Irak (B) - Matka Wojen...

[Gość: Mosze]

www.debka.com/article_print.php?aid=522
Saddam Hussein in Iraq – More than a Taped Voice

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly Updated by DEBKAfile

July 12, 2003, 6:12 PM (GMT+02:00)



The US troop withdrawal from the Iraqi town of Falluja only 50 km west of
Baghdad on Friday, July 1, is the first major American military retreat since
going to war against Iraq on March 18, 2003. It comes amid spiraling attacks
on US troops by “unidentified” snipers and ambushers and follows what sounds
like the voice of Saddam Hussein announcing his return to Iraq on two audio-
tapes and calling Iraqis out to fight the Americans.

While American sources present the pullback as limited to Falluja police
station, DEBKAfile’s military sources report it is more extensive. In effect,
US Falluja unit is in the process of redeploying outside the town. This is
one surface symptom, but not the only one, that American forces and elements
loyal to Saddam Hussein are building up to a significant military clash.
Territorial positions are taking shape - as will be seen on the DEBKAfile
Special map attached to this article.

To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE .

DEBKA-Net-Weekly No. 116 describes the forces mustered by Saddam Hussein as
consisting of elements of the Special Republican Guards, Fedayeen Saddam
suicides, Baath militiamen and thousands of Syrian fighters arriving in a
constant stream. It is more than probable that Saddam and his two sons are
very much present in underground fortresses built after the 1991 Gulf War and
conducting the current campaign against US troops in person, assisted by
officers who commanded the Special Republican Guards Divisions in the March-
April War.

These assaults are reciprocal. US forces are initiating military action too
under their new commander, US Army General John Abizaid, who took over from
Gen. Tommy Franks on July 7. Such forays are mostly unreported. Our military
experts judge the clashes flaring with increasing frequency in the last few
days in Baghdad, the towns of Balad, Ramadi and Falluja to the north and
northwest, and the Al Qaim region on the Syrian border, to be probes in which
both sides are testing the mettle of the opposition in advance of the main
action.

The 10 to 15 daily attacks mounted against US troops every day by the Iraqi
resistance attests impressively to military professionalism. Their objectives
are clear: To dampen American troop morale by building up the casualty score
and, more importantly, to repel American military incursions into an enclave
beneath whose surface Saddam and his allies lurk in their underground
fortress cities.

This enclave ranges from the city of Samarra, about 70 miles (110 km)
northwest of Baghdad to a point some 35 miles (55 km) south of Tikrit. It is
separated from the Falluja-Ramadi “probing” arena by about 75 miles (120
miles). US troops have begun advancing on this enclave and reached as far as
Balad, only 23 miles (37 kilometers) north of Samarra. Saddam’s presence in
this enclave means that his forces control a slice of central Iraq that is
100-110 mile (160-175 km) long and 60-70 mile (96 and 112 km) wide and
delimited by Lake Tharthar in central-western Iraq and the Tigris River in
the east. Our military sources report that inside this sweep of territory,
American military strength is sparse save for a handful of small special
forces units.

Intelligence sources tell DEBKA-Net-Weekly that these underground facilities
were only recently been populated by skeleton command and operational centers
representing all of the six Republican Guards divisions that took part in the
war – al-Nida, Nebuchadnezzar, Hamurabi, al-Medina, Adnan and Baghdad –
together with Fedayeen Saddam and Baathist militia contingents. Their
officers initially stayed at home with their families, waiting to see which
way the wind blew under the US administration before declaring their
military, political, national or religious allegiances. By early June, US
civil administrator Paul Bremer, who took over in Baghdad in mid-May, had
made it clear he had no intention of mobilizing Saddam’s troops to the new
Iraqi army or handing them paychecks. Then came the rumor that spread across
Iraq that Saddam and sons were back, rebuilding the Iraqi army and offering
double the salaries they earned before the war. Thousands began wending their
way toward his Samarra enclave.

A senior Western intelligence source familiar with the Iraq scene confided to
DEBKA-Net-Weekly this week: “I don’t want to criticize ambassador Bremer’s
management,” he said. “It essentially represents policy dictated from
Washington and is based on a rule set in concrete: The US administration may
not recruit ex-soldiers who belonged to any of Saddam’s elite units for
military and civil administration posts. The effect of those restrictions,”
the source pointed out, “was to provide the former Iraqi ruler with a
potential reserve force of up to one million trained and disaffected
combatants who might be ready to fight for his comeback. Half are ex-army
men, half members of the ruling Baath party which Bremer dissolved.”

It is estimated that between 12,000 and 14,000 men have begun drawing
salaries against Saddam’s account. “Since the underground complexes contain
vast amounts of military equipment and munitions – enough to sustain months
of fighting – it must be admitted that some of the elite units we thought had
scattered may be under arms again,” said the source.

Saturday, the US administration was working hard to launch a 25-member
governing council for its first meeting on Sunday, July 13, the first Iraqi
executive body in government in Baghdad since the overthrow of the Baath
regime. Representatives of Iraq’s main seven political groups and
independents will be tasked with writing a constitution and organizing
elections.

DEBKAfile’s analysts suggest that the US initiative to start handing over
power to Iraqis may have come too late now that the deposed ruler appears to
be setting up a military presence in the heart of the country. Some of the
newly appointed counselors, while cooperating with the Americans, may also in
secret be taking care to cover their backs - just in case Saddam Hussein ever
comes back.

DEBKAfile will continue its examination of the current situation in Iraq and
the direction it is taking in a second article Sunday night.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--

Copyright 2003 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.