Rosyjski eksport uzbrojenia

[Gość: A.L.]

Ciekawa wypowiedź o przyszłości rosyjskiego eksportu uzbrojenia. Tradycyjni
odbiorcy zaczynają się wykruszać, a Francja i Niemcy łapczywie spoglądają na
Chiny.

Russian Arms Sales on the Decline

2005-05-13

By: Forecast International, Defense Marketing Services (DMS)


A Forecast International Military Market Report warns that Russia's steadily
declining arms export market, plagued by a poor reputation, is likely to get
worse in the years ahead. The recently updated Russia report featured in
FI's "International Military Markets - NATO & Europe," notes that Russian
arms exports dropped by nearly 26 percent from 2003 to 2004 - from $5.3
billion to $3.9 billion. This despite the country's efforts to attract sales
using offsets, debt swaps and creative financing.

The Soviet Union's collapse at the end of the Cold War left most Russian
contractors without substantial government funding. Aircraft manufacturers
like Mikoyan, Sukhoi and Mil, for example, were seriously affected when the
flow of state subsidies dried up, which left little for research and
development. In addition, former Soviet satellite nations, which
traditionally turned to Russian manufacturers for military hardware, now shop
the world market.

Studies by the Russian Rosoboronexport agency - tasked with exporting Russian
military technology - also substantiate the fact that Russian arms exports
have seen a decline in recent years because of poor investment.

"It becomes clear through an analysis of export trends that growth in the
Russian defense industry is impossible without large investment," said
Forecast International Defense Analyst Charles W. Falzone III.

Russian Research and Development firms have promising new-technology
blueprints, but little means to fund development projects that yield
prototypes. That most Russian military technology transferred in the
previous five years featured modified designs developed in the 1970s and
1980s is another factor contributing to the decline in arms exports.

"Additionally, Russia has been unable to break into defense markets where
Western arms manufacturers are well established," Falzone said, "partly
because Russian arms are not only viewed as technologically inferior, but
also because the Russian defense industry has gained a poor reputation for
providing follow-on support, spare parts and training for their weapons
platforms."

Much of the Russian defense market is based on sales to China and India,
which poses a problem in the coming years. France and Germany, eager to
supply military technology and hardware to China, are pushing the European
Union to lift the 12-year-old Chinese arms embargo. Although the EU is still
debating the issue, it appears repeal is likely within the next several years
if not sooner. In turn, China is more likely to choose top-of-the-line
Western hardware, such as France's Rafale or Sweden's Gripen fighters -
currently under EU embargo- over what is generally perceived to be aging
Russian technology.