szymi_mispanda
02.03.17, 04:32
Tutaj genialny artykul o tym czym kilka razy wspominalem w roznych watkach ale lemingi mnie zagluszyly piszac ze rozwoj dalej jest bardzo szybki:
Przed komentowaniem lemingu zadaj sobie 10 minut trudu i przeczytaj:
aeon.co/essays/has-progress-in-science-and-technology-come-to-a-halt
Tylko niektore ze stwierdzen:
"Some of our greatest cultural and technological achievements took place between 1945 and 1971. Why has progress stalled?"
"We live in a golden age of technological, medical, scientific and social progress. Look at our computers! Look at our phones! Twenty years ago, the internet was a creaky machine for geeks. Now we can’t imagine life without it. We are on the verge of medical breakthroughs that would have seemed like magic only half a century ago: cloned organs, stem-cell therapies to repair our very DNA. Even now, life expectancy in some rich countries is improving by five hours a day. A day! Surely immortality, or something very like it, is just around the corner.
The notion that our 21st-century world is one of accelerating advances is so dominant that it seems churlish to challenge it."
"Almost every week we read about ‘new hopes’ for cancer sufferers, developments in the lab that might lead to new cures, talk of a new era of space tourism and super-jets that can fly round the world in a few hours. Yet a moment’s thought tells us that this vision of unparalleled innovation can’t be right, that many of these breathless reports of progress are in fact mere hype, speculation – even fantasy."
"Yet there once was an age when speculation matched reality. It spluttered to a halt more than 40 years ago. Most of what has happened since has been merely incremental improvements upon what came before. That true age of innovation – I’ll call it the Golden Quarter – ran from approximately 1945 to 1971. Just about everything that defines the modern world either came about, or had its seeds sown, during this time. The Pill. Electronics. Computers and the birth of the internet. Nuclear power. Television. Antibiotics. Space travel. Civil rights."
"Today, progress is defined almost entirely by consumer-driven, often banal improvements in information technology. The US economist Tyler Cowen, in his essay The Great Stagnation (2011), argues that, in the US at least, a technological plateau has been reached. Sure, our phones are great, but that’s not the same as being able to fly across the Atlantic in eight hours or eliminating smallpox. As the US technologist Peter Thiel once put it: ‘We wanted flying cars, we got 140 characters.’"
"And yes, we are living longer, but this has disappointingly little to do with any recent breakthroughs. Since 1970, the US Federal Government has spent more than $100 billion in what President Richard Nixon dubbed the ‘War on Cancer’. Far more has been spent globally, with most wealthy nations boasting well-funded cancer‑research bodies. Despite these billions of investment, this war has been a spectacular failure. "
"....with most kinds of cancer, your chances in 2014 are not much better than they were in 1974. In many cases, your treatment will be pretty much the same."
"...We still drive steel cars powered by burning petroleum spirit or, worse, diesel. There has been no new materials revolution since the Golden Quarter’s advances in plastics, semi-conductors, new alloys and composite materials. "
"the new ideal is to render your own products obsolete as fast as possible"
tak tak Galtomone - to do Ciebie i twoich ciaglych wymian m.in smartfonow, ktore notabene niczym nie roznia sie od poprzednich.
Nowy smartfon powinien wygladac tak jak w tym krotiej scenie z Predators od 0:40s, a nie tak jak teraz, ze nowy IPhone ktory jest medialna Rewolucja ma niewymienialna baterie Litowo Jonowa notabene technologie opracowana przy programie Apollo:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCnvRfhSYTM
"Half a century ago, makers of telephones, TVs and cars prospered by building products that their buyers knew (or at least believed) would last for many years. No one sells a smartphone on that basis today; the new ideal is to render your own products obsolete as fast as possible. Thus the purpose of the iPhone 6 is not to be better than the iPhone 5, but to make aspirational people buy a new iPhone (and feel better for doing so). In a very unequal society, aspiration becomes a powerful force. This is new, and the paradoxical result is that true innovation, as opposed to its marketing proxy, is stymied. In the 1960s, venture capital was willing to take risks, particularly in the emerging electronic technologies. Now it is more conservative, funding start-ups that offer incremental improvements on what has gone before."
"Boeing took a huge risk when it developed the 747, an extraordinary 1960s machine that went from drawing board to flight in under five years. Its modern equivalent, the Airbus A380 (only slightly larger and slightly slower), first flew in 2005 – 15 years after the project go-ahead. Scientists and technologists were generally celebrated 50 years ago, when people remembered what the world was like before penicillin, vaccination, modern dentistry, affordable cars and TV. Now, we are distrustful and suspicious – we have forgotten just how dreadful the world was pre-Golden Quarter."
"we could be in a world where Alzheimer’s was treatable, clean nuclear power had ended the threat of climate change, and cancer was on the back foot"
Tutaj Noam Chomsky wysmiewa tzw. IA - wszystko lacznie z zalosnymi samochodami Google ktore posiadaja po prostu czujniki i kamery pozwalajace im omijac przeszkody sa nazywane "inteligentnymi"
Jestesmy o lata swietlne od prawdziwego AI, chociazby dlatego ze nie mamy pojecia na temat "swiadomosci" (conscience). Nie mamy bladego pojecia.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ORHGa-vQp0
Wazne od 1:15 i 3:30 - ale zrozumie to czlowiek oczytany, a nie jakis byle smiec ktory nauczyl sie pisac jakies gowna w sandboxsie typu rubyonrails.
Kot czy szczut posiada swiadomosc a my do tej pory tego nie rozumiemy.
Notabebe - nie moge znalezc ale nawet wsrod komputerowcow jest takia konferencja gdzie szef Intela sie tluamczy ze prawo Moora dalej dziala tylko teraz ilosc tranzystorow wzrarsta nie co ma a co 6 lat.
Hehe - dam przyklad ze swojej dzialki - 2 lata temu kupilem laptopa Asus ROG z i7 i GTX980 bo lubie grac w strip pokera. Na dzien dzisijszy nie ma absolutnie zadnego powodu zeby go zmienic na i7 serii 8k i Pascala.
Kto jest z mojego rocznika to wie ze w latach 90s 2 letni komputer to bylo dno i zadna nowa gra nie mogla na nim dzialac.
Pamietam jak kupilem pierwszy SGI Indigo2 na co poszlo 50 procent mojego budzetu - po roku byla wersja Alias Wafefront ktora zabila ta masyzne,
Teraz rozwoj tak wychamowal ze ja swoje GTX 980 bede mial do 2025.
Nie ma prawie prawdziwych programistow piszacych w assemblerze, fortranie, C++ - sa tylko smiecie piszace w sandboxach.
Nawet informatyka sie zatrzymala.
