2009

06.01.09, 09:42
Witam wszystkich w Nowym Roku i życzę wszystkiego najlepszego.

Oto prognozy gościa z którym się zgadzam:

tinyurl.com/GaryShilling2009
s&p 500 will go to 600
home prices will decline by another 20%
consumer goods companies will go down now
Buy dollar, Corp and Muni bonds
    • ewa9000 Re: 2009 06.01.09, 13:04
      W 2007 roku wszyscy fachowcy prześcigali się w opowiadaniach jak
      dobrze ma się gospodarka światowa i nie było widac końca , dokąd
      indeksy będa rosły. Teraz prześcigają się , jak nisko będzie
      spadać . Garry ma sporo racji , tak jak rację mieli optymiści
      rocznik 2007. Ta zgodność mnie trochę zaczyna niepokoić smile Czemu
      właściwie należałoby kupowac Corp bonds ? Tak dla adrenaliny jakby
      przypadkiem jakiś Corp chciał zbankrutować ?
      • dorota_3 Re: 2009 06.01.09, 14:01
        Co do corporate bonds to obserwatorów chyba rajcuje ich wysokie
        oprocentowanie (spready są w tej chwili niebotyczne, z oczywistych
        powodów, mają się zawężać). Zapominają troszkę, że to oprocentowanie
        jest wysokie RELATYWNIE - w stosunku do brutalnie zaniżonych (też z
        oczywistych powodów) stóp na Treasuries.
        Co do municypalnych - widziałam takie wykresy, że długoterminowo są
        jednocześnie (!) bardziej bezpieczne i bardziej zyskowne od innych
        kategorii. Jak taki wykres zrobili, nie wiem, bo w przyrodzie takie
        coś nie powinno występować smile
        Tak że watch your step, stoje_i_patrze.
        • vice_versa Re: 2009 + municipal insolvency 06.01.09, 17:07
          Corporate bonds to totalna pomyłka!
          Nie ma powodu umacniania się dolara i jednoczesnej rentowności
          bondów. Pożyczanie, nawet na wysoki % upadającym spółkom, i liczenie
          że uda się z nich wyskoczyć, to dla mnie jest to excessive risk i
          stąd mamy excessive premium na spreadzie.

          Fundamentalnie, nie ma różnicy między Corp.Bonds a akcjami. Brak
          pieniądza na rynku spowoduje defalt na obu rynkach, wysokie % dobrze
          będą wyglądać jedynie w bilansach, można ich nigdy nie dostać.

          Municypalne? Hmm... Albo bailouty, albo upadłości z Chapter 9.
          Właściwe pytanie to co się dzieje z bondami przy Chapter 9.
          Oczyszczenie bilansów z długów będzie trwać, a municypia realnie
          upaść nie upadną.

          >Jak taki wykres zrobili, nie wiem, bo w przyrodzie takie
          > coś nie powinno występować smile

          Lender of last resort? One way or another?
          How does Chapter 9 work?

          Spiotto: Chapter 9 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, the
          Adjustments of Debt of a Municipality, is philosophically designed
          to give municipal entities a fresh start. In order to file for
          bankruptcy, a municipality has to establish to the satisfaction of
          the Bankruptcy Court that, among other things, the municipality has
          become insolvent.

          While insolvency is a balance sheet test for corporate bankruptcy
          purposes, for Chapter 9 purposes, insolvency is a question of
          whether the Debtor is able to pay its obligations. Municipal
          bankruptcy effects debt adjustment, not debt elimination.

          To dlatego długoterminowo są bezpieczne, whatever adjustment means smile

          Tu mamy więcej w temacie:
          www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2008/12/29/ten-us-municipal-bankruptcies-expected-in-2009/
          globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/massive-surge-in-municipal-bankruptcies.html

          To jest niezłe:

          "State and local public employees comprise approximately 12 percent
          of the U.S. workforce and have an estimated $800 billion or more of
          unfunded pension liabilities (not counting other post-employment
          benefits). By comparison, employees in the private or corporate
          sector make up about 78 percent of the U.S. workforce with an
          estimated $450 billion of unfunded liabilities."
      • majkelos0 Re: 2009 06.01.09, 17:03
        tu się zupełnie nie zgadzam. jeśli ktoś się ściga, to raczej w
        prognozach, że bessa już się skończyła i czeka nas teraz pół roku
        wzrostu, o dołkach raczej nikt nie wspomina, wielu odgwizdało kryzys
        jako zakończony
    • stoje_i_patrze Mish 2009 06.01.09, 19:04
      2008 i krotki opis co bedzie w 2009
      globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/reflections-on-2008-themes-for-2009.html
      (tylko 2009 wkleiłem)

      Themes For 2009

      Looking ahead in 2009 here are some things I see as likely.

      Obama will pass a stimulus package of $850+- billion but $300 billion will be
      "tax relief" amounting to $19 a week at most. $19 a week per household is not
      going to stimulate much of anything but it will add to the budget deficit.
      People will use that money to pay down bills, which is exactly what they should
      be doing with it.

      The first 3-5 months are going to be extremely weak on the jobs front with
      400,000 or more jobs lost each month. Obama is going to need to create 2-3
      million jobs just to counteract job losses in first half of the year. There is
      no way he is going to create jobs that fast given implosions in state budgets
      and retailers.

      In 2009 consumers will continue to retrench, housing will continue to decline,
      and as many as 100 small or regional banks will implode over falling commercial
      real estate prices. The Fed may arrange shotgun marriages with these banks
      instead of letting them go under.

      I am sticking with a thesis that says we are currently in a sucker rally in the
      stock market that will end soon after inauguration or moments after Obama signs
      a new stimulus package. My target is 600 on the S&P but 450 is not out of the
      question. However, it is better to think of this in ranges and that range would
      roughly be 450-700.

      It is quite possible the lows in treasury yields are in. Unlike 2008 where I was
      constantly beating the drums for lower yields, 2009 could be different. Here are
      the facts: 3 month and 6 month yields hit 0% and the 10 year came close to
      hitting 2%. Could there be lower yields still? Yes, quite easily. Is it worth
      playing for other than as a hedge or part of an overall investment strategy? No.

      Should treasuries be shorted? No, it is too early. Yields can easily make lower
      lows. Just because something is not a good long, does not make it a good short.
      Look at how long yields stayed low in Japan. I doubt we see a print of 4 on the
      10-year treasury for a long time. If one wants to bet on yields rising in a for
      a reflation trade, there are better plays such as going long energy stocks that
      yield a nice dividend as well.

      What About Gold, The Dollar, Inflation?

      Let's work backwards. One thing that is virtually guaranteed not to happen in
      2009 is hyperinflation. So toss that silly hyperinflation ideas out of your head
      before they poison your mind. Credit marked to market is going to continue to
      plunge, and plunge at a faster rate than any stimulus from Obama or any
      swap-o-rama tactics by the Fed. In my book that is deflation. You might not be
      able to see it as the Fed will allow banks to hide the destruction of credit in
      level 3 assets or off the books in SIVs, but pretending something is worth more
      than it is does not make it so.

      The Fed at some point will resort to out and out monetization, and that will
      have the inflationists screaming at the top of their lungs. However, banks will
      still be reluctant to lend, and consumers and businesses will be reluctant to
      borrow. In addition, I expect the velocity of money printed to be close to zero
      and for the savings rate to rise. In aggregate, these are not hyperinflationay
      things. Heck, they are not even inflationary things.

      US Dollar Trading Range

      Where the dollar goes will depend greatly on what foreign central banks do.
      Additional cuts by the ECB, BOE, and China will be dollar friendly. I expect
      those to happen. I am sticking with a thesis that has the dollar index in a
      trading range of 75-90 for most of the year. If Obama proves to be more fiscally
      prudent than the market participants think (this is quite possible because no
      prudence at all is expected), then the dollar can easily bust the top of that
      range. If the ECB refuses to cut in the face of an expanding recession, the
      dollar can fall to the bottom of that range.

      It is highly unlikely the dollar crashes in 2009. The dollar already crashed.
      There is no other word for a plunge from 120 to 70 on the US dollar index.
      Furthermore, seignior currencies tend to strengthen in deflation and there is no
      reason to believe deflation will come to an abrupt end.

      Wildcards

      China is a wildcard, as is war in Mideast between Israel and Iran, as is
      protectionist legislation coming from Congress. On the positive side, pulling
      troops out of Iraq is likely dollar friendly. The rationale is spending money in
      the US where we at least get something out of it on the asset side of the
      balance sheet is better than wasting money dropping bombs. And finally it is
      possible that Obama makes peaceful overtures towards Iran, diffusing a messy
      situation. This too would likely be dollar friendly.
      Where's Gold Headed?

      So where is gold headed in 2009? The answer is I do not know nor does anyone
      else. It is far easier to post solid reasons why S&P earnings will continue to
      fall, unemployment will continue to rise, and various stimuli will fail to
      stimulate than it is to predict the likelihood of various wildcards, actions by
      foreign central banks, etc., that may affect sentiment towards gold.

      You may wish to consider buying some gold (not coins as the markup is
      ridiculous) and simply holding on to it for the long haul. Physical gold, stored
      outside the country, at GoldMoney is one of the best options. In the interest of
      full disclosure I have a relationship with GoldMoney and will benefit if you
      open up an account using the above link. It will not affect the price you pay
      when you buy or receive when you sell.

      It is not possible to predict what timeframe it takes for market participants to
      realize it's not just the US dollar that is trash, but rather every fiat
      currency on the planet. That realization is a process, not an event that can be
      timed. So don't bet so much on it (or anything else for that matter) that you
      will lose sleep over it if price declines for a while longer.

      Here's one final thought on equities: Expect the first half of 2009 to be a
      traders market, most likely biased to the downside, perhaps all the way through
      September. At that point (especially if downside S&P targets are reached), the
      final three months may provide a substantial 4th quarter rally. Whatever you do,
      don't marry this scenario or any other scenario. Be nimble, take the setups you
      see, and be happy with them.

      Wishing you a happy and prosperous new year.
      • polarbeer Re: Mish 2009 10.01.09, 16:18
        dodaj do Misha jeszcze Ackermana
    • stoje_i_patrze Roubini 10.01.09, 11:50
      Koniec recesji to optymistycznie koniec 2009 / pocztek 2010. Pesymistycznie usa
      stana sie druga japonia:

      www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254974/latest_roubini_article_for_foreign_policy_warning_more_doom_ahead
      • stoje_i_patrze System bankowy jest niewypłacalny 20.01.09, 18:18
        www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a746r_1q9OOY&refer=home
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