chimek
25.12.02, 07:19
Poczytajcie sobie co mysla Finowie o Unii Europejskiej, Rosji oraz wlasnym
bezpieczenstwie. To wazna lekcja - za darmo - dla nas Polakow. Lekcja od
narodu, ktory obronil swoja niepodleglosc w 1939/40. Narodu, ktory dalej nie
lekcewazy swojego polozenia geograficznego. W skrocie: Finowie widza wlasne
bezpieczenstwo w sile armii finskiej oraz swoim uczestnictwie w UE.
5. THE RELEVANCE OF THE WINTER WAR TODAY
The key question for Finland today is to what extent the lessons of the
Second World War still are relevant. The collapse of the USSR and the
evolution of technology have created an entirely new world. On the other hand
Finland remains neighbour with a massive Russia. Nonetheless a number of
significant changes have emerged.
In the first place the beneficial legacy of the Winter War, in terms of
independence, self-confidence and credibility remain largely unchanged.
However on the military and security-political levels a number of factors are
radically different.
5.1. Military Changes
On the military level two factors stand out. In the first place the advent of
nuclear weapons provides a means of intimidation and mass destruction which
did not exist in 1939. This provides a Russian leadership so inclined with a
devastating means of coercion. This factor is all the more alarming today,
when the nuclear card is becoming the Russian Federation's only remaining
claim to international authority.
On the other hand however advances in conventional military technology mean
that Finland is no longer as physically isolated as she was in the past. It
is now possible for the United States and her allies to deploy massive
military force across the globe in a matter of days. This, along with
Finland's conscious preparations, means that Finland is no longer militarily
isolated as she was in the past. Though she has no formal alliance
guarantees, it is now physically possible to receive military assistance in a
short time. Especially in those fields where Finland would be most in need of
support, such as strategic intelligence, air defence and long-range
firepower. Whethere or not such support would be forthcoming is another
matter however.
5.2. Political Changes
On the political changes Finland's position has been vastly improved by two
developments. The first is of course the collapse of the Soviet Union, which
has transformed Europe and the world. In Finland's case it means that her
weakened neighbour has lost it's stranglehold over Finland. Thus for the
first time in fifty years Finland is freed from the heavy political, military
and ideological pressure from the east.
This has freed Finland from the straitjacket of fear, permitting her to
pursue a foreign policy more directly in line with her national inclinations.
Two key milestones mark this transformation. First of all the cancellation of
the 'Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance Treaty' with the USSR in
November 1991. This cut Finland's formal ties to the USSR. Secondly the
application (in 1992) and membership in the European Union in January 1995.
While the EU provides no military security guarantees for Finland, it
nonetheless has fundamentally changed Finland's international position. With
EU membership Finland is - for the first time in fifty years - no longer
alone next to her neighbour. Instead she is formally integrated in the
western European community. Secondly, on a deeper domestic social level, it
permits and forces Finland to take part in this community. This is gradually
reintroducing Finland's population to those communities in which their
historical civilizational roots lies, but from which Finland was largely cut
off during the Cold War. In the words of Risto Penttilä: "Finland has come
home, but she is not used to being at home." However after five years of EU
membership familiarity with home is becoming all the more apparent in Finland.
5.3. Security-Political Changes
Finally however the question remains how much this affects Finland's
fundamental geopolitical environment - Paasikivi's premise. Here there are no
clear answers. The key premises have changed only partly.
In terms of values, Finland's status as a western state has been confirmed
and is being reinforced daily by her increasing integration westwards. On the
other hand Russia's future stance remains extremely unclear, though it seems
unlikely that she will transform into a functioning, prosperous and stable
'western' democracy anytime soon. Hence here the civilizational distinction
remains deep.
Secondly, in terms of geography the situation is also partly changed.
Finland's intimate proximity to the Russian Federation remains, with over
1,200 km of common land frontier and the immediate vicinity of Russia's
second most important city, St. Petersburg. On the other hand Finland's
isolation next to Russia is being erased by technology. Today Finland is
directly linked to the west through air travel and the internet, to mention
but a few elements, with profound social, economic and political
consequences. Though still a neighbour of Russia, Finland is no longer
isolated. This completely alters Finland's situation under normal
international conditions. However whether this would translate into concrete
military assistance if such was needed remains unsure. Thus the question of
how much Finland still needs to be militarily self-sufficient remains open.
Thirdly the imbalance of power between Finland and Russia has also partly
changed. Finland is no longer as small as she was in the Cold War. Today
Finland's total GNP is one third of the official GNP of Russia. At the same
time Russia is crumbling, and the ability to excert any pressure against
Finland under normal conditions is remote. Ideologically, economically and
politically Russia is in ruins and discredited. What remains is the ability
to coerce by threatening massive damage. Currently this is not on, but cannot
be excluded in the future.
Finally Finland also needs to ask herself if she needs to take a long-term
perspective, to the point in the future when Russia rises from the ashes as
she has done in the past. Here Finland current policy appears optimal
however. To seize the current opportunity to integrate as far westwards as
possible, while avoiding unnecessary provocation of her historical neighbour
and maintaining the channels of communication open. However in an
increasingly chaotic Russia, this may be become more difficult.
Main
1. The basic national legacy of the winter war
2. Lessons of military strategy
3. Lessons of military operations
4. Security political lessons
5. The relevance of the winter war today
The Winter War picture gallery
Helsinki Aflame
Virtual Finland
