"Die Welt" szacuje straty rosyjskie w Czeczenii

[robertpk]

jakiej ludności cywilnej ??

za kilka lat nie będzie tam oprócz rosyjskiej armii i
partyzantów nikogo

strategia jest prosta - jak akcja "wisła" - tyle że o wiele
brutalniejsza i rozłożona na raty.

Pełny artykuł po angielsku,z komentarzem

[Gość: Disoria]

The lost war


Die Welt
Sunday, 13 October 2002


Confidential papers from the German Chancellor's Office
document that
Russia is waging an unwinnable war against the rebels in
Chechnnya.

By Friedemann Weckbach-Mara


Russia can't win the war in Chechnya militarily but doesn't
want to end
it politically. This is the basic statement in the most recent
confidential dossier from intelligence and military experts for
the
Chancellor's Office.

Immediately at the beginning, it reads word-for-word: "There is
no
sincere readiness for a possible political solution". According
to the
dossier, the military situation is much more serious than
admitted so
far by Moscow. Though 65,000 Russian soldiers - according to
the dossier
- are facing not much more than 2,000 armed rebels in Chechnya,
the
rebels succeed to "maintain the resistance and the level of
attacks".

Only last Friday, a rebel bomb attack on a police station in
Grozny
killed at least 19 people.

According to the dossier, which has been in the hands of the
Chancellor's Office since the beginning of the week, the main
reasons
for the "lack of success" of the deployed Russian forces are
their
"desolate condition", the support for the rebels from the
population,
and an enormous "confusion of competences", which especially
effects the
tactical level, "where the people die".

Theoretically, the command structure of the Russian forces
deployed in
Chechnya is principally correct from the viewpoint of Western
military
experts as well. But in real life, besides the command
level "Special
Operation in Chechnya" with its command line to the troops,
there are up
to 17 additional command headquarters like the Interior
Ministry, the
border troops, the Ministry for Civil Defense, the police
command or the
commander of the railway troops. Each of them gives action
orders to
"their" soldiers via the operational staff, and even more
often,
directly on the spot.

The result, according to the dossier, are "high casualties" due
to fire
from the own troops, the so-called "friendly fire".
Additionally, there
are "rivalries during action, fear of responsibility and
secrecy holes".
No end is in sight for the command chaos and the corruption in
the
military, which goes as far as to sell its own weapons.

So far, in the eleven years since Johar Dudayev's attempt to
unilaterally push through Chechen independence, there have been
five
armed conflicts. Now Moscow officially declares that "at the
beginning
of next year it would give Chechnya, as one of the 89 subjects
of the
Russian Federation, a constitution which the population then
can vote
about". But according to the dossier for the Chancellor's
Office,
already for the start of 2003, a new phase of the war can be
expected,
because the fighting in the Caucasus Republic "continues
relentlessly,
in a very hard way and with high casualties". The politically
ordered
end of the war is called "plain wishful thinking".

The number of border troops has even been increased to 3,000
men this
year. The paratroopers couldn't be withdrawn as originally
planned. By
the end of 2003, the 46th Brigade is planned to consist only of
Chechen
volunteers and to number 10,000 men. But, according to the
dossier, it
is "currently impossible to see how the ideas of the plan can
be put
into practice". A total blockade of the borders which would cut
the
logistics of the resistance "can't be secured". There's no
change in the
fact that a total control of the Chechen territory doesn't
succeed.

Though the rebels today aren't able to carry out a coordinated
action on
a larger scale, as .e.g a move on Grozny, they are able at any
time to
carry out punctual attacks with perceptible losses of the
federal
forces: "The vulnerability of the Russian soldiers to mine
attacks
during all movement on land is unchanged and high. The
endangerment for
air transports can't be prohibited, because the rebels are in
possession
of air defense missiles. Outside of strongly secured military
objects,
the nights belong to the rebels."

Against the official Russian data about the loss of 4,500
soldiers, the
dossier places its own estimation of almost 10,000. More than
80,000
Chechens have lost their lives, instead of the officially given
number
of 14,000, according to the dossier.

At this moment, there are no signs of a reconstruction of
Chechnya.
There hasn't been any tax revenue, misuse of money and
corruption
continue to characterize the financial policy. Four billion
rubles for
the reconstruction of Chechnya during the fiscal year
2002 "have seeped
away on the spot without measurable improvements". And no
change for the
better is in sight in any field, according to the dossier.
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[Gość: Bartosz Sawicki]

To znakomicie ze Die Welt powolujac sie na przecieki z wywiadu zadaje klam rosyjskiej propagandze. Niemniej jeszcze milej by bylo gdyby byc moze korzystajac z tych samych zrodel napisal dlaczego niemiecki MSZ nonstop uwiarygadnia polityke bandyty Putina.