Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego?

11.06.03, 09:43

Witajcie Koleżanki i Koledzy. Rzadko ostatnio zaglądam na forum ale znalazłem
ciekawy tekst, przyczynek do kiedyś gorących dyskusji o wpływie siły
pieniadza na stan gospodarki, temat prawie zupełnie źle rozumiany w Polsce.
Posłuchajcie zatem jak myslą o tej sprawie praktyczni Amerykanie.
Słowo komentarza - Wharton jest bardzo dobrym ośrodkiem.

Pozdrawiam Was serdecznie!

The Dollar’s Weakness Is a Strength




U.S. manufacturers like it, but German and French exporters do not. Operators
of hotels and tourist attractions across America are glad to see it happen,
but tourism-dependent businesses overseas are not thrilled at all. The Bush
administration appears to like it (although there is some confusion about
this), but more than a few foreign governments are definitely nervous about
it.



The decline of the dollar is getting everybody’s attention these days.
Members of Wharton’s finance department and an economist at a U.S. financial
institution say the dollar’s decline against some of the world’s major
currencies will have far-reaching economic and political effects for many
months to come, particularly in America and Europe. Indeed, the chain of
events that the dollar’s movement has set in motion may have a lot to do with
the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in 2004. These experts predict
that the dollar will probably continue to fall, but any additional weakness
should pose no problems for the U.S. economy unless the decline were to
happen in a rapid, chaotic fashion.



Already the dollar is occupying the attention of the leaders of the world’s
developed nations. Currency movements were a topic of discussion at the
recent Group of Eight meeting in France, where European and Japanese
officials expressed concern that a weak dollar could thwart global economic
recovery. Finance ministers, economists, politicians and business executives
also were eagerly anticipating a June 5 meeting of the European Central Bank
(ECB), which is expected to address anemic economic growth by cutting an
important interest rate. What’s more, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan
has indicated that the U.S. central bank may be poised to cut rates when the
Fed meets on June 24 and 25.



A weaker dollar is a double-edged sword with winners and losers. Some of the
biggest beneficiaries of the dollar’s decline are U.S. companies, the U.S.
stock market and U.S. economic growth. American manufacturers who sell their
goods in countries whose currencies have appreciated against the dollar are
happy because those goods are now cheaper to buy overseas.



Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel favors a weaker dollar “because it
means cheaper export prices and higher real incomes for Americans. When
you’re in a struggling economy with a lot of unused capacity like ours, I’ll
take imports that are a little more expensive as the trade-off for getting
U.S. companies more competitive in world markets.” Siegel says a weaker
dollar also helps U.S. stocks – and the millions of people who invest in
them – because higher sales abroad can lead to higher corporate earnings.



Stuart G. Hoffman, senior vice president and chief economist at PNC Financial
Services Group in Pittsburgh, agrees that a weaker dollar can help U.S.
manufacturers become more competitive in pricing, which can lead to higher
sales and gains in market share. In today’s climate, companies that do a lot
of business overseas benefit when revenues booked by their subsidiaries in
foreign currencies are transferred back to the United States in dollars. This
is especially true for U.S. firms that do business in Europe. The U.S. dollar
has lost about 17% of its value against the euro since the end of 2002. The
Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen and other currencies have also appreciated
against the dollar, but not as much as the euro.



Other potential winners include U.S. hotels, resorts and other businesses
that cater to tourists. Since vacations in Europe are now most costly, many
Americans may decide to head for domestic beaches and mountains this summer
instead of Paris and Rome, Hoffman says.



A weaker dollar also helps to allay concerns among economists about the
possibility of deflation, a broad, persistent decline in prices. By making
imports more expensive, the thinking goes, a weaker dollar can stave off
deflation. “While a weaker currency over time is not in and of itself
inflationary, it does mean the prices of some imports go up, so it works
against deflation in your own country,” Hoffman explains. Fed chairman
Greenspan has said it is important that the United States do what it can to
avoid deflation, although he does not think that deflation is imminent.



Potential losers from a weaker dollar include European and Japanese
exporters, whose goods are now more expensive to buy in the United States,
and tourism-dependent businesses. “For any firm competing with Japan and
Europe, [the dollar’s weakness] has to be very good news,” says finance
professor Richard Marston.



Stagnation in Japan
Although most attention has been focused on the euro, Japanese officials have
been concerned about the yen’s rise against the dollar. On May 29, Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi said that the yen was too strong given the state
of Japan’s economy, which saw GDP growth near zero for the first quarter of
2003.



“Japan is worried that if the yen goes to too high a level, it will cause big
problems,” says finance professor Franklin Allen. In a telephone interview
from Japan, where he was teaching a course, Allen says Japanese officials
are “very worried about the export sector” and about the overall economy.



“It’s a grim situation here,” Allen notes. “I was at dinner with students
last night and they were saying their incomes were starting to get cut quite
dramatically. The mortgage rate in Japan is about 2% on a 40-year mortgage
and property prices are reasonable. But the students were worried about
taking out mortgages because five years from now they aren’t sure they will
have the incomes to make the payments.”



Ultimately, Japan will do all it can to get the yen to the level it wants by
buying as many dollars as necessary, according to Allen.



As far as European companies are concerned, Marston says a stronger euro
means they have little choice but to cut profit margins. “This is a
significant jolt for them to have such a large appreciation of the euro. For
companies in direct competition with the U.S., this is definitely very bad
news. Eventually, they’ll have to raise prices in the U.S. and lose market
share.”


Recession in Europe?
Marston says a strong euro holds the potential to tip some countries in the
euro zone into recession. “They’re at the brink [of recession] anyway,” he
says. Figures released on May 15 showed modest growth of 0.8% in the euro
zone in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period. Germany’s
economy actually contracted 0.2% in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter
of 2002, its economy contracted 0.3%.



According to Marston, euro-zone countries do not have much room to maneuver
when it comes to fiscal policy. Those countries cannot spend their way out of
economic malaise because they are required by statute to keep their budget
deficits below 3% of their gross domestic product. “They don’t have
traditional ways to respond to slowdowns. It puts them in straightjackets,”
he notes.



Hoffman is not as pessimistic about the future of Europe’
    • emisiek Re: Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego 11.06.03, 09:45
      Hoffman is not as pessimistic about the future of Europe’s economies, but says
      a strong euro certainly does not help Europe, particularly economies like
      France’s or Germany’s that rely on exports for a large portion of their GDP
      growth. “I don’t know if they could fall into recession but Germany does a lot
      of exporting. If Germany is exporting to France, Italy or Spain, the fall in
      the dollar has no effect. But to the extent that Germany exports to the United
      States or China or Japan, [a strong euro] does make their companies less
      competitive. This is also true for France. Whether it would push them into
      recession – I wouldn’t go that far.”

      Germany itself does not seem overly worried. Ernst Welteke, president of the
      Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, and a member of the ECB council, has said
      that he is not concerned about the euro’s strength, according to a May 28 story
      in The Wall Street Journal. Welteke said German exports would remain
      competitive if the euro was worth about $1.15. On June 2, the dollar traded at
      $1.17 to the euro. The dollar had hit an all-time low of $1.19 against the euro
      the previous week. (It is interesting to note that the euro today is worth what
      it was when it was introduced in January 1999 – $1.17. At its weakest point
      against the dollar, the euro was worth about 82 cents.)

      Whether or not recession is a real possibility in Germany or elsewhere in the
      euro zone, the topic of gloomy economic prospects was expected to be high on
      the agenda of the ECB at its June 5 meeting. The ECB, which sets monetary
      policy for the 12 nations that use the euro, was widely expected to cut its key
      interest rate from 2.5% to either 2.25% or 2% – a move that would be aimed at
      putting a charge into Europe’s struggling economies. The ECB has cut interest
      rates twice in recent months – by one half a percentage point in December and a
      quarter point in March.

      A Tough Task
      Marston says the ECB has a difficult job trying to set a common monetary policy
      for countries whose economic situations – high unemployment may be the biggest
      problem in one place, high inflation in another – can be so different. He
      notes, too, that the ECB is unlike the Federal Reserve in its basic purpose.
      The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain price stability and full employment,
      while ECB’s charter gives it just one chief task – preventing inflation. But
      Marston suggests the appreciation of the euro will compel the ECB to
      become “more proactive” in using monetary policy to grease the skids for
      economic growth.

      In the long run, he adds, “the ECB has to establish a very strong bias against
      inflation. That’s what has made [former Fed chairman Paul] Volcker and
      Greenspan so successful. That’s ultimately the central bank’s job. On the other
      hand, when the world economy is becoming very, very sluggish, holding those
      rates at a given level at some point becomes counterproductive.”

      America’s Dollar Policy
      There has been some confusion in recent weeks about what U.S. policy is toward
      the dollar. Treasury Secretary John Snow has made comments indicating that the
      United States welcomed a weaker dollar. But at the G-8 meeting President Bush
      said “our policy is a strong dollar.”

      The apparent contradiction between Snow’s comments and Bush’s has caused the
      currency markets to “question” U.S. policy, according to Hoffman. Yet he plays
      down the controversy, noting that there is no significant disagreement between
      Bush and Snow, that they are not trying to “artificially” raise or lower the
      dollar via their comments, and that currency traders should not assume there is
      a “secret code” they need to decipher in order to determine the government’s
      true dollar policy.

      “The treasury secretary and even the president have said, ‘Let the markets
      determine where the dollar should be. Our policy is we want a strong dollar but
      let the markets determine it,’” says Hoffman. “Of late, the markets have been
      knocking the dollar down, although in an orderly … fashion. It’s not a crisis.”

      Siegel agrees that too much has been made of Snow’s comments. He says
      statements by government officials have much less of an impact on the dollar’s
      movements than do market forces. “I think there’s a huge overemphasis on the
      administration’s position on the dollar, in particular Treasury Secretary
      Snow’s comments,” says Siegel. “Really, the forces on the dollar are very, very
      broad and have more to do with world capital flows and investment. The stance
      of the administration and Snow has little power to change the dollar’s basic
      direction. Greenspan has far more power in influencing the direction of the
      dollar than anyone else in the administration.”

      Although the dollar’s decline against the euro has been the most dramatic in
      recent months, the greenback has slowly been losing ground to the euro for the
      last couple of years. That weakening stands in stark contrast to the 1990s when
      the dollar was made the king of currencies by foreign investors flocking to the
      United States to reap the benefits of high interest rates and a booming equity
      market.

      “The appreciation of the dollar in the 1990s had a lot to do with the foreign
      appetite for American securities,” Marston explains. “During the bull market
      Europeans poured money into the U.S. stock market, including European companies
      taking over U.S. companies. It wasn’t interest rates that attracted investment
      as much as equities and direct investment in American companies. It took a long
      time for that to turn around. But what turned the dollar down was a very
      significant slowdown in foreign investments in the United States.”

      Today, according to Siegel, “low interest rates in the U.S. are one reason
      we’re seeing a decline in the dollar. Short-term money is seeking the highest
      returns around the world. With interest rates low here, Europe looks better.
      You also have to consider the long-term money in the stock market. There’s a
      nice rally in stocks here. But I don’t think the U.S. is viewed quite as
      favorably as it was in the late 1990s, so long-term money is being liquidated a
      bit here.”

      The Wharton faculty members point out that the U.S., which is saddled with a
      large current-account deficit, needs to attract hundreds of billions in
      investments from abroad each year. “If you have a current-account deficit of 5%
      of GDP, you have to have it matched by 5% of capital inflows,” says
      Marston. “That’s an enormous amount to attract every year. It was easy to do
      that during the soaring stock market. But when the market collapsed, Europeans
      really cut back on their investments in this country.”

      Adds Allen: “There is an issue, going forward, about whether we can keep
      borrowing that 5% from overseas each year to finance the current-account
      deficit. That may not be sustainable. If foreigners hold 45% of U.S. bonds and
      30% of U.S. equities and they decide to get out, that could be a big problem.
      We could have a meltdown in asset prices.”

      Further Decline in Dollar Seen
      Hoffman and the Wharton scholars say no one can predict how much farther the
      dollar will fall, but it seems that there is room for further depreciation.

      The dollar will continue to decline over the next six to nine months, Hoffman
      predicts, but the decline may not be as concentrated against the euro as it has
      been. He says an “orderly” depreciation of the dollar
      • emisiek Re: Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego 11.06.03, 09:47
        Further Decline in Dollar Seen
        Hoffman and the Wharton scholars say no one can predict how much farther the
        dollar will fall, but it seems that there is room for further depreciation.

        The dollar will continue to decline over the next six to nine months, Hoffman
        predicts, but the decline may not be as concentrated against the euro as it has
        been. He says an “orderly” depreciation of the dollar should be no cause for
        alarm, but warns that a dollar crash could seriously damage the U.S. economy if
        the Federal Reserve felt compelled to boost interest rates to slow the dollar’s
        decline. Higher rates would stifle any nascent recovery.

        “I don’t think there’s a magic number above which you’re okay and below which
        you’re in the danger zone,” Hoffman says. “But speed is relevant. If the dollar
        falls 10% in a month, that’s bad. That could show real lack of confidence in
        the economy. I don’t think that will happen.” Hoffman predicts the dollar could
        fall another 6% against the British pound, the Mexican peso and the Canadian
        dollar over the next six months. If so, “I don’t think that presents a problem
        for the U.S. economy in any way, shape or form.”

        The 2004 election
        If a weaker dollar and an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in late June
        jumpstart America’s economy, would that bode well for Bush’s reelection chances
        in November 2004?

        “There’s no guarantee. It depends on the timing,” says Marston. “In the 1991-92
        period, the economy didn’t seem to be turning around and that cost the first
        President Bush dearly. We’re less than a year and a half from the election.
        That’s not a lot of time for the economy to turn around and for people to
        recognize that the economy has turned around. Remember that employment lags GDP
        growth. Companies make long-term investments before they hire people back. It’s
        going to be a jobless recovery for a while. We don’t have the same kind of
        recessions we used to have. We used to lay off blue-collar workers and bring
        them back when the economy recovered. Today we fire white-collar workers and
        find ways to substitute for them, and we don’t have to bring back as many when
        recovery happens. And that’s not going to help President Bush.”



        Calosc dostepna pod adresem knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/whatshot.cfm
      • emisiek Re: Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego 11.06.03, 09:48
        I jeszcze jeden artykul z Business Week

        www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2003/nf20030516_1127_db035.htm
        MAY 16, 2003 NEWS ANALYSIS


        Good News! The Dollar Is Down


        It has been dropping for over a year, especially against the euro
        • emisiek Re: Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego 11.06.03, 09:49
          Good News! The Dollar Is Down
          [Page 2 of 2]


          MULTINATIONAL BOOST. Of course, some sectors stand to do better than others.
          The biggest winners from a typical dollar decline are suppliers of consumer
          staples, energy, materials, and technology, while laggards tend to be financial
          services, utilities, and telecom, Merrill says.

          Content Continues Below Ad





          Better results are already showing for U.S. multinationals such as McDonald's
          Corp. (MCD ), which reported on May 13 that its sales in Europe rose 19% in
          April. Most of that was the result of foreign-currency translation, not because
          the Oak Brook (Ill.) giant sold more burgers and fries in Europe.

          With higher profits have come an improved stock market and increased investor
          wealth
          • Gość: pawel-l Re: Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego IP: 1.0.12.* 11.06.03, 11:33
            e-Misiek napisał:
            > Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego

            Tak samo jak cieszyła się Rosja po dewaluacji rubla i Argentyna po dewaluacji
            peso .

            Przez lata wszyscy manipulowali stopami% i efektem była nierównowaga finansowa.
            Kurs wymiany musi wrócić do równowagi i to jest prawda.
            Natomiast nikt nie pisze że po tyłku dostaje przeciętny pracujący i
            oszczędzający. W Rosji i Argentynie odbyło się to gwałtownie, w Usa w miarę
            łagodnie. Proces potrwa parę lat, pojawi się inflacja (albo spadek płac albo
            bezrobocie) i zobaczymy wtedy czy nadal będą się cieszyć.
            • darr.darek tak wygląda i tak kończy PROTEKCJONIZM EKSPORTOWY 11.06.03, 15:22
              Gość portalu: pawel-l napisał(a):
              > e-Misiek napisał:
              > > Dolar slabnie a Ameryka sie cieszy - dlaczego
              >Tak samo jak cieszyła się Rosja po dewaluacji rubla i Argentyna po dewaluacji
              >peso .
              >Przez lata wszyscy manipulowali stopami% i efektem była nierównowaga finansowa.
              >Kurs wymiany musi wrócić do równowagi i to jest prawda.
              >Natomiast nikt nie pisze że po tyłku dostaje przeciętny pracujący i
              >oszczędzający. W Rosji i Argentynie odbyło się to gwałtownie, w Usa w miarę
              >łagodnie. Proces potrwa parę lat, pojawi się inflacja (albo spadek płac albo
              >bezrobocie) i zobaczymy wtedy czy nadal będą się cieszyć.

              Akurat z tego tytułu to nie ma powodu przewidywać powiększania się bezrobocia w
              USA. Bądź co bądź niemal wszyscy plotą o związku zbyt wysokiego kursu własnej
              waluty z bezrobociem.
              A co było w USA przez ostatnie, conajmniej, kilka lat ? Był (i jest) zawyżony
              kurs dolara poprzez wykupywanie przez wiele krajów świata, dolarów za własną
              walutę i tworzenia lokat w tychże dolarach. I z tym wiązał się ujemny deficyt
              handlowy . I co ? Gospodarka USA padała ? Miała problemy eksportowe ? Było tam
              zbyt duże bezrobocie ? NIE ! Wbrew prostym twierdzeniom matołków, nie było tam
              tych zjawisk, gospodarka dostoswała się NATURALNIE do parametrów jakie były i
              po małym załamaniu się polityki sztucznego podtrzymywania kursu dolara przez
              wiele krajów świata ... ma jeszcze większe szanse na bycie konkurencyjną.

              Tak wygląda właśnie "prognozowany" protekcjonizm eksportowy : podbija się kurs
              cudzej waluty przez parę lat, trzyma się w tej walucie duże lokaty, a bardziej
              liberalny kraj "poddawany zabiegom" niewiele sobie z tego robi, jego gospodarka
              dostosowywuje się do (niby pogorzszonych) warunków konkurencyjnych, jeszcze
              wszyscy mają pretensje, że "oni żyją na nasz koszt", a na koniec ...
              podtrzymywany kurs i tak spada, nierównowaga bilansu odwraca się (bo musi się
              kiedyś odwrócić i USA będą miały nadwyżkę w handlu światowym) i protekcjoniści
              eksportowi płączą, że kryzys na ich kraje nadciąga ... "z winy tego tam" .

              • feezyk Trudnosci biednego kredytobiorcy 11.06.03, 16:53
                darr.darek napisał:

                > Akurat z tego tytułu to nie ma powodu przewidywać
                powiększania
                > się bezrobocia w USA. Bądź co bądź niemal wszyscy plotą
                o
                > związku zbyt wysokiego kursu własnej waluty z
                bezrobociem.

                Jak rozumiem, Ty tez to pleciesz?


                > A co było w USA przez ostatnie, conajmniej, kilka lat ?
                Był (i jest)
                > zawyżony kurs dolara poprzez wykupywanie przez wiele
                krajów
                > świata, dolarów za własną walutę i tworzenia lokat w
                tychże
                > dolarach. I z tym wiązał się ujemny deficyt handlowy.

                Gwoli scislosci: USD umocnil sie w roku 2000.
                W roku 2001 byla regularna recesja i wzrost
                bezrobocia. Po tej recesji bylo odbicie, ale jego
                sila okazala sie za slaba, wiec trzeba teraz
                obnizyc kurs USD... przynajmniej do wyborow.

                > I co ? Gospodarka USA padała ?

                A polska gosp. za Gierka padala?


                > Miała problemy eksportowe ?

                Tak.

                > Było tam zbyt duże bezrobocie ? NIE !

                dopiero bedzie, jak przyjdzie placic
                za szalenstwa

                > Wbrew prostym twierdzeniom matołków, nie było tam
                > tych zjawisk, gospodarka dostoswała się NATURALNIE
                > do parametrów jakie były

                Znaczy deszczu kredytow i towarow?
                Tez bym sie dostosowal

                > i po małym załamaniu się
                > polityki sztucznego podtrzymywania kursu dolara przez
                > wiele krajów świata ...

                Ach, to wine za kurs dolara ponosza Inne Kraje Swiata?


                > ma jeszcze większe szanse na bycie konkurencyjną.
                >

                Hi, hi, to beda musieli zwiekszyc o jakies 20-30%
                produkcje przemyslowa (+ uslugi) i to komus
                wepchnac... Ciekawe, o ile jeszcze musi spac USD,
                aby do tego doszlo?

                Przypominam: produkcja przem. Chin rosnie w
                tempie kilkunastu procent rocznie...


                > Tak wygląda właśnie "prognozowany" protekcjonizm
                > eksportowy : podbija się kurs
                > cudzej waluty przez parę lat, trzyma się w tej walucie
                duże
                > lokaty, a bardziej liberalny kraj "poddawany zabiegom"
                > niewiele sobie z tego robi, jego gospodarka
                > dostosowywuje się do (niby pogorzszonych)
                > warunków konkurencyjnych, jeszcze


                A zadluzenie sobie rosnie, tik, tak, tik, tak,
                juz 50 000 USD wiecej

                > wszyscy mają pretensje, że "oni żyją na nasz koszt", a
                na koniec ...
                > podtrzymywany kurs i tak spada, nierównowaga bilansu
                odwraca się (bo musi się
                > kiedyś odwrócić i USA będą miały nadwyżkę w handlu
                światowym) i protekcjoniści
                > eksportowi płączą, że kryzys na ich kraje nadciąga ...
                "z winy tego tam" .
                >

                Tylko, czy "oni" potrafia jeszcze splacic te swoje
                zobowiazania? O, to jest pytanie.

                Pozdrawiam
                F.
                • Gość: MACIEJ Re: Trudnosci biednego kredytobiorcy IP: *.ny325.east.verizon.net 11.06.03, 20:36
                  Na Wegrzech inflacja jest bardzo niska i graja OSTRO na spadek forinta.
    • komentator O czym nie mowia yankesi? 11.06.03, 23:32

      Ostry spadek kursu waluty normalnie powoduje oczywiscie wzrost cen towarow
      importowanych co natychmiast odbija sie na kieszeni kazdego. Na przyklad
      cena benzyny na cepeenie zalezy od kursu zlotowki do dolara. Ale to nie
      obowiazuje dolara, dolar to taka magiczna waluta ze kurs spada i nic sie
      nie zmienia.

      Dlaczego? Bo

      1. Ceny surowcow sa placone w dolarach wiec jesli kurs dolara spada to
      cena sie nie zmienia

      2. Kraje azjatyckie albo zwiazaly kurs walut na sztywno albo podtrzymuja
      kurs dolara. Bank Japonii regularnie wydaje mase pieniedzy na interwencje
      byle utrzymac kurs.

      To pozwala USA utrzymywac ogromny deficyt handlowy i budzetowy i nie
      przejmowac sie spadkiem kursu. Innymi slowy swiat podtrzymuje USA. A
      yankesi sie ciesza z sily swojej ekonomii.

      Pytanie czy to moze trwac wiecznie? Oczywiscie nie. Ale kiedy moze sie zmienic?
      Gdy swiat nagromadzi tyle baksow ze zobaczy brak pokrycia na nie. Wtedy kurs
      dolara bedzie musial spasc do takiego poziomu ze swiat odejdzie od rozliczania
      cen surowcow a Azjaci przestana podtrzymywac kurs swoich walut. To bedzie
      prawdziwy Doomsday. Chcac go uniknac, a szczegolnie by ceny ropy nie przestaly
      byc rozliczane w dolarach USA zrobily zabezpieczenie militarne. Nastepne
      pytanie jest czy to moze pomoc na dluzsza mete? Chyba nie, wiec cos bedzie sie
      dzialo.




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