Porady dla inwestorów

[pawel-l]

Warto się uczyć od najlepszych. Jak macie jakieś dobre rady dla
inwestorów to dorzućcie.

Here are some lessons and rules from Merrill Lynch.
Richard Bernstein’s Lessons
1. Income is as important as are capital gains. Because most
investors ignore income opportunities, income may be more important
than are capital gains.
2. Most stock market indicators have never actually been tested.
Most don’t work.
3. Most investors’ time horizons are much too short. Statistics
indicate that day trading is largely based on luck.
4. Bull markets are made of risk aversion and undervalued assets.
They are not made of cheering and a rush to buy.
5. Diversification doesn’t depend on the number of asset classes in
a portfolio. Rather, it depends on the correlations
between the asset classes in a portfolio.
6. Balance sheets are generally more important than are income or
cash flow statements.
7. Investors should focus strongly on GAAP accounting, and should
pay little attention to “pro forma” or “unaudited” financial
statements.
8. Investors should be providers of scarce capital. Return on
capital is typically highest where capital is scarce.
9. Investors should research financial history as much as possible.
10. Leverage gives the illusion of wealth. Saving is wealth.

David Rosenberg’s Lessons
1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be
combined with a market call.
2. Never be a slave to the data – they are no substitutes for astute
observation of the big picture.
3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the
side of optimism – except at the bottom.
4. Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast.
5. No two cycles are ever the same.
6. Never hide behind your model.
7. Always seek out corroborating evidence
8. Have respect for what the markets are telling you.
9. Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients
live in the short run.
10. Of all the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often.
11. Highlight the risks to your forecasts.
12. Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of
itself.
13. Expansions are more fun than recessions (straight from Bob
Farrell’s quiver!).

Bob Farrell’s 10 Lessons
1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the
other direction.
3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rising and falling markets usually go further than
you think.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they
narrow to a handful of blue-chips.
8. Bear markets have three stages.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is
going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/01/lessons-from-merrill-lynch/