$ 370 bilionow - globalna depresja.

[misterpee]

The biggest bubble of all - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 Trillion – it
will be the root cause for global depression
Alan Hershey
Nov. 17, 2006






An interesting data came out from the Bank for International Settlements. The
global market for derivatives soared to a record $370 trillion in the first
half of 2006. It is the highest ever and the bubble is bigger than any one
can imagine.

The kind of euphoria in derivative trading has never been seen before. The
amount of outstanding credit-default swaps contracts jumped by 60% at the end
of last year. This year the rise is even faster. It is a typical pyramiding
technique. Money is creating false concept of money and that in turn is
creating ever lager conceptual money. When the tide blow off and balloon
bursts, the catastrophe will be unimaginable. The 1929 debacle and resulting
depression will be miniscule to what is coming.

The derivatives were initially designed for hedging. It has now become the
instruments of trade. An example of what can happen is as follows. Recently
when Amaranth, the hedge fund, did bet on the wrong side of the natural gas
market, it lost billions in days and went out of business drowning the
capital of many investors. But something more sinister happened in London
credit swap market. On the news of Amaranth's problem, the credit swaps based
on Amaranth funds collapsed creating massive problem for the London credit
instuments markets. Even the little hedge fund was able to bring the market
to its knees. Thinks what can happen when many hedge funds collapse at the
same time.

Remember 1987. Before the October crash public were arguing about the fact
that the market will not give an inch on the down side. Every individual
investor was in the elevator at the Penhouse level. Finally when the crash
came, the brokers did not pick up their phones and Dow lost more than 20% in
one day. Something much more serious is getting cooked here. The complacency
level, the sentiment indicators and above all the fundamentals are all ready
to make the market collapse big time.


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[misterpee]

CURRENCIES
Dollar drops on weak housing data
Market talk of trouble at hedge fund fuels dollar selling
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usRelated Blog Posts &
ArticlesBy Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:05 PM ET Nov 17, 2006



NEW YORK (MarketWatch)

[misterpee]

www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=%20NI20061116&articleId=3890

Eeeee tam... przyjdzie felusiak z captain_america

[quickly]

i wyjasnia nam, ze te cale tryliony trylionow dolarow, to czysty pic na wode i
ze oni wiedza lepiej... i wszystko bedzie dobrze, bo byl kiedys mistrz nad
mistrze, kochany kowboj Regan, a teraz rzadzi nastepny mistrzunio, dablju Bush.

Spokojna glowa, nieprawdaz felusiak, j-k, marcus-platfusy i inne oszolomy!?

twoja depresja przy mojej depresji jest doprawdy..

[you-know-who]

smieszna. [Mleczko]

strasznie przepraszam, bo jestem tylko duchem - na forum mnie nie ma.
udawajcie ze mnie nie widzicie, blagam, bo jak zona sie dowie ze wlazlem na fs
to bede mial niezla bure.

ale poniewaz juz zajrzalem i widze ze mowa o hf (hf := hedge funds), a to moj
konik (czysto amatorski), to chcialbym o czyms przypomniec i uaktualnic.
czesciowo, bo tyle w tym watku akcentow kanadyjskich, o kraju
gdzie sie wlasnie intensywnie i stalo osiedlam.

amaranth advisors, hf, mialo mlodego pracownika w calgary, w kanadyjskim texasie
zwanym dla odmiany alberta. jakims cudem (jak kiedys jeden bank angielski na
dalekim wschodzie, ten bank juz chyba nie istnieje) temu jednemu czlowiekowi
zawierzono robienie spekulatywnych zakupow (pewnie opcji) gazu ziemnego; w
dodatku ow mlody pampersik spekulowal przy bardzo wysokim stopniu zadluzenia
(niech mi tak bedzie wolno nieudolnie nazwac leverage ratio).
efekt: utrata 6mld sposrod 9mld dolarow w obrocie firmy amaranth, kolaps,
nerwowka na rynku: czy dojdzie znow do niemal zalamania systemu bankowego
(udzielajacego wysokich pozyczek amaranthowi) jak przy podobnym nieco w
efekcie dla firmy kolapsie ltcm (long-term cap. manag.), hf ktory o malo nie
wywrocil do gory dnem wielu beczek z pieniedzmi? Odpowiedz: chyba nic wielkiego
sie nie stalo. brak powodu do paniki.
jednak o depresji mozemy podyskutowac. mam depresje jak patrze na to co sie
dzieje. fundusze emerytalne musza w cos inwestowac, bo po to sa. w akcje na
zasadzie mutual funds (long positions only) na razie nie bardzo warto, wiec
wchodza ostro choc bez rozglosu w hf. a hf wchodza masowo w derivatives.
stad ten zawrot glowy przy wycenie calkowitej masy tych instrumentow.
nie jestem specjalista, ale zgdaje sie ze w tym sektorze wszystko jest tak
dokladnie zaplatane, kazdy pozycza kazdemu $10 lub wiecej papierowych pieniedzy
pod zastaw $1 realnego dolara lub nawet !4 akcji, wiec latwo nabic licznik
podliczjac te sumke $360 bilionow (ang: trillion) liczac kazdy realny dolar
wielokrotnie. mam na mysli to ze gdyby mialo dojsc do rozliczenia i zwrotu
wszystkich opcji i umow, te 360 mogloby sie zmniejszyc do znacznie mniejszej
sumy, choc tez imponujacej. poza tym, z tego co slyszlem, hf operuja tylko
drobna czescia tej calosci, wiec gdyby tylko pare duzych firm sie wylozylo,
moze mowa bylaby o stracie pol biliona (zaraz powiem skad wytrzasnalem te
zgadnieta liczbe).

co mnie natomiast leczy z depresji, to to ze po pierwsze, nie mam ani grosza
w hf. po drugie, naleze do pewnego kultu samolotow transportowych zwiazanego z
renesansem.

cargo cult to religia powstala wsrod tzw. dzikusow w melanezji (vanuatu, dawniej
nowe hebrydy) pod wplywem magicznego zalewu ich wyspy darami materialnymi
schodzacymi prosto z nieba w czasie transportow wojskowych latach IIw.sw.,
www.smithsonianmagazine.com/issues/2006/february/john.php

z kolei renesans to w tym przypadku magiczna hf, fabryka pieniedzy o nazwie
renaissance technologies, lub www.rentec.com, warta obecnie $20 mld, ale
zapowiadajaca cos co nie udalo sie zadnemu funduszowi w dziejach gieldy:
chca obracac $100 mld i pomnazac je konsystentnie co roku, nigdy nie tracac
pieniedzy, a po drugie bijac zauwazalnie indeksy gieldowe (s&p nasdaq i nyse).
magellan moze byl najblizszy...

co ma jedno z drugim wspolnego? otoz rentec jest najlepszym ale gleboko
utajnionym hf na swiecie: od 1988 srednio ze $100 1go stycznia robi $134 w
nastepnego sylwestra, co roku. pisalem o tym kiedys duzo, wiec sie nie bede
powtarzal. to co sie obecnie zmienia, to fakt ze o rentecu mozna sie juz
dowiedziec tego i owego z googla i prasy - od czlonkow rentec cargo cult,
niewiele rozumiejacych ludzi zafascynowanych magia ich metody, no i wynikow.
tak jak cargo cult czci niejakiego 'johna frumma', ktory sprowadzal ma wyspe
dary z nieba, tak firme rentec prowadzi jim simons, 67:
www.turtletrader.com/trader-simons.html
(ale to notka sprzed paru lat, teraz juz nie $4 mld tylko zarzadzaja $20 mld).

simons to tworca teorii topologicznej cherna-simonsa z 1974r., ktora jest
nieslychanie uzyteczna w tak praktycznych rzeczach jak teoria superstringow:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chern-Simons_theory
Chern-Simons theory is a gauge theory, which means that a classical
configuration in the Chern-Simons theory on M with gauge group G is described by
a G principle bundle on M. The connection of this bundle is characterized by a
connection one-form A which is valued in the Lie algebra g of the Lie group G.
In general the connection A is only defined on individual coordinate patches,
and the values of A on different patches are related by maps known as gauge
transformations. These are characterized by the assertion that the covariant
derivative, which is the sum of the exterior derivative operator d and the
connection A, transforms in the adjoint representation of the gauge group G. The
commutator of the covariant derivative with itself is a g-valued 2-form F called
the curvature or field strength and it also transforms in the adjoint
representation.
In the context of string theory, a U(N) Chern-Simons theory on an oriented
Lagrangian 3-submanifold M of a 6-manifold N arises as the string field theory
of open strings ending on a D-brane wrapping M in the A-model topological string
on N. The B-Model topological open string field theory on the spacefilling
worldvolume of a stack of D5-branes is a 6-dimensional variant of Chern-Simons
theory known as holomorphic Chern-Simons theory.

Chern-Simons theories are related to many other field theories. For example, if
one considers a Chern-Simons theory with gauge group G on a manifold with
boundary then all of the 3-dimensional propagating degrees of freedom may be
gauged away, leaving a 2-dimensional conformal field theory known as a G
Wess-Zumino-Witten model on the boundary. In addition the U(N) and SO(N)
Chern-Simons theories at large N is well approximated by matrix models.
The Chern-Simons term can also be added to models which aren't topological
quantum field theories. In 3D, this gives rise to a massive photon if this term
is added to the action of Maxwell's theory of electrodynamics. This term can be
induced by integrating over a massive charged Dirac field. It also appears for
example in the quantum Hall effect. Ten and eleven dimensional generalizations
of Chern-Simons terms appear in the actions of all ten and eleven dimensional
supergravity theories.


sami rozumiecie, dziesieciowymiarowa teoria supergrawitacji. za takie rzeczy
dostal kiedys matematycznego prawie-nobla.

potem, po roznych kolejach losu, m.in. w nat. security agency pod waszyngtonem
przerzucil sie powoli na nauki stosowane, w wyniku ktorych osiagnal niezgorszy
roczny zarobek $1.5 mld w 2005. w tym celu zatrudnil 230 osob, w tym pon. polowa
z doktoratem z mat., fiz., astron., itp.

a propos, wlasnie ich strona sieciowa po wieloletnim 'zniknieciu'
wrocila z ogloszeniem o prace dla programistow:
www.rentec.com/programming.pdf
www.rentec.com/
uprzedze was jednak z gory, nie wszytsko co slyszycie o rentecu jest prawda.
na przyklad, nie dajcie sie nabrac na zarobki obiecywane w pierwszym roku
($125,000-$250,000). w istocie sa wyzsze.

dlaczego wspominam o rentecu? po pierwsze, bo jest to zupelnie cos innego niz
ten kanadyjski przyglup i jego imbecylni szefowie z amaranth.
rentec ma NISKI margin ratio (leverage). w swym slynnym funduszu hf medallion,
w danej chwili czasu nie ma zainwestowanej wiekszosci pieniedzy pod swa
kontrola. ma sie to zmienic

[you-know-who]

ma sie to zmienic w nowo otworzonym funduszu instytucjonalnym (min.
wplata $20 mln) do ktorego wciaga wlasnie wielkich inwestorow z bogatych
uniwersytetow, fundusze emerytalne i moze banki. ale i tak bedzie to
nieslychanie malo ryzykowna gra, w porownaniu z ryzykiem typowym dla obecnego
systemu finansowego swiata. brawo jim.

wlasciwie pozostaje mi zakonczyc pytaja was czy nie pozyczylibyscie mi
jakies $19,600,000 na rok? Oddam $22,600,000, obiecuje. 50-50.

you-know-who

PS. podtrzymuje moje zdanie:
forum.gazeta.pl/forum/72,2.html?f=50&w=43177205&a=43177205

[you-know-who]

dorzuce pare nowych (oprocz 1szej) linek, wszystko to cargo cult, ale milo
poczytac:
chinese-school.netfirms.com/abacus-hedge-funds-Jim-Simons.html
www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2005/11/the_medallion_f.html
www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=214
www.fundstreet.org/2006/02/renaissances_me.html
www.post-gazette.com/pg/05349/622925.stm
czyz nie mamy szczescia zyc w ciekawych czasach: czasoprzestrzen okazala sie
plaska i rozszerza coraz szybciej a nie coraz wolniej, jest az 1e22 planet w
naszym zakatku wszechswiata, rynek nie jest efektywny (nie bladzi przypadkowo i
mozna konsystentnie wygrywac na gieldzie), to tylko pare fundamentalnych
ciekawostek. nie wspominajac o kalejdoskopie politycznym, w ktorym jestesmy
obracani: komunizm, globalizm, neokonizm, rzeczpospolita v. 4.0.
pzdr

Takie bzdury wypisuje się w celu robienia wody

[felusiak1]

z mózgu. Wystarczy jedynie nie wiedzidć co to są derivatives, do czego służą i
mamy takie kwiatki jak misterpee wychodował.
Derivatives are not assets. Raczej forma ubezpieczenia ryzyka. Ponieważ to samo
ryzyko ubezpieczone jest kilka razy, suma wydaje sie być astronomiczna.
Z tym, ze those often-quoted figures are notional amounts.
Polecam www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-283.html

Amerykanska fabryka pieniedzy

[j-k]

(bez pokrycia) pracuje od wielu lat wyjatkowo dobrze.
Pisalem o tym wielokrotnie.

Swiat nie ma zadnego interesu, by ta fabryka przestala pracowac...
wtedy dopiero bylaby depresja :)))

sypiaj wiec spokojnie :)))

[aaki]

w ekonomii nie ma darmowych obiadów

[misterpee]

American Middle Class: Endangered Species
USA/Pete Fisher
March 1, 2006 - With jobs being outsourced to various parts of the world, and
with the current practices of importing cheap foreign labor, and using
temporary job services we are seeing a disturbing trend of a dwindling Middle
class.

Companies like Motorola and G.E. are notorious for contract labor these days,
as well as redefining educational requirements that favor foreign workers over
American workers. A friend of mine recently applied to a job with Motorola,
after having worked there for over a decade as an engineer with an AA degree
before being outsourced a few years ago.

He was told at the interview that his educational requirements were not high
enough, and that the position paid him well under the 70k he was making at a
rival company. The position he was told paid between 46-52k, and as posted,
required at least 3 years experience in the filed he applied for, which he had
10 years. He then found out through a friend there that an edict was passed
down by the president that no engineer could be hired with less than a BA
degree. Doesn’t matter anymore that a person has a long history of solid work
performance anymore, a high level of education is required, due mostly I think
to the fact that they can more easily hire foreign labor over American workers
without the fear of lawsuits.

So I tested this theory of my friend and looked through several job boards such
as Monster and Yahoo and checked for myself. I typed in the word “engineer” and
saw many postings come up. I also went on corporate websites such as Motorola
and G.E. and looked at their requirements. My friend was correct. All the
engineering positions required a BA or higher, some a Masters or higher. With
some exception, I saw positions that still allowed equivalent experience with
an AA or BA background. Those I found on a few smaller companies would still
hire with experience and some education, but the pay was also much less.

So now I see why many recent graduates with BA degrees have been loudly
complaining that they are having a very hard time finding work. Even with those
degrees, many places are expecting at least 3 years experience to go along with
that. And the other thing I observed was a requirement from Motorola that nay
degree had to be accredited by one of 5 agencies here in the States, no
technical schools or certificates. Yet, when hiring foreigners, there is no
compliance to these same regulations. It looks conspicuously like these jobs
are being tailored to cheaper imported labor by making demands on American
works that are extremely hard to meet when one hits their 40’s and above. The
temp agencies are drooling over this phenomenon because corporations no longer
desire to commit to their employees and can toss a temp worker out like trash
as soon as a job is finished and never worry about benefits.

So we see in this entire situation a Middle Class that has had to severely
tighten their belts, and so we have a trend of spending retirement monies, and
higher debt among our Middle Class. Real Estate is rising at such a high rate
that taking a state like California, we see only around 15% of the population
can actually afford a median priced home. And watching the spending habits of
the American population take a dive due to cost of living rising higher than
income levels those same corporations who have manipulated the work force are
paying a high price. The typical American worker does not feel as safe anymore
when outsourcing and lay offs are the trend of the culture. How is anyone
expected to take out a mortgage or car payment when all they have been able to
find is temporary work? How are they expected to keep up with continuing tax
hikes on income and property when they corporations tailor job descriptions so
they can import foreign labor at cheaper costs?

With a median home price around 200k in the Chicago area, how many young
couples can save up the 25% down payment and still make an estimated mortgage
with taxes and insurance of around $1,600.00 per month? How can they go buy a
new car and feed their families if professional positions are being down graded
to factory worker pay rates, and factory jobs are disappearing at alarming
rates to foreign nations?

What will eventually occur is the Middle Class will disappear leaving only the
Haves and the Have Nots with the latter being the bulk of the population. What
these corporations who continue to outsource jobs and bring in cheaper foreign
labor seemingly do not understand is that Americans are the world’s largest
consumers. We have seen consumer goods sales declining over the past decade and
even after huge layoffs and foreign factories making for higher profits in the
short run, many corporations are still wondering why sales have fallen and
cannot get up.

The reason is, you are laying off your largest customer base. Those people in
China or India, or Vietnam are not buying cell phones that cost them over a
half year salary, nor are they watching 60 inch televisions on legal copies of
DVDs. It is the American worker who in their heyday would purchase about
everything that could be purchased because they felt if they took out a loan
for a huge stereo, their jobs would still be there to pay it off in 3 years.

Homes going into foreclosure have hit record highs the past few years; new car
sales are lagging to the point where Ford and GM have plant closings in their
schedule. And even with low interest rates and discounts, they cannot sell a
car as they used to. Fewer people are willing to commit more than a year on
most financial purchases because they have no clue if their jobs will be here
or not. Though corporate CEO’s are making record salaries, most have their
bonuses tied to the bottom line, so when they slash jobs and ruin peoples’
lives, they get paid more. Chairmen sit and look at their tens of millions
dwindle to perhaps only 8 million and scream for cutbacks and cheaper labor to
keep profits high.

Yet they cannot see that as they continue this trend, people get less committed
to make major purchases or buy goods that are deemed as luxury or unnecessary.
With the rising cost of living, and higher property taxes, people just cannot
keep up anymore. The people who worked for decades to make a company great are
treated as dirt and shoved out the back door like a crippled dog, being told to
be happy with the 2 months pay they are getting and another month if they sign
a document that says they will not sue the company. This act alone should be
treated as any other type of racketeering charge as most people fear they will
end up with nothing at all and are forced almost at gunpoint to sign.

So for Motorola, GM, G.E., Ford, and all other companies who outsource and
import cheaper labor, your days are coming. Because you have crippled the
middle Class in America, and you have abused your own best customer. You can
only make so much profit and then what? Personally, if I have to buy a foreign
made cell phone I may as well just buy a Samsung or a LG phone. They are
cheaper and work well, and not having confidence in my job anymore, I need to
be thrifty. Why should I pay 400 dollars for a Motorola phone made in China and
created by foreign engineers on H1-B visas when I can get one for 40 dollars?

Why should I take a beating on a new car Ford and GM, when I have no clue if my
job will be around to finish the payments off in 5 years? I can get a used
Toyota for a couple of grand, since Ford is made in Mexico and Canada anyway.
So I may as well buy the better foreign car, even used. I will be thrifty on my
way down to the bottom, as many people will.

You wanted to make cheap foreign goods,

bzdury :)))

[j-k]

aaki napisała:
> w ekonomii nie ma darmowych obiadów

Ameryka je jada na koszt Swiata juz 10 lat...
I bedzie je jadac nastepne 10 :)))

w zamian za policyjna ochrone swoich interesow :)))