Szykuje sie swiatowy krach finansowy

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Prawda jest taka ze od lat USA zyje prakrtcznie rzecz biorac znacznie ponad
stan czyli za pieniadze pozyczane od reszty swiata. Z tego co sie ostatnio
sltszy na gieldach zapowiada sie spektakularny krach dolara ktory bedzie mial
reperkusje trudne do przewidzenia. Radze zapiac pasy i ubrac jakis solidny
poniemiecki, czy porosyjski chelm.

www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=57798

TEN KRACH GROZI TYLKO STREFIE DOLARA...

[Gość: .]

NIECH SIE SAUDOWIE I RESZTA ARABSTWA MARTWI...

Tudziez POLACTWO, lokujace zaskorniaki w "dulary".

70 % obrotow swiata jest w $$

[Gość: chala]

ucierpia najslabsi. Musza za nas placic jesli nie chca zginac z glodu. To jest
globalizacja ryzyka. hehe

Juz tylko 70% obrotow

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Dollar Slumps Against Euro
10-24-4

NEW YORK (AFP) - The dollar slumped to a fresh eight-month low against the
euro, and flirted near four-month lows against the Japanese yen as the currency
markets continued to fret over US economic growth.

At 2100 GMT, the euro was trading at 1.2613 dollars in late New York trade, up
sharply from 1.2585 late Wednesday.

In earlier European trading, the euro had soared as high as 1.2652 dollars, on
renewed concerns over US economic growth and soaring oil prices.

The dollar also declined against the yen, trading at 107.46 late Thursday, down
from 108.20 a day earlier.

The sell-off continued after a key US economic barometer weakened for the
fourth straight month in September as oil prices surged, showing a worrying
loss of momentum.

The Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators,
forecasting activity in the coming months, dipped 0.1 point from the previous
month to 115.6, in line with Wall Street expectations.

"A fourth consecutive decline in the leading economic indicators is a clear
signal that the economy is losing momentum heading into 2005," Conference Board
economist Ken Goldstein said.

Traders said concerns about the US current account and budget deficits were
also fueling dollar angst.

The week-long sell off of the dollar continued apace despite US Treasury
Secretary John Snow telling reporters on Wednesday the US government supported
a "strong dollar."

The dollar continues to trade around lows against the euro last seen in
February as record oil prices also add to the mounting economic frets, New York
oil prices closed out the day at 54.92 dollars a barrel Thursday.

"It's clear that euro strength isn't coming from any eurozone economic data but
rather from a massive shift in market psychology that has turned decidedly
dollar bearish since Monday's (capital flows) report," said Boris Schlossberg,
a currency analyst with FX Capital Markets.

A report by JP Morgan this week showed net foreign capital flows into the
United States fell to 59 billion dollars in August from a revised 63.1 billion
in July.

And some analysts are now predicting the dollar could weaken further, and that
the euro could even pierce 1.27 dollars in the next month.

Traders said concern about the neck-and-neck US presidential race had also done
little to calm the market's nerves.

In late New York trade, the dollar stood at 1.2174 Swiss francs from 1.2217
Thursday.

The pound stood at 1.8269 dollars after 1.8161.

I ponad 60% rezerw walutowych swiata 4% populacji.

[Gość: chala]

Stac was by nas utrzymac w stylu do ktorego przywyklismy. hehe. Niech traca. I
tak musza dofinansowywac, by ratowac to co juz maja. UE mozna rozwalic jesli
niewygodnym staloby sie. Narazie tylko korzysci.

Krach finansowy czy umyslowy piszacych o nim?

[Gość: Alfred]

W jakiej walucie realizuje sie zobowiazania miedzynarodowe?
Kto jest odpowiedzialny za produkcje nowych dolarow?
Czyja gospodarka jest tak duza, ze trzeba sumy 7 kolejno najwiekszych
gospodarek narodowych aby osiagnac taka sama wielkosc?
Jak odpowiecie sobie na te pytania, to zrozumiecie.

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Countries for which no information is available are not included in this list.
Rank Country GDP - per capita Date of Information
1 Luxembourg $ 55,100 2003 est.
2 Norway $ 37,800 2003 est.
3 United States $ 37,800 2003 est.
4 Bermuda $ 36,000 2003 est.
5 Cayman Islands $ 35,000 2002 est.
6 San Marino $ 34,600 2001 est.
7 Switzerland $ 32,700 2003 est.
8 Denmark $ 31,100 2003 est.
9 Iceland $ 30,900 2003 est.
10 Austria $ 30,000 2003 est.
11 Canada $ 29,800 2003 est.
12 Ireland $ 29,600 2003 est.
13 Belgium $ 29,100 2003 est.
14 Australia $ 29,000 2003 est.
15 Hong Kong $ 28,800 2003 est.
16 Netherlands $ 28,600 2003 est.
17 Japan $ 28,200 2003 est.
18 Aruba $ 28,000 2002 est.
19 United Kingdom $ 27,700 2003 est.
20 France $ 27,600 2003 est.
21 Germany $ 27,600 2003 est.
22 Finland $ 27,400 2003 est.
23 Monaco $ 27,000 1999 est.
24 Sweden $ 26,800 2003 est.
25 Italy $ 26,700 2003 est.
26 Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) $ 25,000 2002 est.
27 Liechtenstein $ 25,000 1999 est.
28 Jersey $ 24,800 1999 est.
29 Singapore $ 23,700 2003 est.
30 Taiwan $ 23,400 2003 est.
31 United Arab Emirates $ 23,200 2003 est.
32 Faroe Islands $ 22,000 2001 est.
33 Spain $ 22,000 2003 est.
34 New Zealand $ 21,600 2003 est.
35 Qatar $ 21,500 2003 est.
36 Guam $ 21,000 2000 est.
37 Man, Isle of $ 21,000 2001 est.
38 Guernsey $ 20,000 1999 est.
39 Greenland $ 20,000 2001 est.
40 Greece $ 20,000 2003 est.
41 Israel $ 19,800 2003 est.
42 Macau $ 19,400 2003 est.
43 Cyprus $ 19,200 2003 est.
44 Andorra $ 19,000 2000 est.
45 Slovenia $ 19,000 2003 est.
46 Kuwait $ 19,000 2003 est.
47 Brunei $ 18,600 2002 est.
48 Portugal $ 18,000 2003 est.
49 Korea, South $ 17,800 2003 est.
50 Malta $ 17,700 2003 est.
51 French Polynesia $ 17,500 2001 est.
52 Gibraltar $ 17,500 1997 est.
53 Virgin Islands $ 17,200 2002 est.
54 Bahrain $ 16,900 2003 est.
55 Puerto Rico $ 16,800 2003 est.
56 Bahamas, The $ 16,700 2003 est.
57 British Virgin Islands $ 16,000 2002 est.
58 Barbados $ 15,700 2003 est.
59 Czech Republic $ 15,700 2003 est.
60 New Caledonia $ 15,000 2001 est.
61 Martinique $ 14,400 2001 est.
62 Hungary $ 13,900 2003 est.
63 Slovakia $ 13,300 2003 est.
64 Oman $ 13,100 2003 est.
65 Uruguay $ 12,800 2003 est.
66 Northern Mariana Islands $ 12,500 2000 est.
67 Estonia $ 12,300 2003 est.
68 Saudi Arabia $ 11,800 2003 est.
69 Lithuania $ 11,400 2003 est.
70 Mauritius $ 11,400 2003 est.
71 Netherlands Antilles $ 11,400 2003 est.
72 Argentina $ 11,200 2003 est.
73 Poland $ 11,100 2003 est.
74 Antigua and Barbuda $ 11,000 2002 est.
75 South Africa $ 10,700 2003 est.
76 Croatia $ 10,600 2003 est.
77 Latvia

[Gość: zbalansowany]

www.worldbank.org/data/databytopic/GDP.pdf

Poswiecam domoroslym expertom

[Gość: zbalansowant]

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 25 Oct 2004 at 03:29:07 AM GMT is:

7,435,794,314,215.59

The estimated population of the United States is 294,619,727
so each citizen's share of this debt is $25,238.62.

www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1.67 billion per day since September 30, 2003!

Studiowales ekonomie? Czytasz Wall Street Journal?

[Gość: Alfred]

Wiesz co to oznacza "national debt"? Nie myl tego z deficytem ani z
zobowiazaniami US Treasury. Podobnie, sprawdz lepiej jaki jest stosunek
wielkosci inwestycji do wielkosci dlugu. Radze rowniez zobaczyc jakie sa
proporcje dlugow narodowych do dochodow narodowych 20 najwiekszych gospodarek
swiata. Dobrze tez pomyslec czy Federal Reserve wstrzymywanie inflacji moze
ulec zmianie. Mialoby to olbrzymi wplyw na dlug narodowy. Problem jest bardziej
skomplikowany niz wynika to z prostych zestawien.

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Nie chodzi o to ze "problem jest skomplikowany", chodzi o to ze problemn jest
NIEROZWIAZYWALNY ani ekonomicznie, ani politycznie. Bez wielkiego "BABG!!" sie
nie obejdzie. Kazdy kto tego nie widzi zyje w swiecie fantazji.

Czy Ty nie jestes czasem z kregow katastrofistow?

[Gość: Alfred]

Przepowiadaja ciagle krach na gieldzie, walniecie meteoru, przyjscie Jezusa,
rozpad USA, globalna wojne atomowa, ruchy kontynentow itd. Forma straszenia nie
jest wazna. Nie martw sie. radze Ci zaczac inwestowa. Jesli bedziesz to robil
madrze to przestaniesz byc katastrofista. Dalem Ci kilk amysli do sprawdzenia
ale widze, ze chociaz w Australii, to ciagle myslisz jakbys zyl w Polsce.
Sprawdz jednak to - lepiej sie poczujesz. Dlug narodowy nie jest wcale zly do
napedzania gospodarki. Tylko ekonomisci chowani na Keynes'ie strasza nas.

reality

[Gość: zbalansowany]

USA od lat zyje na kredyt. Dlugi, imbalans w handlu zagranicznym podwazyly
wiarygodnosc Ameryki do tego stopnia ze sytuacja staje sie krytyczna.
Paradoksalnie wszystko toczy sie tylko dlatego ze ogrom dlugu jest taki iz
nikogo nie stac ns spisanie go na straty (mowie o duzych graczach, czyli
panstwach). Denerwuja sie "mali" gracze i zaczynaja uciekac od dolara. Rosja
tez powoli przechodzi na Euro, a Stanach zabawa trwa jak na Titaniku. Greenspan
ktory juz lata temu powinien byl doprowadzic do kontrolowanej recesji co
oczysciloby atmosfere, kontynuuje linie taniego kredytu, ale ta polityka juz
jest na ostatnich nogach (zakladam ze wiesz jak to wygladalo w Japonii i jak
dalej wyglada). Jezeli deficyt handlu i wydatki rzadu federalnego pozostana
takie jakie sa, to nastapi masowa ucieczka od dolara, fed bedzie musial
podniesc stopy aby ograniczyc odplyw, a recesja przyjdzie taka o jakiej sie nam
nie snilo w najczarniejszych snach.
Odpowiedz sobie na pytaqnie 1jaki % GDP idzie na finansowanie dlugu FED
2 Jak dlugo przy takim deficycie handlowym sytuacja jest do wytrzymania?

Nie, nie jestem czarnowidzem, patrze tylko na cyfry i wlos mi sie jerzy.

Doomsday, czyli "ostatnie nogi" zblazowanego

[Gość: Ostatnie.nogi]

Zblazowany zbi(a)lansowany vel "ostatnie nogi" napisał >> wlos mi sie jerzy.

Panie Jerzy, mnie tez sie jezy, kiedy pundits (do ktorych pan oczywiscie
nalezy), wypisuja prognozy i analizy, po ktore najwieksi rodzimi ekonomisci w
rodzaju wielkiego maga Kolodki ustawialiby sie w kolejce, by tlumaczyc nimi swe
polityczne pociagniecia. Polonisci i jezykowi purysci rowniez mieliby w czym
pogrzebac. Wypowiedz pana Jerzego to gratka nie lada.

Wysoce zsocjalizowna gospodarka australijska oczywiscie nie nastraja pana
Jerzego zbyt pozytywnie wobec jankeskiej maszynerii gospodarczej. To naturalny
odruch, panie Jerzy. Przerazliwe poszczekiwanie ratlerka zawsze przebija sie
przez skowyt buldoga. Dobrze, ze zeby nie ida w parze ze skowytem.

Doomsday sayers nigdy godpodarki nie rozumieli i nie zrozumieja. Na wyglaszanie
truizmow i proby tlumaczenia szkoda czasu, skoro Zbi(a)lansowany pan Jerzy
ma 'agende' do zrealizowania i zaklada tematy, ktore pomoc maja w gloszeniu
teorii o zlym wujku Samie.

A do tego miesza pan Jerzy Japonie. Dobrze, ze jej znacznie blizej do Ameryki
niz Australii. A w Japonii wyglada niezle i coraz lepiej, o czym pana Jerzego z
szacunkiem zapewniam. Lece do dealera kupowac nowego Lexusa-Celsiora.

[Gość: zbalansowany]

"Wysoce zsocjalizowna gospodarka australijska oczywiscie"

Wysoce zsocjalizowana???????
Po 9 latach rzadow Liberalow??????
Nie masz pojecia kolezko sniegowy o czym mowisz!!!!!

[marcus_crasuss]

Gość portalu: zbalansowany napisał(a):

>
>
> "Wysoce zsocjalizowna gospodarka australijska oczywiscie"
>
> Wysoce zsocjalizowana???????
> Po 9 latach rzadow Liberalow??????
> Nie masz pojecia kolezko sniegowy o czym mowisz!!!!!
>



Nie potrafisz Zbalansowany czytac miedzy wierszami.

Przetlumacze ci co chcial forumowicz "ostatnie nogi" wyrazic.

1. jestem w Japonii
2. Stac mnie na Lepsza Toyote
3. Zrobiles blad.

Reszta to tylko "wypelniacze" wiec nie ma sensu sie do nich ustosunkowywac.

[Gość: Ostatnie.nogi]

Czyby, zbi(a)lansowany ?

'The Age' (theage.com.au) z 15 wrzesnia: "Real spending by the entire state
sector - still 14 per cent of the Australian economy - shrank 0.1 per cent in
Victoria, but grew 3.1 per cent elsewhere."

Czy nie uwazasz, ze 14 procent to w dalszym ciagu zdziebko za duzo ?

Zycie jest piekne, jesli chce sie wstac, podniesc dupe i cos dla siebie (a przy
okazji dla innych) uczynic.

To istny koszmar dla propagandzistow, agitatorow i niewolnikow cudzych
pogladow. Wtedy tylko koc na glowe i oczekiwanie na Sad Ostateczny.

[Gość: Jerzy]

Dobra odpowiedz, Alfredzie.Wymaga jednak od dyskutantow chocby minimum
ekonomicznego wyksztalcenia.Inaczej sa to bezmyslnie tlumaczone (lub nie)
dziennikarskie banialuki. Na temat ogolnoswiatowego krachu finansowego czyta
sie od czasu do czasu podobne bzdury takze w Szwecji.
To jeszcze jedna bajeczka puszczona w obieg przez "antyglobalistow", do
ktorych "Zbalansowany" nalezy.
(J)

[marcus_crasuss]

Gość portalu: Jerzy napisał(a):

> Na temat ogolnoswiatowego krachu finansowego czyta
> sie od czasu do czasu podobne bzdury takze w Szwecji.
> To jeszcze jedna bajeczka puszczona w obieg przez "antyglobalistow", do
> ktorych "Zbalansowany" nalezy.
> (J)


Nazabawniejsze gdy pisze o "bajeczkach" "szanowny kolega", zwolennik "mocno
lansowanej ostatnio teorii ekonomiczno-spoleczna :"20-80"

Oooo...I komuszki tez!

[Gość: .]

Oooo...I Gabi tez!

[marcus_crasuss]

www.affichescinema.com/insc_a/aventures_fanta_munchausen.jpg

Oooo...I falszywa krasula, czyli nick:Spotty Dick

[kropekuk]

www.funegreets.com/insults/insdickhead.htm

przy globalnej gospodarce wszystkie te cyfry mozna

[Gość: jarek-Zyd ne telus]

w zadek wsadzic, przez dwa lata pracowalismy dla Amerykanskiej firmy w Istambule
i jakos ta firma nam doskonale placac( poza USA) i bedac zarejestrowana w
Londynie, bardzo chcialbym wiedziec czy sie ona do wzrostu albo zmiejszenia
zadluzenia przyczynila, prawie wszyscy ten firmy szefowie mieli fiskalna
resydence w krajach poza USA, a praktycznie mieszkali w USa, czy ich zakupy
przyczynily sie do wzrostu USa deficytu a zarobki do czego sie przyczynily.
Gospodarka swiatowa tak dlugo nie upadnie jak dlugo Chiny i India beda mialy
interes w USA sprzedawac, a spadek dollaru najpierw uderzy w Europe( wez po
uwage ceny BMW w Hiszpani i USA) , ten sam model kosztuje w USA 30 % mniej niz w
Hiszpani, a kto do tej ceny doplaca, chyba nie ten co BMW w USA kupuje.

Zalezy gdzie, w transporcie zwykle w frankach

[Gość: .]

szwajcarskich...;). Nie badzcie etnocentryczni!

Dam Ci dobra rade. Piszesz wiersze, zostan przy

[Gość: Alfred]

nich. Myslisz jak Polak, ktory wszystko wie a przeciez nie masz pojecia o
ekonomii, statystyce i platnosciach miedzynarodowych.

O tych frankach akurat wiem..A Ty CO importowales?

[Gość: .]

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Pisze wierszyki dla zabawy.
Na pewno nie wiem wszystkiego (co ma do tego ze jestem Polakiem?)
Skad wiesz co wiem a czego nie wiem o ekonomii?
I statystyke i ekonomie wyobraz sobie studiowalem i to nie na UMLU.
Sam profesjonalnie "siedze" w finansach, wprawdzie nie miedzynarodowych,
niemniej o paru sprawach mam pojecie.

Zeby zakonczyc, to jak mowia Rosjanie

Pozywiom, uwidim.

[Gość: Beta]

> Sam profesjonalnie "siedze" w finansach, wprawdzie nie miedzynarodowych,
> niemniej o paru sprawach mam pojecie.

Najlepszy humor jaki ostatnio przeczytalam.

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Wiem ze ludzie maja dziwne poczucie humoru, to i dobrze, ale czytam naprawde
nie moge pojac co tak cie ubawilo?

To prawda, siedzi za machlojki finansowe.

[Gość: jarek-Zyd ne telus]

Splacimy dlugi denominowane w dolarach

[Gość: Wielkiemico]

[fredzio54]

jak bedzie tak bedzies musial jesc krolikow albo wielbladow :))))

Zbalansowany to kangury, kroliki moze tez jakies

[Gość: .]

sie im jeszcze ostaly...

Z Kerrym jako prezydentem to $ bedzie mozna

[Gość: jarek-Zyd ne telus]

za .65 Euro kupic z Bushem moze za .68 a w koncu co nas to obchodzi, przeciez
nasza waluta nie nazywa sie dollarem. Juz w latach 1973-75 mozna bylo jeden
dollar za 1.3 Dm kupic i cos nic sie nie zawalilo, oprocz kommunismu 15 lat
pozniej, moze tym czasem sie islam zawali...a un buon rendere.

A tak dla twojej szanownej informacji, zadne jeszc

[Gość: jarek-Zyd ne telus]

swiatowe cesarstwo nie upadlo z powodu finansow, jesli sie nie myle to Hiszpania
za Filipa II oglosila bankorupstwo i cos nie upadla.Turki juz w drugiej polowie
XVII wiku tez cos takiego oglosili i tez potrzeba bylo prawie 200 lat, aby upadli.

A Zyd to nawet 3 razy zbanktutowal bo mial 3 corki

[Gość: .]

na wydaniu i wyposazyc je bylo trzeba;)
Jasne, gdy jestes Wielkim Dluznikiem, to o twoje dlugi MARTWI SIE BANK!

Alfred przestan sie wpuszczac w dyskusje

[Gość: igor]

z ludzmi na tematy tak specjalistyczne. Najlepszy jest geniusz 'zbalansowany,
specjalista of fiansow w Australii'. Jego jezyk fachowca przypomina mi
cinkciarzy PRL. Tez fachowa finansjera. Wiekszosc forumowcow pisze o biedzie,
nedzy, glodzie, rozpadzie, krachu, glupocie, bledach itp. Amerykanow i USA.
Sytuacja musi byc faktycznie zla w Polsce, ze sami pesymisci. Ale Australia,
tez 'socjalizm zachodni' jak w Unii ale nie jest tak tam zle. Czyzby prywatnie
sie nie wiodlo finansiscie?

Na temat

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Dziekuje za krytyczne opinie, problem polega jednak na tym ze zaden z moich
adwersarzy nie powiedzial nic innego jak :

Co sie martwisz, jakos bylo tak przedtem, to bedzie i teraz.

Nikt nie powiedzial : Przeciez USA moze zrobic to i to i za lat 10, 15 wszystko
wroci do normy. Mozna oczywiscie przyjac taka postwe tylko dla mnie jest to
chowanie glowy w piasek. Jezeli problem istnieje (nikt z was temu tez nie
zaprzecza) to przejscie nad nim do porzadku dziennego niczego nie rozwiazuje, a
jak widzicie z danych tylko sie poglebia.

Roznice zdan

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Monday Matchup
Can The U.S. Stock Market Crash Again?
Peter Kang, 10.25.04, 6:00 AM ET





It Can Happen...
Robert Prechter

Title:
Founder of research firm Elliott Wave International, author of Conquer the
Crash.
Probability of a 1929-like crash:
High. "Every one of the preconditions for a crash is in place, to a greater
degree than ever."
Conditions needed for a crash:
Extreme optimism; a narrowing of breadth (advances versus declines) in the
preceding uptrend; a market that fails to rally to new highs.
What's different today:
Nothing. "Human herding propels markets."
The Fed:
"Fed intervention to push interest rates down encourages debt. The greater
the debt load, the bigger the bubble, and the bigger the bubble, the bigger
the ultimate crash."
Outlook:
"The market has already completed a counter-trend rally, and the psychology
of investors, advisers and economists is dangerously optimistic. The market
is probably doing something more akin to what happened in 1835-1842 or
1929-1932 [versus the 1970s]. According to my analysis, the bear market has
already resumed, so the crash potential is significant."
Investment picks:
Cash and cash equivalents in a safe bank.
It Can't Happen...
Alfred Goldman
Title:
Chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards
Probability of a 1929-like crash:
"I would say zero to none. I don't even think about it, it's negligible."

Conditions for a crash:
Weak financial infrastructure, lack of global communication.
What's different today:
"The whole financial structure is different than it was in 1929. Nations
didn't talk to each other. Today, we talk to them too much."
The Fed:
"We have a very strong Federal Reserve. Their ability to help the market
during bad times is substantial."
Outlook:
"The economy is the strongest it has been in 20 years. The bear market that
we had in February 2000 was the second worst since the Great Depression. We
had a tremendous crash of the stock bubble, a collapse of telecom and
Internet stocks. We had a recession, we had Sept. 11, war, accounting
scandals, corporate malfeasance, mutual fund scandals, and it still didn't
match the break of 1929. You come out stronger."
Investment picks:
Consumer nondurables and medical-related products, including large-cap
pharmaceuticals.


Wall Street experienced some of its darkest moments 75 years ago in October
1929. Three "black" days over four trading sessions started a punishing
decline in stocks that wouldn't end until 1932.

America entered into a decade-long funk known as the Great Depression, and
yet many publicly traded companies from that time endured and still exist,
including AT&T (nyse: HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?
tkr=T"T - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=T"news - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=T
"people ), Coca-Cola (nyse: HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?
tkr=KO"KO - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=KO"news - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=K
O"people ), DuPont (nyse: HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?
tkr=DD"DD - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=DD"news - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=D
D"people ), General Electric (nyse: HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?
tkr=GE"GE - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=GE"news - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=G
E"people ) and General Motors (nyse: HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?
tkr=GM"GM - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=GM"news - HYPERLINK
"www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=G
M"people ). But could a crash happen again? Conservative optimism reigns on
Wall Street. While most market strategists don't rule out the possibility of
a market crash of titanic proportions, the majority say the likelihood is
very low, less than 1%.

Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist at State Street Global Markets,
says fear and greed are two primary drivers of market crashes.

"We saw that at the end of the 1990s--it was essentially a melt-up, people
were just getting greedy," he says. "With cases of extreme fear, even with
the circuit breakers [automatic trading halts] and a proactive Fed, you
don't know what kind of panic fear can bring. You can't prevent crashes; you
can only cushion them."

Ralph Acampora, chief market strategist at Prudential Equity Group, doesn't
forecast anything as drastic as a crash any time soon but predicts "real
nasty declines" in the second half of 2005. Prior to then, however, the
market will reach new highs, with the Dow hitting 12,000, Acampora says.

"They call it a stealth bull market, and it's not over," he says. "A roaring
bull market is going on right now under the surface, and no one knows about
it. The breadth of the market is spectacular. Do we have the makings of a
crash? Not at all."




HYPERLINK
"forbesCollect.247realmedia.com/data/?tax0_SiteID=1&JS=False"
HYPERLINK "secure-us.imrworldwide.com/cgi-bin/m?ci=us-forbes&cg=0"

Specjalnie dla Igora

[Gość: zbalansowany]

....jako ze on lubi doglebne analizy.



Global: Cracked Facade

Stephen Roach (New York)






The delicate equilibrium in world financial markets may be starting to
unravel. The dollar has broken out of its recent range, credit spreads are
widening, equities are sagging, and riskless sovereign bonds are well bid.
The message is worrisome: For an unbalanced and increasingly vulnerable
world economy, the unrelenting rise of oil prices spells mounting risks of
global recession in 2005. Financial markets are only just beginning to
comprehend this possibility.

There are lots of moving parts to this story. But the one that intrigues
me the most right now is the dollar - down 3% against the euro and nearly 4%
against the yen in the past two-and-a-half weeks. In my view, this move in
the dollar is a "drop in the bucket" for a US economy with a 5.7% current
account deficit that could easily climb in the 6.5% to 7.0% zone in the next
year. The problem, of course, is that my currency view has been a lonely
one over the past nine months. The Teflon-like greenback has begun to
reverse some the depreciation of the previous couple of years - unwinding
about three percentage points of the 13% real trade-weighted decline that
had occurred since early 2002. But in recent weeks, I have felt less
lonely, as the official community - both in the US and around the world -
has come out in the open in expressing concerns about America's gaping twin
deficits and what they mean for the dollar. Fedspeak has been especially
focused on this issue, with at least five Federal Reserve governors and
regional bank presidents weighing in on this key risk. I don't believe in
conspiracy theories, but I don't think this collective expression of concern
is an accident.

A weaker dollar has long been the centerpiece of my global rebalancing
framework. Macro deals best with global imbalances by changing the world's
relative price structure. With the dollar the world's most important
relative price, depreciation is a perfectly natural way for the global
economy to restore some semblance of equilibrium. But don't expect the
world to turn on a dime in response to currency changes. In fact, it has
become increasingly clear over the past decade that trade flows and
inflation are a good deal less sensitive to currency fluctuations than was
the case earlier. In my view, a weaker dollar would, instead, be more of a
signaling mechanism - sparking a back-up in US real interest rates as
foreign creditors demand compensation for taking currency risk. For an
overly-indebted US economy, higher real interest rates would impair
credit-sensitive domestic demand, boost national saving, and reduce
America's claim on external saving. These are the characteristics of a
classic current-account adjustment.

Yet the world has resisted this adjustment. That's been especially the
case in Asia. Lacking in support from domestic demand, the Asian currency
bloc has basically refused to participate in the dollar's depreciation,
putting a disproportionate share of the burden on the euro. Since the
dollar's peak in early 2002, the trade-weighted euro has risen about 20% (in
real terms), whereas the trade-weighted yen - a good proxy for Asian
currencies - has been basically unchanged. I have referred to the Asian
currency zone increasingly as a renminbi bloc, underscoring the key role
that China's currency peg plays in inhibiting other Asian economies from
suffering any competitive disadvantage with the region's super-competitive
trading powerhouse. Recent warnings of renewed currency intervention by
Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki underscore Asia's renewed conviction to
resist currency-induced global rebalancing.

The authorities are now swimming upstream. Monthly data from the US
Treasury reveal a sharp deceleration of foreign demand for
dollar-denominated assets - $61 billion average net purchases in July and
August versus a $76 billion average in the prior 10 months. This
deceleration is worrisome for two reasons - the first being it has occurred
against a backdrop of a dramatic widening of America's current account
deficit, which went from 4.5% in late 2003 to 5.7% in mid-2004. Second,
private investors have already turned skittish on the dollar, forcing non-US
policymakers to up the ante in filling the void. Over the 12 months ending
August 2004, fully 33% of net foreign purchases of long-term US securities
have come from the official sector - more than double the 15% share of the
prior 12 months and over four times the portion over the 2000-02 period.
With private inflows into dollars now going the other way at just the time
when America's external financing needs are exploding, extraordinary
pressure is being put on Asian authorities to resist the inevitable.

In the end, this is a losing game. Intervention cannot neutralize the
deadweight of America's massive current-account deficit. That's the message
to take from the recent fragility of the strong dollar. For what it's
worth, I suspect that the dollar's slide will accelerate sharply in the
aftermath of the US presidential election - probably more so in the event of
a Kerry victory than would be the case in a Bush win. Senator Kerry's focus
on trade and jobs puts him more in the camp of embracing market-based
resolutions to global imbalances. In either case, however, the dollar's
coming depreciation will pose a great challenge for an unbalanced global
economy. The flip side of a weaker dollar spells currency appreciation
elsewhere - forcing the export-led economies of Asia and Europe to embrace
the reforms long needed to unshackle domestic demand. If Asia continues to
resist, it faces a growing protectionist threat from both Europe and the
United States. I remain convinced that the world's unprecedented external
pressures will be vented in one way or another - through markets or
politics, or some combination of both.

Meanwhile, the confluence of a number of other powerful forces is putting
added pressure on an unbalanced global economy. Three such developments
are at the top of my list. First, oil prices have now averaged in excess of
$50 (WTI-basis) for six weeks - satisfying about half the three-month
duration criteria that I believe would qualify as a full-blown oil shock.
So far, the real side of the global economy has held up reasonably well in
the face of this price spike, buying into the long-standing consensus
forecast of a sharp and imminent reversal of oil prices. The longer that
forecast turns out to wrong, the greater the threat to a complacent world.
For this reason, alone, I continue to place a 40% probability on a global
recession in 2005.

Second, the China slowdown remains the big gorilla in this unbalanced world.
The latest batch of Chinese data point to further, albeit uneven,
deceleration in this overheated economy. The September figures on
industrial output (+16.2%) and fixed investment (+27.7%) were all a bit
stronger than those in August but significantly below the peak rates of
comparison earlier this year - 19.4% for industrial production and 43% for
investment. The big news, in my view, was a stunning deceleration in
Chinese import growth - 22% in September versus a 36% increase in August and
50% peak growth rates earlier this year. This, together with a further
slowdown in bank lending, points to the early signs of a long-awaited
cooling off of Chinese domestic demand. Data elsewhere from China-centric
Asia now corroborate this development - underscored by renewed cyclical
weakening in Korea and recent slippage in Japanese export growth. China has
a long way to go on the inevitable journey to a soft landing. That will
require more policy restraint and entail increased transmission of the China
slowdown to its trading partners and commodity markets,

Troszke o zlocie, ropie i dolarze

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Gold Nears 16-Year Highs
By Veronica Brown
10-25-4

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold was within reach of its highest level in nearly 16
years on Monday, fired by a resurgent euro and inflationary fears fanned by sky-
high oil prices, dealers and analysts said.

"I don't think we've seen anything yet," Ross Norman of TheBullionDesk.com told
Reuters in a telephone interview.

"With the euro where it is, oil where it is and tension ahead of the U.S.
election I think we could see another attempt at $430.50 and it might just poke
through," he added.

Bullion, which hit a 15-year peak on January 6 at $430.50, has traded steadily
higher this year, extending a bull cycle that has stretched out since 2001 when
prices fell towards $250.

Having struck a fresh six-month peak earlier on Monday at $430.20 per ounce,
dealers said fund buyers would try and push for the January 6 peak and beyond
to levels last seen in 1988, emboldened by a rampant euro making the metal more
attractive.

The market's upswing has been influenced by a weaker dollar, geo-political
uncertainty, producers buying back previously sold forward production and sky-
high oil prices fanning inflationary worries.

"Oil is playing a part but the dollar is the big mover in gold," Peter
Hillyard, head of European metal sales at ANZ Bank, told Reuters. He spoke
after benchmark U.S. light crude set a fresh peak of $55.67 a barrel.

"The market believes $430-plus (for gold) will be penetrated and, depending on
who you talk to, there are people saying $500. I think that's a little
overdone," he added.

The euro rose on Monday to within once cent of record highs against the U.S.
dollar hit in February.

Record oil prices and worries about the widening U.S. current account deficit
have hit the dollar

A co do ropy to najwiecej na wzroscie cen

[Gość: jarek-Zyd ne telus]

zarabiaja wlasnie firmy amerykanskie, a ze ich dochod USa nie widzi to juz inna
sprawa. A ile Arabow w Saudi Arabskiej , Persow w Iranie maja cos z tej ropy...

[Gość: spekulant]

Wszyscy tu wspominaja o wielkim amerykanskim deficycie handlowym, ktory wynosi
ok.25 000 dolarow na glowe mieszkanca.
Jednak jest to niczym, w porownaniu z zadluzeniem amerykanow tzw. wewnetrznym
zadluzeniem.
Zadluzenie to wynosi prawie 500 000 dolarow na kazda rodzine amerykanska.
Jest to zadluzenie kazdej rodziny a konto przyszlych zobowiazan na emerytow
(social security) i ubezpieczen medycznych tzw. medicare.
Lecz, nie powinismy sie tym za bardzo martwic.
Co kazdy rzad robi w takiej sytuacji? hahahaha drukuje pieniazki
CZYLI - INFLACJA!!!!!!!!!!!

I sprzedaje bezwartosciowe zielone papiry

[Gość: jarek-Zyd ne telus]

za uslugi, towary glupkom na calym Swiecie, to sie nazywa sprytnosc.

ten krach juz nastapil

[zebro.adama]

Cala gospodarka USA jedzie na zlodziejstwie. Imperium juz padlo.

A ty z tego powody staniesz sie bogatszy?

[Gość: .]

Za kilka lat zacznie coraz bardziej brakowac ropy

[quickly]

...pierwsze objawy braku ropy sa juz widoczne.

Kto moze mi powiedziec ile za rok bedziemy placic za litr bezolowiowej???

(Jedno jest pewne. Nikt nie jest niczego teraz pewien...)

Jak cena barylki przekroczy $80 to bedzie sie

[Gość: igor]

oplacac zastapienie ropy innymi paliwami. Tak twierdza specjalisci i mam
nadzieje, ze maja racje. Przejscie na alhohol moze wreszcie uwolni USA od walki
o rope dla wszystkich. Kukurydza z Iowa wystarczy do zaspokojenia potrzeb
kraju. W koncu z Iraku przychodzilo tylko 2,5% amerykanskich dostaw. Europa i
Japonia kupowaly tam 90% wydobycia.

[Gość: Rodak]

Dlaczego zastepowac rope innymi paliwami?

Sa przeciez takie zrodla energii, ktorych uzycie nie powoduje zanieczyszczen,
smrodu spalin, ktore staja sie coraz wiekszym problemem.

Odwiedz sobie jakies duze miasto (np. Mexico City) i pooddychaj tymi wyziewami,
jakie tam wytwarzaja piekne nowoczesne oraz stare auta.
Wowczas dopiero doceniesz zycie z dala od miejskich molochow.

Do duzego miasta mam 200 mil. Do malego - mieszkam

[Gość: igor]

Doceniam po kazdej wizycie w Warszawie, Monachium, Paryzu i Rostowie. W Meksyku
nie bylem i nie planuje. Meksykanczycy kosza tu trawe, buduja ploty i zrywaja
owoce i warzywa - pracowity narodek. To mi wystarczy jesli chodzi o kontakt z
Latynosami. O! Zapomnialem, na Florydzie ich tez widze ale ja spedzam wakacje
zimowe w Orlando a nie w Miami to niezbyt wielu. Oczywiscie to sa glownie
Kubanczycy.

Juz teraz energia wietrzna stala sie oplacalna.

[Gość: jarek-Zyd ne telus]

Droga Ropa jest Swaiata ratunkiem, po Krysysie w roku 1973, zachod zrobil
olbrzymiskok naprzud a panstwa bliskowschodnie pelne roopy tam zostali gdzie
byli i teraz sie na zachod pchaja, czy to nie jest dziwne.Dziekujac 1973
Kommunizm upadl tak jak dziekujac 2003 upadnie radykalny islam.

[Gość: Rodak]

USA ma potezny deficyt budzetowy od bardzo wielu lat.
Jest jednak mocarstwem, ktore nie ma obecnie zadnego konkurenta.
Kiedys moze Chiny mu zagroza.
Nie tylko zreszta militarnie.
W Chinach bowiem niemal wszystko sie produkuje.

Planujesz zmienic zrodlo energi?

[Gość: Ropa w nosie]

Planujesz zmienic zrodlo energi,zastapic rope

[Gość: Ropa w nosie]

Przestudiuj najpierw zawartosc energetyczna w roznych paliwach wedlug mojego
zestawu

Zawartosc energi



Paliwo fosilne kWh/m3 kWh/ton


Olej 1 9 960 11 680
Olej palny 5 10 720 11 510
Diesel MK1 och MK2 9 772 11 460
Diesel MK3 9 952 11 670
Bensin 8 720
nafta 9 540
Metanol 4 330
Fossilgas (Naturgas) 10,8 14 430
Gasol 12 820
Wegiel 6 060 7 560
Koks 3 500 7 800

Förnybara bränslen kWh/m3
kWh/ton

Biogas 9,5
Etanol 5 890 7 450
Hushållsavfall 2 900
Grot (45% fukthalt) 440 2 640
Bränsleflis (45% fukthalt) 810 2 310
Torrflis (12% fukthal) 4 610
Barkflis (55% fukthalt) 2 000
Frästorv (50% fukthalt) 670 2 640
Stycketorv (40% fukthalt) 1 030 3 340
Träpellets (11% fukthalt) 3 030 4 670
Träbriketter (11% fukthalt) 2 800 4 670
Ved (25% fukthalt) 1 280 3 840
Ved (30% fukthalt, fast mått) 2 070
Ved (50% fukthalt, fast mått) 1 900

Jak widzisz metanolu trzeba 2 razy tyle niz oleju palnego do otrzymania tej
samej ilosci energi. Do wyprodukowania metanolu zuzywa sie totalnie 30 %
energi, tez trzeba odliczyc. Nie wliczane sa efekty srodowiskowe

Zydzi doprowadzą do katastrofy USA

[Gość: Grace]

Żydowski uścisk na gospodarce, polityce i finansach USA jest bez precedensu. W
swojej historii Żydzi doprowadzali do upadku i byli wyganiani z Egiptu, Persji,
Hiszpanii, Francji, Niemiec, Rosji. Teraz mieszają w USA. Godziny Ameryki są
policzone.

[Gość: olej]

A co zrobia, wypija olej i stanie USA?

Real estate tez w tarapatach

[Gość: zbalansowany]

The Gonzales family of Phoenix walks into their new rental home in
Henderson's Anthem master-planned community. Denver-area real estate
investor Ross King bought the home for $498,000 in September, less than two
weeks before Pulte Homes lowered the price tag on similar models to
$382,990.
Photo by HYPERLINK
"www.reviewjournal.com/webextras/gallery/gurzinski/gurzinski.html"Joh
n Gurzinski.



The region's second largest home builder, Pulte Homes, has cut its new home
prices by 5 percent to 25 percent in recent days, reversing a trend of
ballooning home prices and leaving at least one Denver-based real estate
investor threatening legal action.

Pulte executives announced the cuts to counter a dramatic decline in foot
traffic, which was off by as much as 35 percent at some of its 18 Las Vegas
Valley subdivisions.

Company executives believe the decline is the result of inflated housing
prices that have in part been driven by real estate investors seeking a
healthy return on their money.

New home prices in the valley appreciated by 35 percent during the first
eight months of this year, according to Home Builders Research. Over the
past decade, the median price of a valley home has more than doubled while
median household income has increased just 22 percent.

The median price of a new valley home was $259,700 in August; the price for
an existing home was $250,000, according to Home Builders Research.

"I think we hit a ceiling at a certain price point, and the buyer just
wasn't willing to pay. It is simple economics between supply and demand,"
said Sheryl Palmer, Nevada area president for Pulte Homes.

Other builders could follow suit. Richmond American homes recently has
lowered prices in some subdivisions while raising them in others, noted
Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research.

Denver-area resident Ross King is furious about the Pulte Homes price cuts,
which came less than two weeks after he closed on a 1,900-square-foot home
in Henderson's Anthem master-planned community. King paid $498,000 for the
house, which he bought as an investment. The same model now lists for
$382,990 after costing as much as $516,990 in June.

King, a telecommunications consultant who earns in the mid-six figures
annually, said he understands markets rise and fall. But he thinks he was
the target of a hard sell by a Pulte Del Webb sales staff he believes was
hoping to profit from the higher price tag.

"I was told that if I didn't close (on Sept. 24) I could be jeopardizing my
$18,000 down payment and that per Pulte's agreement they would fine me
several hundred dollars a day thereafter," said King, who has spoken with a
lawyer about the episode.

Pulte's Palmer said she was unfamiliar with King's transaction but was
willing to investigate his claims, although she noted that her sales staff
did not learn of the price reductions until Saturday.

"I understand his frustration," Palmer said of King, "but we have been
monitoring the situation really over the last few weeks, and then over the
last few days made the business decision to adjust our pricing."

Executives of Pulte Homes believe the company will build 3,500 houses in the
valley this year, trailing only market leader KB Homes. But a major increase
in the number of resale homes on the market

Nikt nie pragnie kryzysu, ale....

[Gość: zbalansowany]

"money.cnn.com/2004/10/04/commentary/breakingviews/man_utd/index.htm"
A Yank to buy Manchester United?

This time around, some of those petro-dollars may be turning into
petro-euros. Indeed, market observers think that diversification of the $100
billion of Russian currency reserves lies behind the recent dollar weakness.


The trade position of the U.S. is a lot worse than they were in 1992, when
the currency was at its 20-year low of $1.42 against the basket of euro
currencies. Even modest selling by oil exporters would be enough to bring
the dollar below that level.

_____

Breakingviews is Europe's leading financial commentary and analysis service.
Its team of financial journalists comments on the most important financial
stories of the day, as they break. HYPERLINK \l "TOP"Top of page

To przestaje byc smieszne

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Russia to price oil in euros in snub to US
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels (Filed: 10/10/2003)


Russia is to start pricing its huge oil and gas exports in euros instead of
dollars as part of a stragetic shift to forge closer ties with the European
Union.

The Russian central bank has been amassing euros since early 2002,
increasing the euro share of its $65 billion (£40 billion) foreign reserves
from 10pc to more than 25pc, according to the finance ministry.

The move has set off a chain reaction in the private sector, leading to a
fourfold increase in euro deposits in Russian banks this year and sending
Russian citizens scrambling to change their stashes of greenbacks into euro
notes.

German officials said Chancellor Gerhard Schroder secured agreement for the
change-over on oil pricing from Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, while on
a trip to Russia this week.


HYPERLINK
"www.money.telegraph.co.uk/money/graphics/2003/10/10/cnoil10.jpg"

Moscow: Middle East may follow lead of Russia's changeover to oil pricing in
Euro

The two leaders have forged a close personal bond and are both keen to check
American economic and diplomatic power.

Mr Putin was coy about German media reports on the deal yesterday but
acknowledged that Russia was exploring the idea. "We do not rule out that it
is possible. That would be interesting for our European partners," he said.

A switch to euro invoicing would not affect the long-term price of oil but
it could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and have a
powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar is already
under intense pressure. Russia boasts the world's biggest natural gas
reserves and is the number two oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

Yesterday the dollar recovered slightly against the yen and euro, but the
IMF and the European Central Bank both warn that America's ballooning
current account deficit, now over 5pc of GDP, will lead to further declines.

Oil is seen as so central to the global power structure that the choice of
currency used for pricing has acquired almost totemic significance. The
switch from pounds to dollars after the Second World War has come to
symbolise sterling's demise as a world reserve currency.

If the dollar were ever displaced by the euro, it would lose the enormous
freedom it now enjoys in running macro-economic policy. Washington would
also forfeit the privilege of exchanging dollar notes for imports, worth an
estimated 0.5pc of GDP.

Maxim Shein, from BrokerKreditService in Moscow, said the switch to euros
makes sense for Russia since it supplies half of Europe's energy needs. But
the move is also part of a global realignment stemming from the Iraq war,
which threw Russia, Germany and France together into a new Triple Entente.

"Abandoning the dollar is tantamount to a curtsey to the EU," he said. For
now, IMF figures show the dollar remains king, accounting for 68pc of
foreign reserves worldwide compared with 13pc for the euro.

a zaczyna byc straszne

[Gość: zbalansowany]

www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FJ14Dj01.html

Mysle ze Bush ma przechlapane

[Gość: zbalansowany]

Putin - Why Not Price
Oil In Euros?
By Never Surrender
Rumor Mill News
10-27-4

President Vladimir Putin said Thursday Russia could switch its trade in oil
from dollars to euros, a move that could have far-reaching repercussions for
the global balance of power