Global security...05-03-03

[Gość: Mosze]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/030305-israel01.htm

ABCNews.com March 5, 2003

The Israel Question
Saddam May Try to Provoke Israel, Even into Using Nuclear Weapons

In-Depth Coverage

By Oliver Libaw

Perhaps the scariest question of many surrounding the looming war with Iraq
involves Iraqi chemical and biological weapons and Israeli nuclear bombs.

A worst-case, "nightmare" scenario envisions thousands of Israeli civilian
casualties, followed by overwhelming attacks on Iraqi cities by Israel. Even
the use of nuclear weapons is conceivable in response to a major chemical or
biological attack.

"I think that it is improbable. But it is a heck of a lot less improbable
than it normally is," said John Pike, the director of GlobalSecurity.org.

Many experts expect Saddam Hussein will try to bring Israel into the war in
an attempt to unite the Arab world against the United States and Israel, and
force horrified world leaders to push for an immediate cease-fire. It is
similar to the strategy Saddam employed during the 1991 war, when 39 Iraq
Scud missiles hit Israel.

Iraq is believed to have far fewer operational missiles than it did in 1991,
but Saddam may be more likely to use whatever he has � including chemical and
biological weapons � in an all-out bid for survival or revenge.

Such an attack would be very unlikely to succeed, experts believe. Iraq's
arsenal is severely depleted and the Scud is considered an unreliable weapon
with minimal ability to disperse chemical or biological agents. U.S. forces
are also making it a priority to destroy Iraqi missiles on the ground, and
Israel has two recently upgraded missile defense systems.

But the specter of a successful Iraqi strike is harrowing, both for the
casualties on the ground and the repercussions of an Israeli retaliation.

�Nightmare� Scenarios Are Terrifying�
Experts such as Pike believe Saddam sees attacking Israel as key to his
survival.

"Saddam would like to provoke the Israelis into nuking Baghdad," said Pike.

"If the Israelis nuked Baghdad a few hours after the war starts, that changes
everything," he said. Hussein believes it would put enormous pressure on
American and Israeli forces to stop the war.

Other analysts, such as Judith Kipper, an ABCNEWS consultant who is a senior
fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, doubt that
Saddam wants to risk an Israeli attack, preferring instead to take his
chances against U.S. forces.

�But Unlikely
If Iraq decides to attack Israel, experts believe it will have few options.
Israeli intelligence officials estimate Saddam has fewer than 12 Scud
missiles. Other estimates range from zero to a few dozen.

"It hasn't got many," said Toby Dodge. "I'd be amazed if they'd hit, even if
they had free range in the west [of Iraq]."

American military planners are taking extensive measures to make sure Saddam
does not have free range to use whatever missiles he has.

Coalition "Scud hunters," seeking to destroy missile launchers around Iraq,
were generally unsuccessful in the first Gulf War, but analysts are confident
U.S. efforts this time will be much more effective.

U.S. forces are already in western Iraq identifying targets, and quickly
destroying any Iraqi missiles is a top priority for the Pentagon.

The United States has also sent advanced Patriot anti-missile batteries to
Israel. The original Patriots were widely considered ineffective after the
1991 war, but officials believe the upgraded system is significantly
improved.

Germany and the Netherlands have also loaned the Israelis Patriots.

Israel has also deployed its own Arrow anti-missile system, which intercepts
targets at a higher altitude than the Patriot. Experts hail the Arrow's
advanced design, but like the upgraded Patriot, it has never faced real
battlefield conditions.

Israeli officials say the Arrow, coupled with data from U.S. spy satellites
that can detect missiles warming up before launch, will be much more reliable
than the Patriot.

Even if a missile with a chemical or biological agent penetrates Israel, it
might not cause extensive damage or deaths.

Dodge stresses that Scud missiles are poor at dispersing such agents.

"Most of the nasty stuff inside would be incinerated," he said.

Pressure to Retaliate; Pressure to Stay Out
In 1991, Israel came close to retaliating against Iraq, despite intense U.S.
pressure to remain on the sidelines. Many experts believe this time Israel
would respond to an attack of that magnitude.

Once again, U.S. officials are pressuring Israel not to retaliate against any
Iraqi attacks.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has said he understands U.S. concerns
about Israeli involvement.

"We are not involved in the war. And we understand the sensitivity of the
situation in the Middle East," Sharon said in January.

But he has also told U.S. officials Israel would strike back against a
successful attack by Iraq.

"If Israel is hit in any way, they'll hit back very, very heavily," predicted
Dodge. Israeli leaders are determined not to show weakness in the face of an
attack, he says.

Other experts suggest there will be little for Israel to do, even if it wants
to respond to an Iraqi assault.

"If Iraq is already subject to consistent and I would say sustained U.S.
bombardment, what is it, exactly, that Israel can do that would be
impressive?" asked Shai Feldman, of Tel Aviv University.

The country's leaders have so far remained silent on how they would respond
to various scenarios of Iraqi aggression.

"Israel says if attacked we reserve the right to defend ourselves. We don't
specifically describe what we will do or what we won't do," said Mark Regev,
a spokesman for the Israeli embassy.

"We hope that we won't have to use those options."

Worrying About �Mega Terror� Attacks
Experts fear there are other ways Saddam can strike at Israel if he chooses.
He may have trainer aircraft he could use as drones to fly chemical or
biological weapons to targets in the country, though many doubt Iraq could
launch and guide the planes successfully.

Saddam has been offering payments to families of Palestinian suicide bombers
and officials believe he has broad influence over some terror networks in the
West Bank and Gaza Strip.

"He could possibly aspire to terrorist attacks and possibly a mega terrorist
attack," said Regev.

The Hamas terrorist group has openly called for Muslims around the world to
attack Western targets in the event of war.

Palestinian terrorists may be unwilling to mount a large-scale terrorist
attack inside Israel, out of fear of heavy reprisals by Israeli forces.

Israel is also concerned that members of Hezbollah could mount rocket attacks
at targets along Israel's northern border.

The military wing of Hezbollah, the Islamic group based in Lebanon and armed
by Syria and Iran, could draw Israel into a conflict during a war by
targeting cities with missiles.

Hezbollah, which was responsible for the deaths of 241 U.S. Marines in a 1983
bombing in Lebanon, may also be too worried about retaliation to provoke
Israel and the United States.

In a recent news conference, Sharon warned: "They can be quiet. And if they
will be quiet, nothing will happen to them."

Some observers also fear that Israel could use the war against Iraq as a
pretext for a massive crackdown on Palestinians.

A Psychological Toll
"There is certainly a fear within Israel this time that Iraq could have some
type of sleeper cell," said Max Abrams, a fellow at the Washington Institute
for Near East Policy.

In the first Gulf War, Iraqi Scuds caused extensive damage and killed two
Israelis. The attacks also took a tremendous psychological toll on Israel,