polarbeer
20.04.08, 01:09
na temat jednego z bardziej fascynujacych wydarzen ok dwa lata temu... Wowczas
Warren Buffet "przedwczesnie sprzedal" cale srebro ktore kupil dla Berkshire
Hathaway duzo wczesniej ponizej $4 za uncje... Tak sie zlozylo ze mniej wiecej
tyle amo srebra zapoczatkowalo wowczas pierwszy ETF srebra (Fundusz na
gieldzie gdzie inwestorzy kupuja fizyczne srebro tak jak akcje firm).
Wedlug tej teorii Warren Buffet uzywal srebra do zarobku, sprzedajac kontrakty
terminowe na to srebro i gdy srebro skoczylo z 5 do 9 dolarow bardzo szybko,
mial do wyboru: wytlumaczyc sie w jaki sopsob stracil pieniadze albo zarobic
dolary ale stracic srebro. Wybral to drugie... za marny zysk zostal zrzucaony
z grzbietu srebrnego byka.
www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie041608.html
Buffett owned in Berkshire Hathaway 129 million ounces of silver, bought under
$4 per ounce a long time ago. He boasted of the smart buy. It did not just sit
idly. He earned a yield off the metal position by selling forward contract
options. This is no different from selling option calls on forward contracts
for Cisco Systems or General Electric. The practice earns a yield, an income
stream, sometimes hefty. The risk is that the price moves up too fast, and the
holder of the options (other guy) exercises the right of taking your stock, or
in Buffett’s case the silver bullion, at the option contract price.
My guess is Buffett sold option calls at a $7 price when silver was selling at
a $5 price. The silver price moved up rapidly, to his surprise. That left him
with two choices. He could buy back the contracts, his sold options calls, at
a big loss. Or he could permit the option contract holder to call away his
position, selling to that party for the contracted $7 price. The first choice
would mean announcement of a loss to Berkshire Hathaway holders, who would
naively expect a profit from silver going from $4 to $9. An open admission
like that would have exposed Buffett to criticism for mismanaging a silver
position, but more importantly, for bringing attention to how silver metal
DOES earns a yield. He made the cowardly second choice. He said to his
shareholders, a bold lie in my view, that he sold his silver position too
early. He did not sell it willingly. He sold it from exercise of a failed
option call, written calls, used widely to earn income, like a dividend yield,
a standard practice. Buffett did not understand the silver market. More could
lurk behind the scenes to this story. Buffett might have been forced to sell
his position, to satisfy Greenberg and his cartel buddies, who were desperate
to find sufficient physical silver during broad shortages. Greenberg was under
investigation for fraud. Buffett might have been involved. Buffettt might have
wiggled out of trouble by giving in to the regulatory authorities, letting his
silver position be sold to help supply. We may never know the truth. My
version is much more credible than Warren’s, that he just sold too early.
Nonsense!
