Gość: A.D,
IP: *.mco.bellsouth.net
02.07.03, 17:24
>> Bush i zydowska maszynka do glosowania zwana 'Kongresem i Senatem'
bankrutuja Ameryke!! Jeszcze za Clintona budzet byl na plusie a teraz w
dwoch latach tylko, deficyt pojawil sie ogromny. Wszystko pakuja w bron i
amunicje i za kilka lat deficyt wyniesie przeszlo 4 tryliony, zgodnie z
najnowszymi przewidywaniami. Zanosi sie na to, ze za kazda bombe i rakiete
amerykanie beda obciazac...nieboszczykow, ktorych nimi zamorduja.Groups
Predict Staggering U.S. Deficits
Wednesday July 2, 2003 3:29 PM
By ALAN FRAM
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - A liberal advocacy group and an investment bank are
projecting federal deficits over the next decade exceeding a staggering $4
trillion.
In a study to be released on Wednesday, the Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities estimates that the cumulative shortfall through 2013 will be $4.1
trillion. That assumes Congress will enact a new prescription drug benefit,
extend a series of recently enacted tax cuts that would otherwise expire,
and approve other tax reductions and spending increases that many believe
are inevitable.
During that period, annual deficits would never dip below $325 billion and
would hit $530 billion in 2013, the liberal center said. The highest deficit
ever was $290 billion in 1992.
``Acting now to reduce future deficits will make the burden imposed on
future generations noticeably smaller than if we wait five, ten or more
years to act,'' wrote Richard Kogan, author of the center's study.
Two weeks ago, the investment banking firm Goldman Sachs used many of the
same assumptions to project deficits over the same period totaling $4.5
trillion. Its forecast - which it also attributes to the weak economy and
the likelihood of election-year spending increases next year - includes
projected deficits of $425 billion this year and $450 billion in 2004.
Conservatives and another Wall Street firm said such estimates are
unreliable and probably overstated.
In its most recent forecast, the Bush administration estimated in February
that deficits would total $1 trillion over the next five years, assuming
that the president's tax and spending proposals become law.
It did not issue a 10-year projection, saying such forecasts are unreliable,
and is likely to issue an updated five-year estimate later this month that
analysts expect to be worse than February's. Joined by conservatives, the
administration argues that slight, unpredictable changes in the health of
the country's economy can have massive long-term effects on federal revenue,
spending and the budget's bottom line.
``Ten-year projections are like trying to forecast the weather 10 years
out,'' said Brian Riedl, a budget analyst with the conservative Heritage
Foundation.
Echoing that view was a newsletter last week from the investment bank J.P.
Morgan, which said many budget forecasts are far too gloomy.
``Doomsday United States budget scenarios are based on pessimistic growth
assumptions about the economy and future federal revenue,'' the newsletter
said.
Underlining the uncertainty of such long-range forecasts, they come 2- years
after government analysts envisioned 10-year surpluses totaling a record
$5.6 trillion. Thanks to a recession, higher spending and deep tax cuts that
President Bush moved through Congress, that figure has vanished in a
dizzyingly fast and steep decline such as the federal budget has never
before seen.
The predicted shortfalls also come as Congress, on vacation until next week,
moves with Bush toward enacting new prescription drug benefits that
lawmakers say should cost $400 billion over the coming 10 years. Legislators
are also working on new tax cuts and are expected to increase spending for
defense, education, domestic security and other programs later this year.
Some assumptions from the liberal budget center's study include:
-Political pressure will mean that cuts in income and other taxes, enacted
over the last three years, will not expire at various times over the next
decade, as now scheduled. 10-year cost: $1.7 trillion.
-Congress will fix the alternative minimum tax, originally designed to
ensure that the richest Americans pay at least some taxes, to prevent
millions of Americans from having to pay it. Cost: $760 billion.
-Lawmakers will enact a prescription drug benefit and provide more than
inflation increases for defense, rebuilding Iraq, domestic security and
other programs. Cost: up to $1.9 billion.
Congressional Democrats and liberal groups like the center are worried that
growing deficits will erode federal resources needed to bolster government
programs. They have accused Bush of fostering fiscal policies that are
threatening the solvency of Social Security, Medicare and other programs -
just as the huge baby boom generation prepares to retire.
As the budget picture has deteriorated, Bush administration officials have
said their chief concerns are righting the economy and fighting terrorism.
Tax cuts will strengthen the economy, producing more federal revenue that
will help eventually balance the budget, they say.
In March, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected a $1.8
trillion deficit through 2013. But that excluded the 10-year, $350 billion
tax cut and state aid package enacted in May and any other budgetary changes
that have not yet become law.
Last month, the congressional budget agency worsened its estimate of this
year's deficit to exceed $400 billion. It will not update its 10-year
forecast until August.