stoje_i_patrze
24.10.08, 20:12
Mój wpis z capitalstool.com:
Where is the bottom by Roubini
[...]
"And while panic and destabilizing market dynamics is the driver of financial
markets even economic fundamentals are awful as investors are finally
realizing that a severe US and Eurozone and G7 and emerging markets and global
recession is coming and will be deep and protracted. As I have argued for a
while equity prices may have to fall another 30% based on fundamentals alone
before they bottom out. Why so? In a severe two year US and global recession
S&P 500 firms earnings per share (EPS) could realistically fall to $50 or $60.
If P/E ratios fall to 12 this implies the S&P 500 index falling to a 600 to
720 range. If P/E ratios fall - as likely in a recession - to 10 then the S&P
500 index could fall as low as 500 to 600. So even based on fundamental
factors alone there is another 30% or more downside risk to US equities; and
now, on top of such fundamentals, thee is also an ugly and nasty panic-driven
market dynamics at work. "
More at
www.tinyurl.pl/?nWmqdG6h
