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22.11.04, 20:51
Uri Avnery
20.11.
Who’s Next?
George W. Bush is a product of the Wild West myth. He sees himself as the
fast-drawing sheriff who kills the bad guys and maintains order in town.
But in fact he is much more like another stock figure of the Westerns: the
top-hatted vendor of the patent medicine which heals everything: tooth-ache
and belly-ache, cholera and impotence, gunshot wounds and heart attacks.
Bush’s patent medicine is called “democracy”. Democracy will heal all
the diseases of the Middle East and the entire world. If only the Muslim
nations would buy his little flask, all problems would be solved, and
foremost among them the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And since Israel is
already an exemplary democracy, led by that great democrat, Ariel Sharon, all
that is needed now is to impose democracy on the Palestinians. This means
free elections for president and parliament.
A person with limited intellectual capacity needs simple solutions. A
one-dimensional solution that does not demand delving into the complexities
of other societies and civilizations. What’s good for his little Texan town
must be good for Baghdad and Gaza, too.
Since winning reelection, his self-confidence has shot sky high. He has
kicked out the hapless Colin Powell and put a certified yeswoman in charge of
the State Department. From now on, nobody will question his decisions
anymore. Not even if he appoints his horse Chief Justice.
So who is worried? Of all people, Ariel Sharon, his great friend,
teacher and guide.
As fate would have it, Bush achieved his great victory one day before
the sudden, mysterious breakdown of Yasser Arafat’s health. Sharon’s alibi
was buried in Ramallah.
Successive Israeli governments have presented Arafat as a monster and
used his monstrosity as a pretext for undermining any attempt to impose peace
upon them. Peace means withdrawing to the pre-1967 border, more or less, and
dismantling the settlements. Peace means giving up East Jerusalem, more than
half of the “eternal capital of Israel”. God forbid!
The demonization of Arafat helped avoid this. After all, one cannot make
peace with a monster. Even Bush understood that. Therefore he helped Sharon
prevent elections for the Palestinian Authority, in which Arafat was certain
to be reelected by a landslide.
But now Arafat is not there, and Bush is. Sharon is very troubled. And
rightly so.
For four years, the mantra in Washington has been: Fighting
International Terrorism. That suited Sharon fine, since he was riding on
the “fight terrorism” horse anyhow.
For the next four years, the new mantra in Washington may well be:
Democracy for the Middle East. That will suit Abu-Mazen, who is riding the
democracy horse.
Abu-Mazen has been chosen as Chairman of the PLO. Abu-Mazen wears a
business suit, not a uniform. He wears a tie, not a kuffieh. He looks like an
ordinary democratic leader. He is known for his opposition to the suicide
bombings in Israel. Contrary to all Israeli predictions, the Palestinian
transfer of power has taken place in an orderly manner, much as in any
civilized country. Within two months, new elections are to take place.
That puts Sharon on the spot. He cannot object to elections, since they
are the apple of Bush’s eye. He must not raise the slightest suspicion that
he is undermining them. Any complaint about the Israeli army hindering
elections by incursions, roadblocks and “targeted assassinations” may arouse
the ire of the White House.
Sharon is hoping that the Palestinians will sabotage their elections
themselves. Armed factions may disturb the orderly process. Last week there
was shooting during Abu-Mazen’s visit to Gaza – which caused an outburst of
joy and glee in Israel. But the incident passed, all Palestinian factions are
showing restraint and the people are unified in their desire for peaceful
elections.
For Sharon this is a nightmare. The way it looks now, elections will
indeed take place, with several candidates standing – and Abu-Mazen will be
elected president.
For Bush that will be a great achievement: the first Arab democracy
will be on its way. Even if anarchy reigns in Iraq, Palestine will prove that
his vision is coming true. Bush will embrace Abu-Mazen. The way to a “free
Palestinian state” within four years will be open.
For Sharon, there is no greater danger. His plan – to annex 58% of the
West Bank to Israel – will be struck from the agenda. He will be requested to
dismantle most of the settlements, and before that to freeze all of them.
Worse: the intimate, exclusive relationship with Bush will be upset.
The couple will become a triangle, and three is a crowd. Already Condoleezza
is about to meet Abu-Mazen.
So what can be done? Clearly, Abu-Mazen has to be destroyed before he
gets the chance to put down roots. But it is also clear that Sharon cannot
conduct any overt act against him. A strategy of indirect approach is
indicated.
Even before Arafat returned his soul to his maker, Sharon declared that
there will be no negotiations with his successors until after they “put an
end to terrorism”. He hoped that the magic word “terrorism” would make Bush
jump. And since even Arafat, with all his towering authority, did not disarm
Hamas and Jihad, there is not the slightest chance that Abu-Mazen could do it.
The Americans did not fall into this primitive trap, and so Sharon
decided to be a little more sophisticated. This week he announced that he
will not speak with Abu-Mazen unless he immediately stops the “incitement”
against Israel in all Palestinian media and schools.
Abu-Mazen might just as well be requested to pluck the moon from the
heavens. How could the new democratic chairman abolish freedom of speech on
TV and in the press – while incitement against the Palestinians continues in
the Israeli media at full blast, not to mention their dancing on Arafat’s
grave? And how does one change the schoolbooks (most of them Egyptian and
Jordanian in any case) within two months – while in Israeli schools,
especially the religious ones, both orally and in writing, the right of the
Palestinian people to their country is totally denied?
The presentation of impossible demands as a pre-condition to
negotiations is an old trick of Sharon’s. One may assume that the Americans
will not fall into this trap again. Something more extreme and immediate must
happen. For example: bloody attacks, acts of “terrorism” that can be
attributed to the new chairman, civil war, anarchy.
Abu-Mazen and his colleagues know this full well. They are working to
prevent this. Since they lack the means to apply force, they must use
persuasion. The traditional Arab method is “Ijmah” – a round of discussions
that goes on until everybody is persuaded, so that no minority will feel that
it has been vanquished by a majority. Arafat was a past master of this.
If this succeeds, there will be a temporary cease-fire until the
elections. But the main problem will remain: the new Chairman will be unable
to persuade his people to end the armed intifada if he cannot show another
way of ending the occupation and achieving Palestinian independence. If the
Americans want the new regime to take hold, they must bring about the
immediate start of negotiations, with the clear aim of establishing the State
of Palestine within a strict timetable.
Sharon will do everything he can to destroy Abu-Mazen before this
happens. He wrecked the first A