yann17
11.09.06, 21:30
Anbar is lost
Situation Called Dire in West Iraq
Anbar Is Lost Politically, Marine Analyst Says
By Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, September 11, 2006; Page A01
The chief of intelligence for the Marine Corps in Iraq recently filed an
unusual secret report concluding that the prospects for securing that
country's western Anbar province are dim and that there is almost nothing the
U.S. military can do to improve the political and social situation there,
said several military officers and intelligence officials familiar with its
contents.
The officials described Col. Pete Devlin's classified assessment of the dire
state of Anbar as the first time that a senior U.S. military officer has
filed so negative a report from Iraq.
One Army officer summarized it as arguing that in Anbar province, "We haven't
been defeated militarily but we have been defeated politically — and that's
where wars are won and lost."
The "very pessimistic" statement, as one Marine officer called it, was dated
Aug. 16 and sent to Washington shortly after that, and has been discussed
across the Pentagon and elsewhere in national security circles. "I don't know
if it is a shock wave, but it's made people uncomfortable," said a Defense
Department official who has read the report. Like others interviewed about
the report, he spoke on the condition that he not be identified by name
because of the document's sensitivity.
Devlin reports that there are no functioning Iraqi government institutions in
Anbar, leaving a vacuum that has been filled by the insurgent group al-Qaeda
in Iraq, which has become the province's most significant political force,
said the Army officer, who has read the report. Another person familiar with
the report said it describes Anbar as beyond repair; a third said it
concludes that the United States has lost in Anbar.
Devlin offers a series of reasons for the situation, including a lack of U.S.
and Iraqi troops, a problem that has dogged commanders since the fall of
Baghdad more than three years ago, said people who have read it. These people
said he reported that not only are military operations facing a stalemate,
unable to extend and sustain security beyond the perimeters of their bases,
but also local governments in the province have collapsed and the weak
central government has almost no presence.
Those conclusions are striking because, even after four years of fighting an
unexpectedly difficult war in Iraq, the U.S. military has tended to maintain
an optimistic view: that its mission is difficult, but that progress is being
made. Although CIA station chiefs in Baghdad have filed negative classified
reports over the past several years, military intelligence officials have
consistently been more positive, both in public statements and in internal
reports.
Devlin, as part of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) headquarters
in Iraq, has been stationed there since February, so his report isn't being
dismissed as the stunned assessment of a newly arrived officer. In addition,
he has the reputation of being one of the Marine Corps' best intelligence
officers, with a tendency to be careful and straightforward, said another
Marine intelligence officer. Hence, the report is being taken seriously as it
is examined inside the military establishment and also by some CIA officials.
Not everyone interviewed about the report agrees with its glum findings. The
Defense Department official, who worked in Iraq earlier this year, said his
sense is that Anbar province is going to be troubled as long as U.S. troops
are in Iraq. "Lawlessness is a way of life there," he said. As for the
report, he said, "It's one conclusion about one area. The conclusion on al
Anbar doesn't translate into a perspective on the entire country."
True, Anbar is the worst, where the US has never had control of Ramadi and no
ability to clear it like Fallujah. But other provinces aren't much better and
this has been true for years. The central government is a joke, the police
and military are militia owned and operated. There are no more troops to send
