Druga odsłona kryzysu - EUROPA?

ZAMIESZKI w EUROPIE?

[stoje_i_patrze]

euobserver.com/9/27460
EU states monitor spread of civil unrest

In a Wednesday interview with the BBC, the head of the International Monetary
Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, predicted that the economic downturn will cause
more unrest.

"[It could happen] almost everywhere, in Europe certainly, and also in emerging
countries," he said. "You've had some strikes that look like normal, usual
strikes, but it may worsen in the coming months."

Asked which countries were most at risk, Mr Strauss-Kahn mentioned Hungary,
Ukraine, Latvia and Belarus. "It can be my own country [France], the UK, it can
be eastern Europe," he said.

"The situation is really, really serious," he added.

[pawel-l]

Pierwsze bankructwa już w tym roku ?

Despite the rapidly expanding, pan-European deflationary malaise,
where the banking systems of Spain, Iceland, Ireland, Greece and
Hungary are totally insolvent; where Ireland's debt-GDP ratio has
skyrocketed to 80% year-over-year (with an annualized budget deficit
of almost 10%); where the sovereign debts of Greece and Spain have
already been downgraded and ratings warnings have been issued for
several other countries; where trillions of dollars of asset values
have been wiped out; where government tax revenues are in decline
and rising unemployment threatens to spill into the streets –
against this backdrop, Mr. Trichet was quoted as saying there is “no
threat” of deflation in the euro zone.
Under the rules of the Stability pact, the EU member countries must
adhere to the guidelines of an annual budget deficit no larger that
3% of GDP and an aggregate debt-GDP ratio of 60% or less. But few in
Europe can boast even a positive GDP, while the acceleration of
national debt is simply alarming. In the UK, bank and insurer
bailouts already have a price tag of £500 billion; the British pound
now sits at a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar, while net capital
outflows are staggering. Banks in Spain, Switzerland and Italy have
been also bailed out or nationalized, and the total costs of the
euro zone crisis have yet to be fully realized.

My only confusion is the lack of risk premium priced into current EU
debt. Presently, the German 10-year bond, the European benchmark,
yields 3.23%, but Spanish debt only yields an extra 113 basis points
(bp). In fact, with the exceptions of Ireland, Greece, Poland and
Hungary, the hopelessly indebted nations of Europe are trying to
attract foreign money with investment premiums of less that 150 bp
over their more secure German counterparts. At some point, investors
will demand higher risk premiums, and simply tighter regulations by
the ECB will not stimulate foreign capital inflows into a
floundering Spanish economy, nor will they inspire the German
populace to spend their national gold reserves on bailing out
Hungary and Italy.

I strongly believe that further sovereign downgrades to junk or
third-world status lie ahead for several European countries. What's
worse, regardless of how "at the ready" Mr. Trichet is to take on
the Herculean task of a pan-European reorganization, there is a very
real probability of sovereign defaults in 2009. When asked about
such a possibility, his response was, “I would totally exclude any
kind of hypothesis such as the one you suggest.”

[stoje_i_patrze]

dzieki za wrzutke. nastepnym razek podawaj tez prosze i linka do zrodla badz
napisz z jakiego to forum

Agency debt dla EMU

[stoje_i_patrze]

Kłótnia i urabianie Niemiec rozpoczęte:
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/4571850/Europe-ambushes-Germany-on-debt-bail-out.html

Europa w czarnej

[stoje_i_patrze]

Document: European Banks May Need Huge Bailout - PaperLast update: 2/11/2009
9:01:45 AMLONDON (Dow Jones)--European banks sitting on GBP16.3 trillion of
troubled assets may suffer massive losses, The Daily Telegraph reports, citing a
confidential Brussels document. A secret 17-page paper discussed by European
Union finance ministers Tuesday, also warned that government attempts to buy up
or underwrite such assets could plunge the E.U. into a deeper crisis. National
leaders and E.U. officials share fears that a second bank bailout in Europe will
raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who
lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of
countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and the U.K. to pay it
back. "Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary
costs - actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in
absolute terms and relative to gross domestic product in member states," the
European Commission document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned. Full story:
]

UK bedzie drukowac kase!

[stoje_i_patrze]

czyli kupowal obligacje panstwa (zwane potocznie gilts). to jawny druk pieniadza

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4594455/Bank-of-England-will-buy-gilts-to-boost-economy.html

Europa - 4Q PKB

[stoje_i_patrze]

1. Gospodarka Estonii skurczyła się w IV kw. 2008 najmocniej od co najmniej 15 lat

stooq.pl/n/?f=225413
2 PKB Węgier spadł w IV kw. 2008 o 2,0 proc. rdr
stooq.pl/n/?f=225412
3
Niemcy Dynamika PKB IV kwartał -2.1% q/q, -1.6% y/y
Francja Dynamika PKB IV kwartał -1.2% q/q
Czechy Dynamika PKB IV kwartał 1% y/y
Węgry Dynamika PKB IV kwartał -1% q/q, -2% y/y

europa wschodnia (centralna) - ciekawe zestawienie

[stoje_i_patrze]

Eastern Europe: On Crisis Watch
www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/255488/eastern_europe_on_crisis_watch
wynika z niego jasno że jestesmy kolejni w kolejce po tych co mają niezłą wtopę
jak litwa łotwa i estonia plus wegry. brakuje mi tu jeszcze ukrainy. jesli by
sie udalo cos zrobic z Polska to kolejne sa badz obok bulgaria i rumunia i na
koncu czechy


brak jednak paru innych panstw jak bialorus, kazachstan. no ale to troche inne
polozenie.

Ireland ‘could default on debt’

[stoje_i_patrze]

business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5733723.ece#cidTC-RSS&attr=1185799

Currencies caught in eye of storm

[stoje_i_patrze]

The currencies of central and eastern Europe have taken a battering but there
could be worse to come as banks in the eurozone draw in their horns.

Most of the larger current account deficits in the emerging market world are in
central and eastern Europe, and the region has a high level of export
dependency. It is in the eye of the global economic storm.

The Hungarian forint dropped to a record low of Ft304.25 against the euro this
month, and is 12 per cent down against the single currency this year.

Poland's zloty has fallen to a five-year low against the euro and is down 11 per
cent this year. The Czech koruna is at a three-year low against the euro, down 7
per cent since the start of the year.

Countries in the region stand out as among the emerging economies that are most
vulnerable to the global crisis. They face growing problems funding large
current account deficits and paying off external debt, analysts say.

Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary have external debt bills this year of
about $100bn, according to ING Financial Markets, which they could struggle to
repay given that access to credit markets is still limited.

Hungary has been forced to seek help from the International Monetary Fund to
meet repayments. Analysts say it is not inconceivable that Poland and the Czech
Republic will end up in the same predicament.

Gerard Lyons at Standard Chartered says: "The dependency on capital inflows is
alarming when one considers the global implications of the credit crunch. With
exports slumping and foreign direct investment plans being put on hold, the net
result is a significant turnround in flows to emerging economies."

According to the Institute for International Finance, net commercial bank
lending to emerging economies declined from an inflow of $410bn in 2007 to $67bn
in 2008, and is forecast to switch to an outflow of $61bn this year. "Even this
may be too optimistic," says Mr Lyons. "The scale of the problem leaves eastern
Europe very vulnerable."

Nigel Rendell, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Capital Market, says:
"Eastern Europe is definitely the region that is in the most difficulties. I
expect the currencies in most of these countries to face further sharp falls.

"It does not help that the Russian rouble has slumped. That has hurt the eastern
European currencies. Unlike Russia, these countries do not have large foreign
reserves to fall back on."

Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas says there are clear similarities between the
economic and financial conditions in emerging Europe and east Asian economies
before the 1998 crisis. The Asian crisis was preceded by rapid growth in credit
to the private sector, with a significant share of loans denominated in foreign
currency.

East Asian economies also recorded large current account deficits, mainly
induced by the private sector. These deficits were financed by strong debt
inflows, which reversed sharply after the crisis.

Before the credit crisis, the massive external funding needs of eastern Europe
came mostly in the form of foreign direct investment from the eurozone.

Eurozone banks have the largest exposure to central and eastern Europe, with
liabilities of $1,500bn, about 90 per cent of total foreign bank exposure to the
region.

Analysts warn that eurozone banks, especially those that have taken state aid,
are less likely to want to roll over the sizeable debt that is maturing in the
next few months.

Credit Suisse estimates that $9bn in foreign exchange debt will mature in
Hungary during the next three months, while in Poland the figure is $23bn.

This response of central banks in the region to the economic slowdown has made
the situation worse.

Ulrich Leuchtmann at Commerzbank says central banks have cut interest rates at a
perilous pace in an effort to support local economies without any consideration
of the external value of their currencies.

Hungary went to the IMF for help in October, but disregarded its advice to cut
rates more slowly.

Poland continues its restrictive fiscal policy in an effort to keep the
household deficit within limits set by Maastricht criteria for entry into the
eurozone.

Mr Leuchtmann says the only solution for the central banks in the region would
be to denounce further rate cuts and explain to the market that they are worried
about the external value of their currencies.

"At this stage, it is uncertain, though, whether even this step would be able to
stop the sell-out of the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty and Czech koruna," he says.

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0216769a-fa39-11dd-9daa-000077b07658.html

[pifpaf123]

ft.onet.pl/9,21451,waluty_w_oku_cyklonu,artykul.html

wschodnia i centalna europa - kryzys

[stoje_i_patrze]

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown
The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe
has reached acute danger point
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html

[stoje_i_patrze]

Cytat"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the
collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der
Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

CytatThe European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says
bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The
Vienna press said Bank Austria and its Italian owner Unicredit face a
"monetary Stalingrad" in the East

CytatStephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has
borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or
roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck.
The credit window has slammed shut.

[stoje_i_patrze]

CytatWhether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover
that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that
there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to
flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

CytatThe sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already
bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan – and Turkey
next – and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve.[color="#FF0000"]
We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world,
using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.[/color]

[wolo]

Sorry nie widziałem tego i też podlinkowałem niżej. To rzeczywiście
dobry kawałek.

Steinbrueck Says Euro States May Bail Out Members

[stoje_i_patrze]

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg)

[bottomturn]

"...Sam
rozważam zakup po horrendalnych cenach zakup sztabki (pierwsze
lepsze ceny
75tyspln za kg obecnie próby 999)."

horrendalne 75tys zrobiło się okazyjne
Ciekawe jak dzisiejsze 121tys wyglądać będzie po kolejnym kwartale..

Poland Faces a Dilemma as Its Currency Declines

[stoje_i_patrze]

WARSAW

Nacjonalizacja w Niemczech

[stoje_i_patrze]

Germany to break postwar taboo with new bank law
CytatBERLIN/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Chancellor Angela Merkel's government
appears ready to end weeks of intense debate and back a new law this week which
would give Berlin the right to seize private property for the first time in the
postwar era.

The law, an extension of bank rescue legislation agreed last year, is due to go
before Merkel's cabinet on Wednesday and would set the stage for a
nationalisation of Hypo Real Estate (HRXG.DE), a high-profile casualty of the
financial crisis.
uk.reuters.com/article/stocksNews/idUKLNE51G03020090217

Tutaj o Austrii

[wolo]

Przyczyna:

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/4623525/Failure-to-save-East-Europe-will-lead-to-worldwide-meltdown.html

i skutek:
stooq.pl/q/?s=atx&d=20090217&c=3d&t=l&a=lg&b=0
Swoją drogą to nasz WIG20 wygląda całkiem nieźle przy ATXie

Downgrades Loom for Hungary, Poland, Czech Bonds,

[stoje_i_patrze]

Downgrades Loom for Hungary, Poland, Czech Bonds, Yields Show

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVAhIacV3mpg&refer=home

[wolo]

Emerging Europe will post an average current account deficit of 4.1
percent of gross domestic product this year, more than double the
1.7 percent deficit in Latin America and trailing surpluses in Asia,
Africa and the Middle East, according to Citigroup Inc. data on
Czech, Poland, Hungary and five other economies the region.

A mnie sie wydaje, ze to nieprawda. Byc moze w ubieglym roku
mielismy duzy deficyt handlowy. Ale sorry jak jest dolar po 2 zeta
to troche tych fur z Ameryki i Europy przyjechalo. Troche ludzi na
wakacje pojechalo. Akurat bilans handlowy nie powinien być
problemem. Jezeli juz to flowy kapitalowe.

Downgrades Loom for Hungary, Poland, Bond Yields S

[stoje_i_patrze]

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8psRfft7OiI&refer=home

Bailed-out banks to add £1.5 trillion to public de

[stoje_i_patrze]

Buhahahahhah
Bailed-out banks to add £1.5 trillion to public debt
CytatRoyal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB, the two banks bailed out by the
Government, are to add between £1 trilion and £1.5 trillion to the public
debt, the equivalent of between 70 and 100 per cent of GDP, the Office
for National Statistics indicated this morning.

CytatBritain’s public sector net debt is already a record high, hitting 47.8
per cent of GDP in January, official figures show. This is the highest level of
debt recorded since the ONS started recording data in 1993.

CytatHowever the dismal figures do not paint the whole picture, as all
the liabilities of the banks are added to the public books, and only the liquid
assets are taken into account. The capital assets are not included.

CytatThe massive debt will cause problems for the Government, which has
already seen Northern Rock's debts added to its accounts. Analysts said that
it would probably have to revise up its borrowing forecasts in April's
budget.
CytatJanuary is usually a strong month for tax income but the public sector
repaid a net £3.3 billion over the month, well below £13.9 billion a year
earlier, the ONS said.

business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5764793.ece

Stoi ci, to sobie patrz...

[wemur]

po co sie chwalić publicznie.
Uważasz, że cytując anglojęzyczne artykuły jesteś mądrzejszy...Madrzejszy będziesz, jak przeczytasz co napisałeś i z sensem przetłumaczysz.
Za trudne...

dobre

[stoje_i_patrze]

ft.onet.pl/10,21818,unia_europejska_musi_pomoc_swoim_nowym_czlonkom,artykul.html

ciekawt wpis zezowatego

[stoje_i_patrze]

ECB może się zawalić, tako rzecze Roubini
zezorro.wordpress.com/2009/02/20/ecb-moze-sie-zawalic-tako-rzecze-roubini/

Bundesbank fears relapse as German banks face €90b

[stoje_i_patrze]

Bundesbank fears relapse as German banks face €90bn fresh losses
The Bundesbank has told German banks to take advantage of renewed confidence
while they can to prepare for likely losses of €90bn (£81bn) over the next year,
warning that the delayed shock waves of the economic crisis still pose a major
threat to global recovery and bank finance.
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6654352/Bundesbank-fears-relapse-as-German-banks-face-90bn-fresh-losses.html



Greece tests the limit of sovereign debt as it grinds towards slump
Greece is disturbingly close to a debt compound spiral. It is the first
developed country on either side of the Atlantic to push unfunded welfare
largesse to the limits of market tolerance.
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6630117/Greece-tests-the-limit-of-sovereign-debt-as-it-grinds-towards-slump.html

[pifpaf123]

spekulacja skąd się wzięła większość strat z 18bln euro (na
spekulowaniu kursem eurodolara)
urbas.blog.onet.pl/2,ID365684545,DA2009-02-21,index.html

[wsadows]

Ciekawy artykuł, ale skoro banki europejskie przegrały tę walkę o
Euro, to kasa z ich depozytów powinna przeplynąć do banków w USA, a
tam też bida, aż piszczy.

[przycinek.usa]

ciekawy, ale bledny. odwazne tezy, ale niestety niesluszne

Joint Eurozone Bond Idea ‘Has No Chance’

[stoje_i_patrze]

EU’s Barroso Says Joint Eurozone Bond Idea ‘Has No Chance’
Cytat Feb. 23 (Bloomberg)

[coondelboory]

Czyli idzie tak jak krakałem - Niemcy nie chcą płacić, mimo, że to grozi katastrofą eurozony. A może mają nadzieję na wzmocnienie dominacji - komu jak komu, ale Niemcom ludzie pożyczą i chcąc pomocy trzeba będzie się z Niemcami układać oddając to i owo...

[el_matador9]

według prognoz astrologicznych Niemcy wkrótce przestaną wpłacać
pieniądze do budżetu UE(vide 6 procentowy spadek niemieckiego PNB) -
nie będzie żadnych środków unijnych dla polskich słowiańskich tępych
leni którzy dodatkowo rękoma ekonomicznych debili Gronkiewicz Waltz
i Balcerowicza nieopatrznie oddali cały swój sektor bankowy w ręce
zagraniczne...
żeby Was piekło pochłonęło za Waszą bezdenną głupotę!

[przycinek.usa]

do kogo pijesz?
Wszystkiego jeszcze nie oddali. Jeszcze maja PLN.

Ukraina

[stoje_i_patrze]

Ukraine risks unrest as ills worsen

By Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk

Published: March 2 2009 19:16 | Last updated: March 2 2009 19:16

Olexander Pavlenko, a young computer programmer, is one of tens of thousands of
Ukrainians who cannot get their money out of the bank.

He stood in line in Kiev at Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank, two big troubled banks,
planning to withdraw more than $10,000 (€7,950, £7,125). But like many others,
he was told the cash was not available.
I stood in line a couple times with other bank clients who were protesting,
crying and screaming. But the bank told me: ‘Sorry, we simply don’t have the
money now and can’t help you.’”

With about nine banks now under the central bank’s special control, Ukrainians
are increasingly worried.

Even those with their money in apparently solid banks, including those
controlled by west European banking groups, are concerned because the central
bank has banned the early redemption of term deposits, the most popular form of
saving in Ukraine.

Altogether, hryvnia bank deposits have dropped 20 per cent since September and
those in foreign currency 10 per cent.



“This is very serious,” said Olexander Suhonyako, president of the Association
of Ukrainian Banks.

The growing discontent among bank clients is matched by other signs of public
anger at the impact of the global crisis – and at the seeming inability of the
country’s divided leaders to respond effectively.

Recent weeks have seen protests by truck drivers complaining about taxes and the
dramatic decline of the hryvnia, which has complicated the repayment of foreign
currency vehicle loans.
Meanwhile, the owners of street kiosks in Kiev successfully demonstrated against
the city’s plans to take over their stalls.

But with demonstrations drawing only up to 5,000 people, the authorities are
confident there is no serious threat to stability.

They say Ukraine is remarkably calm given the country’s economic problems. Gross
domestic product growth is forecast to contract 5-10 per cent in 2009, while
unemployment is rising and non-payment of wages is becoming more common.

But with political leaders focused on the forthcoming presidential elections due
before the end of the year, some observers fear that the protests will become
bigger.

Oleksiy Haran, a political science professor at Kiev’s Mohyla University, says:
“If [the economic situation] worsens, if more banks run into trouble, and if
more layoffs pile up, then I would expect large crowds to materialise. This will
be dangerous for a country that is struggling already to deal with the economic
crisis.”

There seems to be no end to the disputes between Viktor Yushchenko, president,
and Yulia Tymoshenko, his prime minister.

Much now depends on the implementation of the $16.5bn package assembled by the
International Monetary Fund, including money for bank refinancing. After
disbursing $4.5bn last autumn, the IMF suspended further loans after a policy
disagreement with Kiev.

But Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko pledged at the weekend to co-operate with
each other and the IMF on implementing reforms.

Meanwhile, the IMF agreed to relax its desired deficit target from less than 1
per cent of GDP to about 3 per cent, in the light of the deepening recession.

Co-operating with the IMF will allow Ukraine not only to secure loans but also
support from other international institutions including the World Bank and
multinational banks, which have pledged to back their local subsidiaries.

On Monday, Austria’s Raiffeisen International promised to support Aval, its
Ukrainian affiliate.

Hryhoriy Nemyria, deputy prime minister, insists Ukraine “is not a basket case”.
Ceyla Pazabasioglu, the IMF’s Ukraine mission chief, agrees, saying the
country’s difficulties are not “insurmountable”.

But investors are not so sure. Ukraine’s credit default swap rate – a risk
measure – stands at around 3,700, compared with about 1,000 for Latvia and 560
for Hungary, two other east European states on IMF support.

Every week seems to bring a new crisis – the next could come this weekend, when
Kiev is due to pay a $400m bill to Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly.

.................................

Road from the Orange revolution

Jan 2005 Viktor Yushchenko sweeps to power in the Orange Revolution

Sept 2005 Mr Yushchenko sacks Yulia Tymoshenko, his prime minister, after
repeated disputes

March 2006 Parliamentary elections and appointment of Viktor Yanukovich as prime
minister

2007 Efforts by Mr Yushchenko and Mr Yanukovich to co-operate collapse and new
elections are called. Ms Tymoshenko returns to power

2003-2007 Strong growth, with GDP rising at an annual average of 8 per cent

2008 GDP growth slows to 2 per cent. Gloom spreads into property and banking

March 2009 Economy worsens, with a decline of at least 6 per cent in growth
predicted this year
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

source:
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67fba682-075a-11de-9294-000077b07658.html

Niczego się nie nauczymy:)

[stoje_i_patrze]

www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/4944752/First-the-foreign-currency-binge-now-the-cold-turkey.html

CEE - Europa wschodnia i centralna

[stoje_i_patrze]

tutaj gadka o sytuacji o tym

wejsc nie wejsc o to jest pytanie

[stoje_i_patrze]

Spolka austriacka ktora udzielila wiele pozyczek w tym regionie twierdzi ze
kryzys w regionie CEE jest nadmuchany medialnie i w rzeczywistosci jest lepiej:

Erste Bank Says East European Debts Are ‘Negligible’
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=aQUKvr._LcIA&refer=east_europe
March 6 (Bloomberg)

[stoje_i_patrze]

Oczywista oczywistosc jest taka ze opinie wydal erste ktory jest MEGA
zaangazowany w tym regionie. innymi slowy jemu zalezy na odbiciu bo moze
zbankrutowac. to taka oczywista oczywistosc.

Każdy kij ma dwa końce

[boorack]

Słabsza złotówka pogrążyła kredytobiorców i niektórych spekulujących
eksporterów ale - z drugiej strony - pozytywne skutki widać przy granicach
Mam wrażenie że ostatnia stabilizacja PLN to w duzym stopniu eksport i handel
przygraniczny, i dopiero w mniejszym stopniu efekt interwencji władz (ale mogę
się mylić).

Niestety nie mam dostępu ani wiedzy żeby to przełożyć na konkretne liczby (tzn.
co jest większe - zyski z eksportu czy straty na kredytach), może ktoś z
forumowiczów jest w stanie jakoś to oszacować.

Mamy siłę w postaci przyzwoicie wykształconych ludzi, w tym takich którzy
właśnie wrócili z zagranicznego "treningu" i są tym bardziej wartościowi. Władza
powinna teraz skupić się na maksymalnym aktywowaniu eksporterów oraz małych i
średnich firm. Uproszczenie procedury zakładania firmy jest jakimś tam kroczkiem
do przodu, choć to za mało. Trzeba redukować obciążenia (pytanie: jakie?) -
szczególnie te związane z eksportem i eksportowanymi usługami.

waluty w naszym regionie

[stoje_i_patrze]

O tym nie mozna oczywiscie zapomniec. zaczyna sie jednak granie na to co bedzie
w lipcu. paru cwaniakow zaczyna wierzyc w to ze waluty powinny sie uspokoic i
nawet stracic. zatem dla zagranicy tym lepiej wejsc teraz.

mamy jeszcze jeden przypadek. wg mnie rownie realny - teraz odbicie do powiedzmy
2500 na wig20 nawet a potem nowe dolki bo w wakacje bedzie jeszcze gorzej w
gospodarkach

marzec

[stoje_i_patrze]

i jeszcze jeden case
marzec 1995, marzec1999 czy marzec 2003

roslismy

na wigu moze byc to albo juz odbicie albo ostatnie sucker rally. Po tym sucker
rally (powiedmzy od maja) moze byc odbicie. nie zakladamy przy tym bankructwa
krajów z CEE, ewentualnie byc w czarnej wegrów, 3B(trojki baltyckiej, litwy
lotwy i estonii) oraz UA

polowa marca

[stoje_i_patrze]

mysle tu jeszcze o odbiciu od polowy-koncowki marca. te ostatnie wzrosty (np
kghm )moge zostac wykorzystane do zgarniecia zyskow.

1976-1978

[stoje_i_patrze]

www.mrci.com/special/dspi78.php

[przycinek.usa]

rynek lubi ostatnio spadac 4 razy pod rzad na wykresie tygodniowym.
Obecny tydzien powinien zamknac sie na plus - ale uwaga - przypuszczalnie
nastepny tydzien znowu troche zleci. Osobiscie bede chcial cos kupic w
poniedzialek, (w piatek juz zaczalem polowanie) ale obawiam sie, ze albo bedzie
z tego kicha, albo wszystko odskoczy dynamicznie w gore. Co do FAS - to caly
sektor jest skonczony. Moze bedzie odbicie, ale nie pchalbym sie. Ja koncentruje
sie na pojedynczych spolkach, z zakresu transportu wodnego i kilka
farmaceutycznych.

[stoje_i_patrze]

Pozwole sobie nie zgodzic z Toba w kwesti FAS. Dlaczego? Doskonale wiesz, że
zostałowyznaczonych 19 instytucji ktore przechodza teraz "crash test".
Obstawiam,że zgodzisz sie ze stwierdzeniem (na podstawie historii dzialan
wallstreets crooks) ze ten stress test bedzie, mowiac delikatnie, lewy. Wyjdzie
pewnie z niego ze JPM jest SUPER dokapitalizowany i przygotowany. I tu klucz -
czy rynki to lykna czy nie. calkiem mozliwe ze lykna (postawie na to pare $) i
wtedy bedize odbicie (nie mniejsze niz 10% ale i wieksze, 10% t ominimum) na
financials. chociaz jednodniowo co da DOBRZE zarobic.

Totalnie by mnie zaskoczylo, gdybyfaktycznie ich prozadnie przeswietlili i
powiedzieli by ze sa oni niewyplacalni (zgodne z prawda) a zatem
nacjonalizujemyich chociaz czesciowo(co nie spodowalo by sie arabom i chinczykom
bo to glowne osoby przeciwne nacjonalizacji w usa) caly ten bajzel lub pozwalamy
imupasc kontrolowanie. dodatkowo faktycznie FED wprowadza przejzystosc do gry,w
postaci np in komu i za ile dokladnie pozycza w ramach calej tej "spagetti
programów" pomocowych.

Majac jednak na uwadze niusa o AIG, mozna zaryzykowac stwierdzenie, ze chlopaki
wiedza doskonale ze sa po prostu nie wyplacalni i caly system jest w czarnej.
takie moje zalozenie, boja sie "force selling" i innych rzeczy, w tym upadku
funduszy emerytalnych i wyjscia ludzi na ulice (ktorzy potracili swoje majatki).
jesli mieli byna to dopuscic (transparency) to musza miec juz GOTOWY PLAN CO
DALEJ. pewnie nad tym pracuja, bo gdyby go mieli juz teraz to by go wdrozyli a
tak, na razie wstrzykuja kolejne dawki tego samego"leku/trucizny" ktory
podtrzymuje organizm przy zyciu.

[stoje_i_patrze]

Dodam ze zamknalem FAZ z duzym zyskiemw ten piatek i nie przewiduje w niego
wejsc w najblizszym terminie. tak mi sie wydaje ze wyzej duzo nie pofrunie.

z drugiejstrony firmy ubezpiczeneniowe moga niezle jeszcze namieszac (patrz
aviva i inne z uk ktore odmowili raportowania w nowym standardzie czyli
przyznaly sie nie wprost ze niewyplacalne)

Dlaczego FAS

[stoje_i_patrze]

this Thursday, the House Financial Services Subcomittee will meet to discuss
"mark to market" accounting and whether it should be repealed.

Erste raport do pociagniecia

[stoje_i_patrze]

raport do pociagniecia


nie pytac co i jak

hostuje.net/file.php?id=84775d2dec4c63aaaa8692f7cb56d869

Czyli nie taki diabeł straszny...

[dorota_3]

Naprawdę dobre, czyli jak się okazuje rewelacje na których Ambroży
swoje czarne wizje opierał były ....lekko przesadzone.
Wkleję ten raport Erste na mój wątek o bankach europejskich.