2001, 2002 - us w recesji

[stoje_i_patrze]

Kiedyś o tym pisałem i powołwałem się nawet na takie dane ale dla przypomnienia.
www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/jm103108image001_5F00_3.gif
wykres pokazue że amerykanie bez tych domow jako ATM czyli Mortage equity
Withdrawals w 2001 2002 byłi by w recesji. dodam ze to sie juz teraz to nie
uda bo ceny mieszkan spadaja.

[stoje_i_patrze]

A tutaj zobaczcie jak spada MEW


[img=http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/7268/jm103108image0023pj6.gif]

to jest katastrofa:
img216.imageshack.us/my.php?image=jm103108image0023pj6.gif

[stoje_i_patrze]

te i tamte dane z ostatniego darmowego newslettera Johna Mouldin:
www.frontlinethoughts.com/index.asp

[stoje_i_patrze]

Dodam do teg odiwe rzeczy z newslettera:

gdyby nie stimulus packege w Q2 200 to juz wtedy us była by w recesji. Tak wiec
podtrzymali trupa.
Obecnie amerykanie ratują się kartami kredytowymi, fragment:
So, did American consumers cut back on borrowing? Not if they had a credit card!
Total loans from commercial banks to consumers grew by $89 billion for the 12
months ending in September. $61 billion of that was credit card debt, and the
amount in recent weeks has exploded. Let's look at this analysis from my
favorite slicer and dicer of numbers, data-wizard Greg Weldon
(www.weldononline.com). Going with a Halloween theme:

"FAR MORE 'telling' is the LOPSIDED degree to which Credit Card balance growth
is 'contributing' to total growth in Consumer Loans, a sign of intensifying
'stress' on consumers, amid accelerating job loss, home price deflation, and
equity-market paper wealth devaluation.

"Even the raging Frankenstein stops to note the shockingly UGLY data details:

Commercial Banks, Outstanding Credit Card Balances ... SOARED by an eye-opening
+ $7.1 billion in the WEEK ending October 15th, representing a +1.9% single-week
rate of expansion ... or ... nearly ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT annualized (+98.4%).

"Even more 'telling' is the 'read' acquired by contemplating the following pair
of data FACTS:

* Credit Card Loans, 10 months Sep07-thru-Jul-08 ... up + $29.1 billion

* Credit Card Loans, 10 weeks Aug-08-to-mid-Oct-08 ... up + $32.3 billion

"In other words, Commercial Bank 'exposure' via the total amount of Credit Card
'loans' outstanding has risen MORE in the last ten WEEKS, than it did in the
previous ten MONTHS COMBINED !!!

"Moreover, the growth in the last ten-weeks, $32.3 billion, or about $600
million per 'shopping day' since the beginning of August ... represents nominal
growth of + 9.3% ... or ... + 48.3% annualized over the last ten weeks.

"According to American Express, delinquencies on credit payments rose to 4.1% of
all credit outstanding in the 3Q, up from 2.5% in 3Q of 2007, with Bank of
America's rate rising even more steeply, to 5.9% in the quarter.

"Moreover, the 'pool' of loans deemed 'uncollectable' rose to a high 6.7% in the
3Q, soaring from 3.6% last September."[Emphasis mine.]

What consumer spending there is has been fueled in part by credit card. Greg
notes this uncomfortable piece of data: the second largest "merchant-vendor" for
credit card use is now McDonalds. This suggests that many consumers are in
serious distress when they need to get their $4 Big Mac and fries with a credit
card.

This is the problem facing the economy next year. Credit card growth like we
have seen in the last few months has never been sustained at such a level, and
is unlikely to be this time either. This is especially true as credit card
delinquencies have been rising, as noted above.

The next administration is going to be faced with a retrenching consumer, which
will likely push the economy even deeper into recession. This will of course
result in higher unemployment. In the first year of the next president's term,
he is likely to see another one million people lose their jobs, pushing
unemployment to almost 8%.

Peter Bernstein, in his regular letter, notes the rising levels of the DURATION
of unemployment. It is now over 9 months, close to 38 weeks. As the recession
deepens, this means a lot of people will stop receiving unemployment benefits.
Oh, and of course, unemployment is not good for consumer spending. And it will
put even more pressure on homeowners behind on their mortgages. And unemployed
people do not pay taxes, widening the deficit.

If you thought the recovery under Bush was the "jobless recovery," wait until
you see the next version without the benefit of profligate consumer borrowing
and spending."