emisiek
11.06.03, 09:43
Witajcie Koleżanki i Koledzy. Rzadko ostatnio zaglądam na forum ale znalazłem
ciekawy tekst, przyczynek do kiedyś gorących dyskusji o wpływie siły
pieniadza na stan gospodarki, temat prawie zupełnie źle rozumiany w Polsce.
Posłuchajcie zatem jak myslą o tej sprawie praktyczni Amerykanie.
Słowo komentarza - Wharton jest bardzo dobrym ośrodkiem.
Pozdrawiam Was serdecznie!
The Dollar’s Weakness Is a Strength
U.S. manufacturers like it, but German and French exporters do not. Operators
of hotels and tourist attractions across America are glad to see it happen,
but tourism-dependent businesses overseas are not thrilled at all. The Bush
administration appears to like it (although there is some confusion about
this), but more than a few foreign governments are definitely nervous about
it.
The decline of the dollar is getting everybody’s attention these days.
Members of Wharton’s finance department and an economist at a U.S. financial
institution say the dollar’s decline against some of the world’s major
currencies will have far-reaching economic and political effects for many
months to come, particularly in America and Europe. Indeed, the chain of
events that the dollar’s movement has set in motion may have a lot to do with
the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in 2004. These experts predict
that the dollar will probably continue to fall, but any additional weakness
should pose no problems for the U.S. economy unless the decline were to
happen in a rapid, chaotic fashion.
Already the dollar is occupying the attention of the leaders of the world’s
developed nations. Currency movements were a topic of discussion at the
recent Group of Eight meeting in France, where European and Japanese
officials expressed concern that a weak dollar could thwart global economic
recovery. Finance ministers, economists, politicians and business executives
also were eagerly anticipating a June 5 meeting of the European Central Bank
(ECB), which is expected to address anemic economic growth by cutting an
important interest rate. What’s more, Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan
has indicated that the U.S. central bank may be poised to cut rates when the
Fed meets on June 24 and 25.
A weaker dollar is a double-edged sword with winners and losers. Some of the
biggest beneficiaries of the dollar’s decline are U.S. companies, the U.S.
stock market and U.S. economic growth. American manufacturers who sell their
goods in countries whose currencies have appreciated against the dollar are
happy because those goods are now cheaper to buy overseas.
Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel favors a weaker dollar “because it
means cheaper export prices and higher real incomes for Americans. When
you’re in a struggling economy with a lot of unused capacity like ours, I’ll
take imports that are a little more expensive as the trade-off for getting
U.S. companies more competitive in world markets.” Siegel says a weaker
dollar also helps U.S. stocks – and the millions of people who invest in
them – because higher sales abroad can lead to higher corporate earnings.
Stuart G. Hoffman, senior vice president and chief economist at PNC Financial
Services Group in Pittsburgh, agrees that a weaker dollar can help U.S.
manufacturers become more competitive in pricing, which can lead to higher
sales and gains in market share. In today’s climate, companies that do a lot
of business overseas benefit when revenues booked by their subsidiaries in
foreign currencies are transferred back to the United States in dollars. This
is especially true for U.S. firms that do business in Europe. The U.S. dollar
has lost about 17% of its value against the euro since the end of 2002. The
Canadian dollar, the Japanese yen and other currencies have also appreciated
against the dollar, but not as much as the euro.
Other potential winners include U.S. hotels, resorts and other businesses
that cater to tourists. Since vacations in Europe are now most costly, many
Americans may decide to head for domestic beaches and mountains this summer
instead of Paris and Rome, Hoffman says.
A weaker dollar also helps to allay concerns among economists about the
possibility of deflation, a broad, persistent decline in prices. By making
imports more expensive, the thinking goes, a weaker dollar can stave off
deflation. “While a weaker currency over time is not in and of itself
inflationary, it does mean the prices of some imports go up, so it works
against deflation in your own country,” Hoffman explains. Fed chairman
Greenspan has said it is important that the United States do what it can to
avoid deflation, although he does not think that deflation is imminent.
Potential losers from a weaker dollar include European and Japanese
exporters, whose goods are now more expensive to buy in the United States,
and tourism-dependent businesses. “For any firm competing with Japan and
Europe, [the dollar’s weakness] has to be very good news,” says finance
professor Richard Marston.
Stagnation in Japan
Although most attention has been focused on the euro, Japanese officials have
been concerned about the yen’s rise against the dollar. On May 29, Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi said that the yen was too strong given the state
of Japan’s economy, which saw GDP growth near zero for the first quarter of
2003.
“Japan is worried that if the yen goes to too high a level, it will cause big
problems,” says finance professor Franklin Allen. In a telephone interview
from Japan, where he was teaching a course, Allen says Japanese officials
are “very worried about the export sector” and about the overall economy.
“It’s a grim situation here,” Allen notes. “I was at dinner with students
last night and they were saying their incomes were starting to get cut quite
dramatically. The mortgage rate in Japan is about 2% on a 40-year mortgage
and property prices are reasonable. But the students were worried about
taking out mortgages because five years from now they aren’t sure they will
have the incomes to make the payments.”
Ultimately, Japan will do all it can to get the yen to the level it wants by
buying as many dollars as necessary, according to Allen.
As far as European companies are concerned, Marston says a stronger euro
means they have little choice but to cut profit margins. “This is a
significant jolt for them to have such a large appreciation of the euro. For
companies in direct competition with the U.S., this is definitely very bad
news. Eventually, they’ll have to raise prices in the U.S. and lose market
share.”
Recession in Europe?
Marston says a strong euro holds the potential to tip some countries in the
euro zone into recession. “They’re at the brink [of recession] anyway,” he
says. Figures released on May 15 showed modest growth of 0.8% in the euro
zone in the first quarter compared with the year-earlier period. Germany’s
economy actually contracted 0.2% in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter
of 2002, its economy contracted 0.3%.
According to Marston, euro-zone countries do not have much room to maneuver
when it comes to fiscal policy. Those countries cannot spend their way out of
economic malaise because they are required by statute to keep their budget
deficits below 3% of their gross domestic product. “They don’t have
traditional ways to respond to slowdowns. It puts them in straightjackets,”
he notes.
Hoffman is not as pessimistic about the future of Europe’