollars. But
            this is the same capital investment! The reason for this is the application of
            the QAM/hedonic index, which took a $28.7 billion increase in actual current
            dollars, and turned it into a $154.5 billion increase in "real" inflation-
            adjusted dollars. The QAM/hedonic index, all by itself, caused the increase in
            the level of business expenditure in capital investment for computers, to grow
            five-fold. The QAM/hedonic index manufactured a counterfeit $125.8 billion
            increase in alleged business capital spending for computers.

            Now, add in the second element, that the United States is alone among major
            nations in counting business expenditures for computer software as if it were a
            capital investment. Between the second quarter 1998 and the second quarter
            2000, when stated in 1996 (chained) inflation-adjusted dollars, the business
            expenditure for so-called capital investment in computer software rose from
            $146.7 billion to $227.5 billion, an increase of $80.8 billion. This increase
            of $80.8 billion increased the capital investment portion of the Gross Domestic
            Private Investment part of GDP. This in turn increased GDP. But in all other
            major nations, this investment in computer software would be counted as a
            business expense, and not as a capital investment, and therefore it would not
            increase GDP. Therefore, the increase in capital investment for computer
            software of $80.8 billion is a fake, unique to the United States.

            For the period between the second quarter 1998 and the second quarter 2000,
            Table 3 lists the counterfeit $125.8 billion increase in business expenditures
            for capital investment in computers which is due solely to the QAM/hedonic
            index; the $80.8 billion increase in capital investment for computer software,
            which is fake and unique to the United States; and the increase of total GDP of
            the United States in real 1996 inflation-adjusted dollars, of $843.2 billion.
            The combination of these first two items totals $206.6 billion. Thus, between
            the second quarter 1998 and the second quarter 2000, these two bits of fakery
            made up 24.5% of all the alleged real GDP growth of the United States.

            But that is just the beginning. In addition to computers, the Quality
            Adjustment Method is applied to thousands of other products, which artificially
            increases the alleged output of GDP. This is true for cars, houses, household
            appliances, furniture, and so forth. A significant part of alleged GDP growth
            is due to the application of the QAM.

            But GDP has deep methodological flaws, and does not measure the performance of
            the real economy. A good part of GDP growth is the speculative financial
            cancer, and non-productive overhead services, which is embellished by much
            statistical foolery. The QAM is central here.

            Yet, the story does not end there. The QAM is turned over to the Federal
            Reserve Board of Governors, which publishes the Industrial Production Index.
            According to a discussion with Carol Corrado, chief of the Industrial Output
            Section at the Federal Reserve, on Oct. 10, the Federal Reserve follows the
            basic method of the Commerce Department, and uses the QAM to increase the
            reported industrial production of different sectors of the economy.

            Thus, the QAM fraud is central in three of the most important parts of the
            economy--inflation, GDP, and industrial production. It invalidates much that is
            published about any of these areas. It is a piece of statistical fakery that is
            destroying the nation.




    • kamila_z_nz Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. 17.06.04, 10:42
      Felusiak: Kagan wynalazl to co napisala kamila a on skopiowala to z Lauruche'a.
      K: Kagan to kamila, a kamila znalazla to poprzez Google...;)

      Wszystkie wypociny pochodza stamtad. LaRouche niczego nie wynalazl, no moze
      poza tym, ze twierdzia ze SDI to nie byl pomysl Reagana ale jego wlasny. W tym
      miejscu musze przytoczyc mojego znajomego, duzo starszego ode mnie, który
      twierdzil, ze to on pierwszy odkryl wlasciwosci lecznicze propolisu.
      K: To nie jest na temat!

      Nie ma zadnych mnoznikow do wyliczania PKB. NIE MA. To co piszecie na ten temat
      to niesamowite bzdury. Zenujacy poziom rozumienia zagadnien gospodarczych.
      K: Sa! Zobacz sam na www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiaudio.htm
      U.S. Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics, Using Hedonic Methods
      for Quality Adjustment in the CPI:
      The Consumer Audio Products Component, Mary Kokoski, Keith Waehrer, and
      Patricia Rozaklis
      Division of Price and Index Number Research
      U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20212

      Faktem jest, ze W obliczaniu CPI/PPI stosuje sie metode orekcji jakosciowej.
      CPI=Consumers Price Index, I=Producers Price Index, Qaity Adjustment
      Method=Metoda Korekty Jakosciowej
      K: Otoz to! QAM i Hedonic method to sa wlasnie te mnozniki, tyle, ze ubrane w
      pesudonaukowa szate...

      Otoz w tym roku 20% wzrostu ceny samochodu przypisuje sie zmianom jakosciowym.
      A jakie to sa te zmiany zapytalby Kagan albo JOrl albo kamila. Ano takie, ze
      model 2003 nie byl wyposazony w standartowe side air bags a teraz jest. W
      zwiazku z tym oba modele 2003 i 2004 nie sa w pelni porownywalne i nie można
      100% wzrostu ceny przypisac inflacji. Albo tez poprzedni model nie miał
      standartowych hamulcow antilock a teraz ma. Albo tez nowy model wyposazony jest
      w GPS system nawigacji.
      K: A jak przeliczysz te zmiany jakosciowe na dolary? Widzisz, jakosci nie da
      się skwantyfikowac, bowiem to co dla jednego jest poprawa jakosci, dla innego
      jest jej obnizka. Np. ograniczenie szybkosci samochodu poprzez odcinanie
      doplywu paliwa po przekroczeniu 200 km/h jest dla mnie obnizka jakosci, a wiec
      powinno jeszcze bardziej zwiekszac infkacje (gorszy samochod za wiecej
      pieniedzy)!

      To wszystko bez wiekszego wysilku mozna znalezc na stronie Bureau of Labor
      Statistics. Wszedzie dokladnie wyjasniono metodologie i z niczego nie robiono
      tajemnicy. Na przyklad Ford Taurus ktory kosztowal w 2003 22375 dolarow
      kosztuje dzis 22867 dolarow. Cena wzrosla o $ 492 czyli o okolo 2.2%. Ale model
      2004 nie jest identyczny z modelem 2003. W nowym modelu montowane sa fabrycznie
      odtwarzacze CD i przednie fotele maja lumbar support. W zwiazku z tym aby
      obliczyc wzrost ceny spowodowany inflacja nalezy ustalic wartosc wprowadzonych
      zmian. Zalozmy, ze ich wartosc wynosi $ 97.
      K: I tu cie mam! Na jakiej podstawie uznales, ze te pozorne zmiany jakosciwe
      sa „warte” 97 dolcow? Toz to jest dopiero 100% szarlataneria! Dla mnie sa one
      bowiem bezwartosciowe, a nawet gorzej, bowiem podwyzszajac wage samochodu
      obnizaja jego osiagi i zwiekszaja zuzycie paliwa, tak wiec oceniam je na –100
      dolarow (minus 100 USD), co powinno dac jeszcze wieksza inflacje (gorszy
      samochod za wieksze pieniadze)!

      Czyli wzrost ceny spowodowany inflacja rowny jest 492-97=395. Z tego wynika, ze
      inflacja nie wynosi 2.2% lecz 1.75%.
      K: Dla mnie zas odwrotnie: wzrost ceny jest 492+100, czyli 592, a wiec realna
      inflacja jest ponad 3%!

      Dziala to tez w druga strone. Na przyklad kawa Folgers kosztowala $5,25 za 16
      uncji. Nadal sprzedawana jest w tym samym opakowaniu za te same $5.25. Ale
      hola opakowaniu jest teraz tylko 14 uncji. O dwie uncje mniej za te same
      pieniadze. prostego rachunku wynika ze cena kawy wzrosla 12.5%. Jz nie bede
      wiecej gral w ciuciubabke. To juz moj ostatni post w tym watku. ycze dobrej
      zabawy podczas dalszego poszukiwania nieistniejacych mnoznikow. decydowanie
      polecam Don Kichote Cervantesa. Wszak walka z wiatrakami ciagle ma woich
      amatorow.
      K: Skompromitowales się zupelnie! Arbitralnie przeliczasz pozorne zmiany
      jakosci na dolary i zapominasz, ze na razie tylko USA stosuje taka
      szarlatanerie sztucznie zmniejszajac sobie inflacje i sztucznie zwiekszajac
      swój, realnie spadajacy, PKB... ;))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
    • kamila_z_nz Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. 17.06.04, 10:43
      Kilka linkow:
      www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiaudio.htm
      U.S. Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics
      Using Hedonic Methods for Quality Adjustment in the CPI:
      The Consumer Audio Products Component
      Mary Kokoski, Keith Waehrer, and Patricia Rozaklis
      Division of Price and Index Number Research
      U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20212


      www.destatis.de/presse/englisch/pm2002/p2450051.htm
      Federal Statistical Office Germany - Press release, 11 July 2002
      Hedonic quality adjustment applied for the first time in price statistics
      WIESBADEN – By introducing the so-called "hedonic method", the Federal
      Statistical Office
      has extended German price statistics by an additional method of adjustment for
      quality
      changes.

      www.stat.fi/tk/hp/koeva.pdf
      The 8th Meeting of the Ottawa Group in Helsinki 23rd - 25th August 2004
      Eugen Koev:
      Combining Classification and Hedonic Quality
      Adjustment in Constructing a House Price Index


    • Gość: Kagan Podatki w USA IP: 195.116.92.* 23.06.04, 13:03
      1) Federalny (najwiekszy), zalezy od deklarowanych dochodow.
      2) Stanowy (zalezy tez od stanu jak i dochodow)
      3) Lokalny (tzw. rates od posiadanej ziemii, domow etc.)
      4) Zdrowotny, czyli skladka na ubezpieczenie chorobowe, bez ktorego stakesz
      sie krolikiem doswiadczalnym dla studentow i doktorantow w stanowym szpitalu
      5) Edukcyjny, czyli koszty nauki w szkolach prywatnych (panstwowe sa w 90%
      parodia szkol).
      6) Last, bit not least, wszechobecny SALES TAX czyli rodzaj VAT, od ktorego
      nie uciekniesz, chocbys nawet byl w 100% nielegalnie... :(
      W USA da sie dobrze zyc tylko jak sie oszukuje urzad podatkowy oraz jest sie
      zdrowym i nie ma dzieci w wieku szkolnym oraz nie robi zakupow poza czarnym
      rynkiem... :(
      Pozdr.
      Kagan
      =====
    • Gość: Kagan Podatki w USA IP: 195.116.92.* 23.06.04, 13:03
      1) Federalny (najwiekszy), zalezy od deklarowanych dochodow.
      2) Stanowy (zalezy tez od stanu jak i dochodow)
      3) Lokalny (tzw. rates od posiadanej ziemii, domow etc.)
      4) Zdrowotny, czyli skladka na ubezpieczenie chorobowe, bez ktorego stakesz
      sie krolikiem doswiadczalnym dla studentow i doktorantow w stanowym szpitalu
      5) Edukcyjny, czyli koszty nauki w szkolach prywatnych (panstwowe sa w 90%
      parodia szkol).
      6) Last, bit not least, wszechobecny SALES TAX czyli rodzaj VAT, od ktorego
      nie uciekniesz, chocbys nawet byl w 100% nielegalnie... :(
      W USA da sie dobrze zyc tylko jak sie oszukuje urzad podatkowy oraz jest sie
      zdrowym i nie ma dzieci w wieku szkolnym oraz nie robi zakupow poza czarnym
      rynkiem... :(
      Pozdr.
      Kagan
      =====
    • Gość: Kagan Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. IP: *.internetdsl.tpnet.pl 27.06.04, 12:10
      USA musi obecnie falszowac statystyki CPI i GDP, bowiem USA z exportera
      kapitalu staly sie jego importerem, i to najwiekszym ma swiecie (Chiny to inna
      sprawa, bo ChRL inwestuje kapital w realna gospodarke, a nie w gospodarkę
      wirtualna i pasozytnicza konsumpcje jak USA): USA od czasow Reagana zyja na
      kredyt z zaciagania coraz to nowych dlugow, wiec musza przekonywac swych
      wierzycieli, ze sa wciaz wyplacalni, a wiec ze maja niska inflacje, niskie
      bezrobocie oraz wysoki produkt narodowy i dobra tego produktu dynamike. To jest
      wspolny interes rzadu i sektora prywatnego (mowa o Big Business), wiec "reka
      reke myje", i malo kto jest zainteresowany w powiedzeniu prawdy, a jak sie juz
      nawet ktos odwazy, to jest od razu okrzyczany zdrajca interesow USA... :(
      Pozdr. :)
      Kagan

        • Gość: Kagan Re: Statystyki miedzynarodowe to czysta fantazja. IP: *.wev.vic.gov.au 07.07.04, 07:24
          C.d.:
          1) USA jest na przedostatnim miejscu wsrod 13 najbogatszych panstw swiata
          jesli chodzi o wskazniki zdrowotnosci.
          2) 43 miliony Amerykanow nie ma zadnego ubezpieczenia na wypadek choroby.
          3) USA ma najkosztowniejszy system opieki zdrowotnej na swiecie.
          4) Miliony Amerykanow umiera na choroby, ktore w innych rozwinietych
          panstwach sa skutecznie leczone i to po rozsadnym koszcie.
          5) Amerykanscy lekarze sa zainteresowani tylko zwiekszaniem swych dochodow.
          Oto do czego prowadzi prywatyzacja sluzby zdrowia... :(
          Kagan z Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
          Zrodlo: Bob Herbert MILLIONS DIE IN US BECAUSE OF POOR ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE.
          Oryginalnie w "New York Times", przedruk w "The Strait Times" (Singapur) z
          dnia 29 czerwca 2004.

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