Gość: mirex
IP: *.abhsia.telus.net
20.09.04, 04:39
zacznie sie w środe;
Day One: Wednesday
In a pre-dawn raid, undisclosed numbers of Israeli warplanes, taking off from
military airbases in the Negev, destroy Iran’s main nuclear facility at
Bushehr. Israel’s armed forces have released no details, but it is believed
the planes flew over parts of Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq,
refueling in mid-air before reaching their target. Military analysts
speculate that the planes must have refueled somewhere over Iraq.
During the one-hour raid, Iran claims to have shot down “several” Israeli
fighters. Television images show pilots being lynched by furious mobs before
Iranian authorities could reach them. The after-effects of the raid shake the
Arab and Islamic world. Millions take to the streets demanding immediate
action against Israel.
In planning the attack, Israel weighed the threats of Arab and Muslim
reaction. The only other nuclear threat, and a possible danger to Israel, is
Pakistan. Israel considered striking Pakistan’s nuclear sites, too, but
Indian intelligence reports that Pakistan lacks long-distance delivery for
its warheads. Bombay is the farthest they can reach. Additional reassurance
from American intelligence convinced Israel that as long as Musharraf remains
in power, Pakistan does not represent an imminent threat. The decision was
made not to hit Pakistan.
Day Two: Thursday
Believing that Israel would never undertake such actions without U.S.
approval, or at least a tacit nod from the American administration, Iran
retaliates. Thousands of Revolutionary Guards are dispatched across the
border into Iraq with orders to inflict as many casualties on American troops
as possible. Fierce clashes erupt between coalition forces and Iranians.
Within hours, more than 400 U.S. troops are killed, and many more wounded in
heavy fighting. Iranian sleeper agents, who have infiltrated Iraq since the
downfall of Saddam, urge Iraqi Shi’ites into action. They cut major highways
and harass coalition troops, preventing reinforcements from reaching units
under attack. Several helicopters are shot down.
Tehran orders the Lebanese Shi’ite movement, Hezbollah, into action against
northern Israel. Hezbollah launches scores of rockets and mortars against
kibbutzim, towns, and settlements. Israel retaliates. Casualties are high on
both sides of the frontier. Tension in the Middle East reaches a boiling
point. In Washington, the Cabinet convenes in an emergency session.
Massive demonstrations erupt all over the Arab and Islamic world. Crowds of
gigantic proportions take to the streets, ransacking Israeli embassies in
Cairo, Amman, and Ankara. American embassies in a number of other cities are
burned. With police overwhelmed, the military is called in. Armies open fire,
killing hundreds, adding to the outrage.
Day Three: Friday
Following Friday prayers across the Islamic world, crowds incited by fiery
sermons in mosques from Casablanca to Karachi take to the streets in the
worst protests yet. Government buildings are ransacked, and clashes with
security forces result in greater casualties. Martial law is declared, and
curfew imposed, but this fails to prevent further mayhem and rioting.
Islamist groups call for the overthrow of governments and for immediate
military action against Israel.
In Saudi Arabia, Islamist militants engage in open gun battles with security
forces in several cities. The whereabouts of the Saudi royal family are
unknown. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and a dozen other countries, crowds
continue to run amok, demanding war on Israel.
Day Four: Saturday
A longstanding plan to overthrow Musharraf is carried out by senior Pakistani
army officers loyal to the Islamic fundamentalists and with close ties to bin
Laden. The coup is carried out in utmost secrecy.
Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI—a long-time supporter of the
fundamentalists—in agreement with the plotters, takes control of the
country’s nuclear arsenal and its codes. Within hours, and before news of the
coup leaks out, Pakistan, now run by pro-bin Laden fundamentalists, loads two
nuclear weapons aboard executive Lear jets that take off from a remote
military airfield, headed for Tel Aviv and Ashdod. Detouring and refueling in
east Africa, they approach Israel from the south. The crafts identify
themselves as South African. Their tail markings match the given
identification.
The two planes with their deadly cargo are flown by suicide pilots who, armed
with false flight plans and posing as business executives, follow the flight
path given to them by Israeli air traffic control. At the last moment,
however, the planes veer away from the airfield, soar into the sky and dive
into the outskirts of the two cities, detonating their nuclear devices in the
process.
The rest of this scenario can unfold in a number of ways. Take your pick;
none are encouraging.
Israel retaliates against Pakistan, killing millions in the process. Arab
governments fall. Following days of violence, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt
succumb to Islamist rebels who vow open warfare with Israel. The Middle East
regresses into war, with the fighting claiming hundreds of thousands of
lives. A much-weakened Israel, now struggling for its very survival, deploys
more nuclear weapons, targeting multiple Arab capitals. The Middle East is in
complete mayhem, as the United States desperately tries to arrange a cease-
fire.
This was all a bad dream, or rather one writer’s dark vision of what might
happen if the current situation is allowed to continue unchecked. What
precisely are the chances of any of this coming to pass? The probability of
Israel striking Iran is very real. That could happen at any moment. As for
the rest, there is really no way to know what will ensue once the demons are
unleashed. Events could unfold as described above, or they could develop a
bit differently, give or take a nuke or two. Whatever the outcome, it will
not be good.
The solution is far from evident. Takeyh, the professor of national security
studies, notes that in the past where there have been cases of “nuclear
reversal,” such as in South Africa, it has happened due to a change in the
region’s strategic environment.
The Middle East hardly falls into that category. Iran is unlikely to give up
its nuclear deterrence as long as Israel remains a nuclear power. Israel is
unlikely to cede its nuclear capability as long as it feels threatened by the
Arab/Islamic world and as long as Pakistan holds on to its bomb. Pakistan, of
course, points to India, also a nuclear power. India looks at Pakistan and
across the Himalayas and sees nuclear-armed China and says it would never
give up its cherished membership to the elite nuclear club.
In his campaign stops, President Bush keeps reiterating that the world is a
safer place because of his actions. Yet looking at the state of world affairs
it is very difficult to agree with him. The dead-ended Mideast peace talks,
Saudi Arabia’s internal turmoil, continuing Islamist terrorist threats, the
vulnerability of American troops in Iraq, and the question of Iran’s nukes
all contribute to maintaining tensions at an all-time high.
Barring a solid and lasting peace settlement between Israel and its Arab
neighbors, the countries of the Middle East are far from nuclear disarmament.
If anything, nuclear proliferation is only likely to increase as states like
Saudi Arabia find that they, too, need to defend themselves against a nuclear-
armed Iran. Recent reports have indicated that Saudi Arabia is looking to
lease Pakistan’s nukes. The arms race of the Cold War may be dead, but the
race for hot weapons has never been
