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3.0 Evaluation

IP: 195.94.207.* 19.11.02, 12:03
3.0 Evaluation
3.1 Overview
As with any new program, it is equally important to understand how the card
reader system worked as well as whether or not it produced the desired
results. Hence, the evaluation examined both process and outcome features of
the program. This involved the collection of information prior to the
implementation of the MinorChecker® system, during the time it was in
operation, and again after its use had become stabilized in the community.
The following sections present the findings from the Process and Outcome
Evaluations separately.

3.2 Process Evaluation
The primary purpose of the process evaluation was to determine the factors
that enhance or inhibit the ability of the card reader system to reduce sales
of alcohol to minors. In this context, it was deemed important to understand
how the card reader system was being used by licensees and the reactions of
both licensees and young people to the system.

Information for the process evaluation was obtained from four sources: focus
groups; ongoing monitoring of participating licensees; data obtained from
drivers’ licenses recorded by the MinorChecker®; and interviews with
licensees.

3.2.1 Focus Groups
In lieu of a random telephone survey of youth, focus groups were conducted on
two separate occasions in each of the three communities. The first set of
focus groups, conducted immediately prior to implementation of the
MinorChecker® in March 1998, involved 9 groups of 10 individuals representing
four population groups:

16-17 year old males;
18-20 year old males;
18-20 year old females; and,
beverage servers and distributors.
Only one focus group was conducted with 16-17 year old males. It became
readily apparent that even though drinking was commonplace among this age
group, they rarely, if ever, attempted to purchase alcohol themselves. Hence,
this age group would not have been particularly affected by the
implementation of the MinorChecker®. The other groups scheduled with this
population were replaced with groups of beverage servers and retailers.

A second set of focus groups was conducted in January and February 2000, just
prior to the end of the MinorChecker® implementation phase. In each
community, three focus groups were conducted - one with 18-20 year-old males,
one with 18-20 year-old females, and one with beverage servers and
distributors. No focus groups were conducted with the youngest group of males
(i.e., 16-17 year olds).

Focus groups provide qualitative information that is not intended to be
statistically representative of the population. Rather, the information
should be considered as providing interesting and useful hypotheses to be
viewed in light of other supporting research and experience. The extended, in-
depth interviews that comprise focus groups provide an opportunity to probe
the participants’ perceptions and emotions about the topic under
consideration so as to gain a better understanding of reasons for, or
reactions to, a particular situation.

The focus groups were conducted on our behalf by Warren Ashburn of Kelly
Michener, Inc. (Lancaster Pennsylvania). Mr. Ashburn is a skilled focus group
moderator and has had considerable experience in conducting similar groups
with young people on the topic of alcohol consumption.

Each group session was approximately one hour in duration. All young
participants were screened so as to include only those who admitted consuming
alcohol. The session began with a “warm-up” discussion that involved
participants telling stories of their own drinking. Although the purpose of
the exercise was to have participants become more comfortable, it also served
to help characterize their own drinking behaviour and that of their peers.
The discussion then proceeded with the following topics:

drinking venues;
perceptions of drinking (e.g., why people drink; negative aspects of
drinking);
moral and legal aspects of drinking;
access to alcohol;
counterfeit/fake IDs; and
the MinorChecker®.
Alcohol Consumption Patterns
It was apparent that drinking occupied a prominent place in the lives of
these young adults. Drinking was seen as a group activity. They drank often
and occasionally consumed sufficient alcohol to become intoxicated. Most had
begun drinking by the age of 16, and most perceived drinking to be the norm
among their peers. Although a few indicated daily drinking, most confined
their drinking to weekends - defined as Thursday through Sunday. The amount
of alcohol consumed per occasion was dependent upon the quantity of alcohol
available - they drank everything they had. (After all, taking leftover
alcohol home to store for another day wasn’t a viable option for most young
people!).

Males reported more frequent drinking and drinking in higher quantities than
females. Young women would often only have one or two drinks; young men
rarely stopped after one or two.

For the most part, beer was the beverage of choice for young men but women
preferred mixed drinks if they were available. However, the general consensus
was that it didn’t matter what you drank. The goal was to get a “buzz” and so
they drank whatever they could get their hands on.

Drinking Venues
Anecdotal evidence from the participants suggested that most of their
drinking occurred in a private setting (e.g., house, dorm) or in a secluded
location (e.g., park, woods).

Drinking in public places was seen by many as an unnecessary risk. Sitting in
a bar or restaurant consuming alcohol increased one’s exposure to the
likelihood of being caught. Nevertheless, among those who reported drinking
in public, restaurants were viewed as an easy place to get alcohol,
particularly if accompanied by adults. Somewhat surprisingly, the larger,
well-known franchise restaurants were often seen as easy marks.

Experience in bars was limited but some have learned that certain
establishments were very relaxed about the rules. This was particularly true
of certain neighbourhood bars and “college” bars. Young females would often
go to bars with their older boyfriends and had little difficulty being
served.

Perceptions of Drinking
For young people, drinking is an activity in and of itself. Unlike older
persons who usually consume alcohol as an adjunct to a social activity, for
many of the young people who participated in the focus group sessions,
drinking was a primary social activity. They drank to enjoy the pleasurable
sensations of alcohol - disinhibition, euphoria, relaxation. Some indicated
alcohol gave them greater confidence in dealing with each other, particularly
the opposite sex. Several male participants admitted that the purpose of
drinking was to get drunk. Although many denied strong pressure from peers to
drink, there was a general sense that “everyone” did it.

The negative aspects of drinking were well known to most participants.
Throwing up and hangovers were among the common responses. A sense of rage,
committing violence, and doing things that made you “look bad” to your peers
were also noted.

Moral and Legal Aspects of Drinking
All young participants were aware of the drinking age in Pennsylvania and all
knew it was illegal for them to buy and consume alcohol. Many were also aware
of the “zero tolerance” law for young drivers. Fewer than half, however, knew
that it was illegal for them to attempt to purchase alcohol. Most assumed
that the worst consequence of attempting to buy alcohol would be the
embarrassment of being refused service.

There was some disagreement about the appropriateness of the drinking age. As
might be expected, many participants thought that the drinking age was a
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      There was some disagreement about the appropriateness of the drinking age. As
      might be expected, many participants thought that the drinking age was a good
      idea but that it should be lower than 21. Interestingly, even among those who
      thought 21 was an appropriate age limit, they rationalized their own drinking
      by saying they only drank in private and no one got hurt. There was strong
      agreement that regardless of the drinking age, kids were going to drink and
      they had the means to obtain alcohol.

      A consistent finding across all participants was a strong aversion to the
      notion of DUI. Although some admitted engaging in the behaviour on occasion,
      all condemned it and were fearful of the extreme penalties for being caught.

      Many of the young participants were aware of the 90-day license suspension in
      Pennsylvania for drinking under age. The overall perception was that the
      likelihood of being caught was remote. They thought the police had better
      things to do than worry about kids drinking. And, if they were caught, they
      believed that the police would simply confiscate the alcohol and give them a
      warning.

      Few young participants were aware of undercover enforcement programs
      (e.g. “Cops in Shops”) designed to reduce underage drinking. Although some
      found the notion of undercover police officers chilling, they expressed
      skepticism about the ability of the police to cover a sufficient number of
      licensed establishments to be effective.

      Beverage servers and retailers were generally quite knowledgeable about
      enforcement programs. None were pleased about these operations and viewed them
      as a form of entrapment. The antagonism between servers and the police and PLCB
      was blatantly obvious in the discussions.

      Access to Alcohol
      Obtaining alcohol did not appear to present a significant problem for the young
      participants. The most common means of obtaining alcohol was to have an older
      friend or sibling make the purchase. If necessary, they would go so far as to
      ask a stranger to buy alcohol for them.

      Some participants mentioned pilfering from parents’ liquor supply at home as a
      source of alcohol. Somewhat surprisingly, several participants indicated that
      their parents provided alcohol. According to participants, these parents would
      rather have their underage offspring and their friends consume alcohol at home
      under their supervision than in a unsupervised location that might possibly
      involve driving.
      Purchasing their own alcohol was less common among participants than having
      someone older buy it for them. When making a purchase, the best approach was to
      go boldly and confidently into the store without hesitation or fear. If asked
      for ID, they would say they left it in the car. Most often, however, their
      experience was that they were rarely asked. “Six-pack” shops were viewed as the
      easiest place to buy beer. Distributors were riskier because they were seen as
      being far too diligent about checking ID. State stores (i.e., Wine and Spirits
      Shoppes) were simply out of the question as a direct source of alcohol. State
      store employees were very strict about checking ID. Not one participant
      admitted ever attempting to purchase alcohol at a State store.

      Bars and restaurants were less common as drinking venues for participants. Some
      considered it a challenge to try to get served at a bar but most felt it was an
      unnecessary risk when it was so easy to obtain alcohol elsewhere. In each city,
      participants were aware of bars that had a reputation for serving minors4. A
      minority of participants (mostly males) frequented bars and seemed to enjoy
      that drinking atmosphere. Some females would visit bars/restaurants with their
      older boyfriends or with a group of other females who could bluff their way in
      or flirt with the bouncer to gain access.

      Young participants indicated that going to buy alcohol when it was busy offered
      the greatest chance of success. They knew that was when the clerk/server was
      least likely to ask for ID or look at it closely. Offering fast service took
      priority over checking ID. At take-out stores, clerks didn’t want their
      customers to get irritated and take their business elsewhere. At
      bars/restaurants, slow service meant poor tips. Also, participants believed
      that younger clerks/servers, particularly those of the opposite sex, were least
      likely to hassle them about ID. Still others merely “went through the motions”
      of asking for ID without really looking at it.

      Servers and distributors were all aware of the problem of minors attempting to
      purchase alcohol. Not surprisingly, all claimed that their establishments were
      very strict about not serving minors. Many had attended the RAMP sessions and
      were aware of enforcement efforts to catch establishments serving underage
      clients. They knew the penalties for a violation were severe and swore they
      would never knowingly serve a minor.

      In contrast to the beliefs and experiences of the young participants who gave
      numerous illustrations of how easy it was to obtain alcohol, servers were
      adamant that it would be extremely difficult for minors to obtain alcohol at
      their establishment. They claimed to be very good at spotting minors and
      routinely asked for ID.

      Counterfeit/Fake IDs
      Fake, borrowed and/or altered IDs were not uncommon as a means to obtain
      alcohol. Borrowing someone else’s ID or using an older sibling’s expired
      driver’s licence were two of the most frequent techniques reported. Most had
      learned that photos on driver’s licences were often so bad that they could look
      like almost anyone. Participants believed that most licensees don’t scrutinize
      the picture but only check the dates. If the lighting is poor or there is a
      line-up, just about any ID will be accepted. Some participants were of the
      opinion that licensees didn’t care if the ID you presented was any good, just
      so long as you had something to show them.

      Virtually everyone knew of someone who had attempted to alter their driver’s
      licence so as to make it appear that they were older. Although in Pennsylvania
      the date of the person’s 21st birthday is marked in red on the top of the front
      of the license, this marking is apparently easily removed. Altering the birth
      date was more complicated but could be done successfully. Some indicated that
      you could pay someone to do it for you.

      Most participants knew where to obtain a counterfeit or forged ID.
      Entrepreneurs with equipment similar to that at state licensing bureaus
      apparently made regular visits to college campuses to sell their wares. For a
      price, these operators would produce a professional-looking driver’s license
      (usually from a state other than Pennsylvania) with picture and lamination. The
      internet was also a rich source of counterfeit IDs. In fact, a quick search
      revealed thousands of sites where one could obtain a counterfeit ID. Females in
      the groups were much more likely than males to own a fake ID. Several
      participants spontaneously produced an altered or counterfeit license to show
      the group.

      Many servers were confident that they could spot a fake or altered ID almost
      immediately. Some had difficulty believing that a counterfeit license could be
      so good as to avoid detection.

      The MinorChecker®
      The moderator introduced the MinorChecker® by passing around copies of a sheet
      describing the operation and purpose of the device. During the first set of
      focus groups, prior to the implementation of the MinorChecker® in York, none of
      the young participants were aware of it. Several of the servers had heard about
      the card reader system through the media, industry newsletters, or trade shows.

      Virtually every young participant initially perceived the card
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        The MinorChecker®
        The moderator introduced the MinorChecker® by passing around copies of a sheet
        describing the operation and purpose of the device. During the first set of
        focus groups, prior to the implementation of the MinorChecker® in York, none of
        the young participants were aware of it. Several of the servers had heard about
        the card reader system through the media, industry newsletters, or trade shows.

        Virtually every young participant initially perceived the card reader as a
        genuine threat to their ability to obtain alcohol. Being technologically savvy,
        they were fearful that the magnetic stripe on their license contained more
        information than it does and that the card reader might automatically pass the
        information on to authorities which would precipitate sanctions. If they saw
        the device in a establishment, they said they would not take a chance and would
        leave immediately. The deterrent value of the system was readily apparent.

        Several young participants were convinced that someone would eventually find a
        means to circumvent or fool the system. Indeed, it took only a few minutes for
        them to think of several potential (but not necessarily feasible or successful)
        ways to defeat the reader.

        The licensees and servers were generally in favour of this type of card reader
        system. They were, however, skeptical about the ability of the card reader
        system to perform as claimed. Some had seen a demonstration of the device and
        reported it was inconsistent and unreliable. Moreover, the cost was seen as
        prohibitive. If it wasn’t mandatory to have one, the young people would simply
        find those places that didn’t have one.

        On a positive note, servers thought the mere presence of the card reader would
        discourage minors from attempting to purchase alcohol at their establishment.
        Having one was also seen as a way to get the Liquor Control Board “off their
        backs”. Some recognized that the device would pay for itself if it prevented
        even a single fine for serving a minor.

        Second Set of Focus Groups
        The purpose of the second set of focus groups was to provide an indication of
        the nature and extent of changes in the thoughts, opinions, and professed
        practices of the target populations over the period of time the MinorCheckers®
        were in place. The structure of the sessions and topics discussed were the same
        as in the first set of focus groups with the exception that more time was
        allocated to a discussion of issues surrounding the use of the card reader
        system for checking IDs.

        For the most part, there were no striking differences in the discussion about
        alcohol issues between the first and second set of focus groups. However, in
        the second set of focus groups, there was greater recognition of the card
        reader system among both young participants and servers. Interestingly, young
        participants in Altoona (the control community) were considerably better
        informed about the MinorChecker® than young participants in either York or
        Williamsport. At least half of all young participants who were aware of the
        system could name an establishment that had one. There remained a fear that the
        device would obtain more information about the individual than actually was
        encoded on the card. There was continued recognition of its general deterrent
        value.

        On the other hand, young participants expressed a greater level of confidence
        in their potential to overcome or circumvent the system. In fact, some
        suggested that the system might ease their ability to purchase alcohol with
        someone else’s ID because servers would come to rely on the system and not
        bother to check the picture.

        Despite their fear of the device, underage participants generally believed that
        it would not have a large impact on their access to alcohol for a number of
        reasons:

        retailers would not spend the money to obtain the device;
        retailers might use it initially but would ease off with time;
        it would not read out-of-state licenses;
        bars and package stores would be reluctant to use it because it would scare
        away customers who were of legal age;
        it would not read old, worn-out or scratched cards;
        it would take too long; and
        most places weren’t interested in checking too closely anyway.
        Among the servers who participated in this second set of focus groups, there
        emerged two relatively distinct groups - a small number who focused on the
        benefits of the system and a larger group who focused on its limitations. The
        major benefits of the system were:

        the powerful deterrent effect on attempts to purchase alcohol by minors;
        the potential to reduce fines for serving minors; and
        the security offered by a machine that determines the validity of the ID
        presented.
        The primary limitations noted were:

        the perception of the extreme cost of the device;
        the perception that it was unreliable;
        the recognition that someone will eventually find a way to circumvent it;
        the perception that it takes too long to check an ID using the device;
        the belief that “we don’t need it” because their own ability to spot underage
        and fake IDs is virtually foolproof; and
        the notion that they were far too busy most of the time to check everyone.
        A few servers indicated that they had a MinorChecker® unit in their
        establishments. Most said it was used only sporadically. They believed that
        simply looking at the ID card was faster and just as accurate as the machine.
        Besides, the machine didn’t read all cards and you had to check the picture
        anyway. Essentially, the MinorChecker® was unnecessary and inconvenient.

        Summary of Focus Group Findings
        Drinking is common among those under 21 years of age.
        Most underage drinking occurs in private.
        Public drinking (in bars) is common among older subgroups but is seen as
        risky.
        Young people seem to know where, when and how to purchase alcohol.
        Most underage purchases involve borrowed ID or no ID.
        Altered or forged IDs are less commonplace but most young people are aware of
        where and how to obtain a fake ID.
        Awareness of the MinorChecker® system was considerably greater among youth in
        the second set of focus groups - i.e., following implementation of the system
        in York.
        Young participants expressed a general fear of the card reader system for
        checking ID but were confident it would not prove to be a serious barrier to
        their attempts to obtain alcohol.
        Servers were split in terms of their opinions about the value of the card
        reader system: some perceived the system to be expensive, unreliable and
        redundant; others immediately saw the potential benefits of the system to
        assist in their efforts to prevent sales to minors.
        3.2.2 Licensee Interviews
        During the period in which the MinorChecker® units were deployed in York,
        informal discussions were held periodically with licensees to gauge their
        acceptance of the technology, and to determine problems with its use, perceived
        benefits, pattern of use, as well as any other observations about the system.
        At the conclusion of the study, semi-structured interviews were held with a
        number of licensees who had participated in the project.

        To a large extent, the interviews confirmed what had become apparent during the
        focus groups - i.e., there appeared to be two distinct groups with opposite
        views on the value of the card reader system.

        The first group was enthusiastic about the system. They saw it as an extremely
        useful and powerful tool. They used it regularly and often. Some indicated that
        on busy nights, they found it easier to set it up at the door and check
        everyone as they entered. It was apparent, though, that most did not use it all
        the time. After an initial period of frequent use, many simply used it as
        a &#
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          The first group was enthusiastic about the system. They saw it as an extremely
          useful and powerful tool. They used it regularly and often. Some indicated that
          on busy nights, they found it easier to set it up at the door and check
          everyone as they entered. It was apparent, though, that most did not use it all
          the time. After an initial period of frequent use, many simply used it as
          a “backup” to check those IDs about which they weren’t completely sure. Even
          with the device at hand, many preferred to rely on their own judgement and only
          use the card reader as a second opinion or to print a proof of age declaration
          when they were uncertain. Using the MinorChecker® was often viewed as an extra
          step in the process of checking IDs. Unless there was some question about the
          ID presented, many simply preferred to rely on their own judgement.

          Several licensees suggested that the card reader system should be mandatory.
          This would not only provide a level playing field for all licensees but would
          serve as a general deterrent to all young people. These licensees were
          convinced of the benefits of the MinorChecker® system for their own
          establishment but could also appreciate the societal value of a universal
          implementation of the system.

          At the conclusion of the study, several licensees had arranged to purchase or
          lease the MinorChecker® system and continued to use it regularly. One purchased
          a card reader system from another manufacturer. Obviously, these licensees were
          convinced of the value of the system.

          The second group was highly skeptical about the value of the MinorChecker®
          system. A common comment was that the system was too expensive. Many licensees
          said they simply could not afford to pay for such an expensive device -
          especially one that did not generate revenue. (Left unspoken was the notion
          that the purpose of the device was to limit their revenue by preventing sales
          to minors!). Although a few understood that the price of the MinorChecker® was
          comparable to the fine for serving minors, they believed the risk to be
          relatively low and they were willing to take their chances using their own
          method for checking IDs as they saw fit.

          There was also a common perception that the MinorChecker® did not work
          properly. Several licensees had experienced the situation where a card could
          not be read. This could have been the result of a damaged or corrupted magnetic
          stripe. More common was the incomplete scan, whereby not all fields on the
          magnetic stripe were read. This causes the “Yes/No” lights on the device to
          blink alternately. (Simply pressing the “Yes” button would initiate printing of
          the partial data.). A damaged or corrupted magnetic stripe could prevent a
          license from being read completely. Even dirt on the card could prevent a
          complete scan. Counterfeit licenses would also be unlikely to have any
          information coded on the magnetic stripe. Many of these difficulties are easily
          overcome, and the solutions were addressed in training as well as in the user’s
          manual supplied with each unit. Nevertheless, a number of licensees maintained
          the perception that the device didn’t work.

          It was noted by many participating licensees that the device was unable to read
          licenses from all states. Not all states have a magnetic stripe on their
          drivers’ licenses and some that have a stripe do not code the information in a
          manner that can be read by the MinorChecker®. Although some licensees indicated
          that many college students come from out of state, the vast majority of their
          customers were from Pennsylvania. Nevertheless, a software upgrade was provided
          to all licensees that allowed the MinorChecker® to read licenses from 18 states
          plus the province of Ontario.

          Perhaps most disturbing were comments from licensees to the effect that they
          didn’t need the system and that they were far too busy to check all IDs
          thoroughly. The degree of confidence many licensees/servers had in their own
          ability to spot underage, altered and counterfeit IDs was most likely
          overstated and unfounded. It can be a challenging task for even the most
          experienced server. There are numerous opportunities to miss something when
          checking IDs. For example, none of the servers indicated that they ever checked
          for an expired license, yet young people indicated that using an old (i.e.,
          expired) licence of a sibling or friend was a common approach for obtaining
          alcohol.

          The fact that servers indicated that they were often too busy to check all IDs
          suggests that they aren’t particularly concerned about serving minors and/or
          they believe the card reader will take more time rather than streamlining the
          process.

          In visiting licensees participating in the project, it was apparent that a
          small number had little interest in using the card reader system. In some
          establishments the device was not in sight - even relegated to a back room. One
          licensee even suggested that he agreed to accept the device as a means to keep
          the PLCB “off his case”.

          Summary of Findings from Licensee Interviews
          Among licensees who participated in the study, there were two distinct groups -
          those who were skeptical about the value of the card reader system, and those
          who were enthusiastic about it.
          Even among the enthusiasts, the MinorChecker® was often used as a back-up to
          their own judgement about a particular individual and the ID presented, and/or
          to print a declaration of age.
          Price, reliability and time required were perceived as the main limitations of
          the system.
          Many of the skeptics were confident that their own ability to identify underage
          persons and altered or counterfeit ID was as good as, or better than, the card
          reader system.
          3.2.3 MinorChecker® Records
          The MinorChecker® devices used in the study recorded information from every
          card swiped - name, address, birthdate, license expiry date, state - as well as
          the date and time of the transaction and the result - e.g., of legal age,
          underage, license expired. Every month or two, a project assistant visited
          participating licensees to download the data from the MinorChecker® units.
          These data were used to provide objective information about the frequency of
          use of the devices to check IDs, the characteristics of the persons who were
          asked for ID (sex, age, state of residence), and the result of the transaction
          (e.g., valid, underage, expired).

          Over the course of the implementation period, over 50,000 transactions were
          recorded. In reviewing the dataset, it was apparent that there were numerous
          duplicate records resulting from the same card being swiped several times in
          rapid succession. In most cases, this appeared to be the result of the server
          swiping the same card repeatedly in order to read all the data on the magnetic
          stripe. (In virtually all cases, sufficient data were read on the first swipe
          to determine the person’s age and expiry date of the license.) Hence, it was
          necessary to purge these multiple records leaving only one valid record for the
          individual. In addition, when a device was first installed, licensees typically
          tested the device and taught their employees how to use it by swiping their own
          licenses several times. These records, along with those known to be from
          project staff, were generally easy to identify and were deleted. The
          MinorChecker® unit could also be used to check the ID of persons wishing to
          purchase cigarettes. Because the minimum age for the purchase of tobacco in
          Pennsylvania is 18, these records also had to be purged. After removing these
          records, the dataset consisted of 36,584 records.

          Each record represents an attempt to purchase alcohol where the server asked
          for
          • Gość: Normals Re: 3.0 Evaluation IP: 195.94.207.* 19.11.02, 12:11

            Each record represents an attempt to purchase alcohol where the server asked
            for ID and used the MinorChecker® unit to determine the person’s age and the
            authenticity of the license presented. It should be noted that the
            MinorChecker® records do not present an exhaustive list of every attempt to
            purchase alcohol by a young person. Not included are attempts to purchase
            where: no ID was asked for or presented, service was refused without asking for
            ID; something other than a driver’s license was presented; the server did not
            use the MinorChecker® to check the ID; or the ID either had no information
            recorded on the magnetic stripe or the information could not be read.

            For the most part, the MinorChecker® records provide information about the
            people who were asked for ID when they attempted to purchase alcohol. The
            highly objective nature of the data may, however, give rise to a greater degree
            of confidence in the findings than is necessarily warranted. This is a result
            of the implicit assumption that the license actually belonged to the person
            presenting it as identification. As evidenced during the focus groups, this may
            not necessarily be the case. If the license was borrowed (or perhaps stolen),
            the demographic information recorded by the MinorChecker® would not be in
            concordance with that of the person attempting to purchase alcohol. Hence, some
            caution is warranted in reviewing the MinorChecker® records.

            The records also do not indicate whether or not alcohol was provided to the
            individual whose license was swiped. It would be expected that no alcohol would
            be served to persons where the MinorChecker® revealed an underage person or an
            expired license. However, the server may also have refused service to someone
            who presented a valid license but questioned whether the license actually
            belonged to the individual.

            Frequency of Use
            As indicated previously, there were 36,584 valid records from the MinorChecker®
            units over the study period. Figure 1 shows the monthly distribution of the
            number of cards scanned. Initial use of the device increased to a peak of
            approximately 2,000 scans per month and then decreased to a low of 700 one year
            after installation. Efforts to encourage use of the device were redoubled,
            including another set of RAMP sessions for licensees. Use of the device
            increased but the number of scans again began to decrease several months later.

            Figure 1:
            Number of Cards Scanned by Month and Year

            d

            This monthly pattern of use suggests waning interest in the use of the device
            over time. Efforts to increase use were successful but only for a limited time.
            This pattern might reflect the comments of servers in the focus groups who
            indicated that as they became familiar with the MinorChecker® they did not use
            it all the time but rather used it as a back-up when they were not sure or when
            they simply wanted to print a copy of the declaration of age form. This pattern
            might also suggest a deterrent impact of the device. With regular use, underage
            customers avoid establishments where there is a high likelihood of being
            carded. Hence, there are fewer young people frequenting the establishments that
            had the device.

            State
            The vast majority of all licenses scanned were from Pennsylvania (i.e., 95.7%).
            Licenses from twenty-one other states plus the province of Ontario were
            recorded, the most frequent being Maryland, representing 3.3% of all records.

            Day of Week
            Use of the MinorChecker® was lowest on Sunday (5.1% of records) and increased
            throughout the week. Friday and Saturday had the greatest frequency of use with
            26.9% and 29.7%, respectively.

            Time of Day
            Figure 2 shows the percent of MinorChecker® records according to time of day.
            As might be expected, the MinorChecker® was used most frequently during the
            evening hours - i.e., between 8 PM and midnight (47.1% of all records). The
            next most common time of use was between 4 PM and 7:59 PM (31.9%), followed by
            the noon to 3:59 PM period (9.9%). About 8% of all cards were scanned after
            midnight.

            Figure 2:
            Time Distribution of Cards Scanned

            d

            Age
            Figure 3 displays the age distribution from the MinorChecker® records. Licenses
            indicating an age of 21 were the most frequently recorded, representing 38.2%
            of all records. The frequency of recorded scans decreased as age increased.
            Extremely few (1.5%) records indicated someone under 21 years of age.

            Figure 3:
            Age Distribution from Cards Scanned

            d

            As indicated previously, the age distribution is derived from the date of birth
            recorded on the driver’s licence and may not necessarily correspond with the
            age of the person presenting the license. Apparently, borrowing a license is a
            relatively common means used by young people to purchase alcohol. To the extent
            that this occurs, the age distribution presented in Figure 3 may misrepresent
            the age of persons attempting to purchase alcohol.

            Age and Sex
            About two-thirds (67.5%) of all cards scanned belonged to males. Figure 4
            displays the age distribution separately for males and females. The overall
            pattern is similar for both males and females. However, the proportion of males
            is higher among those age 21 and 22 whereas the proportion of females is
            slightly higher among those 16 to 20 years of age and those 23 and over

            Minors
            In Figures 3 and 4, it is apparent that relatively few (i.e., 1.5% or 562) of
            the cards scanned revealed a person to be under 21 years of age. Although some
            might expect that a system designed to detect underage drinkers would find a
            large number of minors, it is in fact surprising that the system revealed so
            many potential purchasers to be under 21. It is not particularly obvious why
            someone under 21 years of age would present their license as proof of age when
            it would reveal them to be under the legal minimum purchase age. One
            possibility is that some young people believed the server would not check the
            license closely and that simply presenting the license might be sufficient to
            convince the server that they were of legal age. Another possibility is that an
            attempt had been made to alter the information on the face of the license to
            make it appear as though the bearer was at least 21. By reading the information
            from the magnetic stripe on the back of license, the MinorChecker® revealed the
            true age of the individual.

            Figure 4:
            Sex and Age Distribution from Cards Scanned

            d

            Examination of the date underage licenses were scanned revealed that almost
            half were identified during the first six months of the program. This suggests
            that young people may have become aware of the MinorChecker® system and its
            ability to detect altered licenses and, therefore, discontinued using such
            cards in their attempts to purchase alcohol.

            Expired Licenses
            Approximately 1.2% of MinorChecker® records revealed an expired license.
            Undoubtedly, some of these were the result of a failure to renew one’s license
            in a timely manner. Indeed, college students living away from home might not
            have received notice of the need for renewal or were unable to return to their
            home state to renew. Nevertheless, there remains the possibility that an
            underage person had obtained the old, expired license of an older sibling or
            friend and was using it to purchase alcohol.

            During the interviews with licensees, it was noted that very few ever checked
            the expiry date prior to having the MinorChecker® installed. Some were not
            aware of the possibility that an expired license might be used by another
            person in an attempt to purchase alcohol.

            3.2.4 Discussion
            The greatest challenge in implementing the MinorChecker® program was getting
            licensees to use the device consistently. Although ma
    • Gość: Normals Re: 3.0 Evaluation IP: 195.94.207.* 19.11.02, 12:12

      3.2.4 Discussion
      The greatest challenge in implementing the MinorChecker® program was getting
      licensees to use the device consistently. Although many accepted the device,
      some remained skeptical of its value and preferred to rely on their own skill
      and judgement in checking IDs. Even among those who were enthusiastic about the
      card reader system, several used the device primarily as a back-up to their own
      judgement or as a means to complete the Declaration of Age card (PLCB-931)
      quickly and easily. The technology works well; its limitation lies primarily
      among those who are expected to use it.

      The MinorChecker® system appears to have deterrent value. In the focus groups,
      young people indicated they would avoid any alcohol outlet that they knew was
      using the card reader system. Several licensees indicated that they had
      experienced situations where young people have asked them not to scan their
      licenses with the MinorChecker® unit. Others were reported to have simply
      walked away when they saw the MinorChecker® unit.

      3.3 Outcome Evaluation
      The primary purpose of the outcome evaluation was to determine the extent to
      which the card reader system had an impact on access to alcohol by young people
      and the incidence of alcohol-related problems among youth. The evaluation
      design involved a comparison among three communities: York, which had the
      MinorChecker® units and an awareness program about underage drinking;
      Williamsport, which had the awareness program only; and Altoona, which served
      as the control community - i.e., no MinorChecker® units and no awareness
      program. Several measures were used to determine the impact of the program: a
      compliance check; charges for alcohol-related offenses among youth (including
      DUI); and alcohol-involved traffic crashes.

      3.3.1 Compliance Check
      To determine the extent to which the implementation of the MinorChecker® units
      changed the degree of difficulty young people experienced in attempting to
      purchase alcohol, a compliance check was conducted in all three communities
      prior to the implementation of the card readers (i.e., March/April 1998) and
      again 18 months later (i.e., October/November 1999). This involved having young-
      looking individuals attempt to purchase alcohol at a variety of licensed
      establishments in each community. The purposes of the compliance check were:

      To determine the frequency with which licensees asked for identification from
      young-looking patrons;
      To determine the frequency with which licensees were willing to sell alcohol to
      young-looking patrons without checking their ID (whether it was asked for or
      not);
      To determine the extent to which the awareness program and the installation of
      the MinorChecker® units had an impact on the frequency of asking for ID; and,
      To assess the degree of scrutiny given licenses that were presented as proof of
      legal age.
      Method
      Four college students (two males, two females) were hired as “patrons” to
      conduct the compliance checks. Each was at least 21 years of age and had a
      youthful appearance such that it was not obvious that they were of legal age to
      purchase alcohol. None of these young people resided in any of the target
      communities nor did they frequent any licensed establishment in these
      communities.

      Prior to the start of each compliance check operation, a training session was
      held for the hired patrons. This session outlined the goals and objectives of
      the exercise and the procedures to be followed. Role-playing was used to have
      patrons become familiar with a number of different scenarios. The young patrons
      were then accompanied to a nearby establishment to practise the procedures,
      including the recording of data. Each attempt to purchase was then discussed
      with the entire group.

      Patrons worked in mixed sex pairs. While in the field, each pair was
      accompanied by a local official from PLCB. This was to ensure the safety of the
      hired patrons as well as to assist them in locating all targeted establishments
      in each community.

      Visits were made to licensed establishments between the hours of 3 PM and 10 PM
      on Friday and Saturday nights. At off-premise establishments, each member of
      the pair was to enter the premises and attempt to purchase an alcoholic
      beverage. Hired patrons did not enter the establishment together but separated
      their visits by approximately five minutes. At on-premise establishments, the
      pair would enter and sit together at the same table. Each was to order an
      alcoholic beverage.

      The key variable recorded for each attempted purchase was whether or not they
      were asked for proof of age. If they were not asked, the purchase was
      completed. If asked, hired patrons were to alternate between presenting their
      driver’s license and stating they left it in the car. If ID was presented,
      patrons were to take note of how closely it was examined and whether or not the
      license was scanned in the MinorChecker®.

      Licensed establishments in Williamsport and Altoona were selected using the
      same criteria as were used in York to identify establishments for installation
      of the MinorChecker® units - i.e., they were known or believed to cater to a
      younger crowd and/or were known to have had problems associated with serving
      alcohol to minors.

      Results
      In the first study (in March/April 98), 245 attempts to purchase were made at
      140 licensed establishments - 49 in York, 52 in Williamsport and 39 in Altoona.
      In the second study (in October/November 99), 203 attempts to purchase were
      made at 131 licensed establishments - 49 in York, 44 in Williamsport, and 39 in
      Altoona. Several other establishments were on the list to be visited; but for a
      variety of reasons no attempt to purchase was made. For example, in some cases,
      the establishment was either closed or there was a line outside indicating that
      the establishment was at full capacity. In other cases, it would have been
      inappropriate for one or both to enter. Hired patrons were instructed not to
      enter any establishment they perceived might pose a threat to their personal
      safety.

      Figure 5 displays the percent of attempts to purchase in which ID was not
      requested separately for each of the two compliance check operations according
      to community. Prior to the implementation of the MinorChecker® units, hired
      patrons were able to purchase alcohol without being asked for ID on 16% of all
      attempts. The likelihood of being asked for ID differed by community. In York
      and Williamsport, patrons were not asked for ID about 20% of the time; in
      Altoona patrons were able to purchase alcohol without presenting ID on only 5%
      of all attempts (X2 = 8.35, p(.02). It is not known why licensees in Altoona
      were more likely to check for proof of age than in the other two communities.

      Following the implementation of the MinorChecker® units in York, hired patrons
      were able to purchase alcohol without being asked for ID on 48% of all
      attempts, considerably higher than during the previous compliance check (X2 =
      33.8, p(.01). The differences in the rate of checking for ID did not differ
      among the three communities (X2 = 5.8, p).05).

      Figure 5:
      Percent of Attempts to Purchase
      Where ID Was Not Requested

      d

      Additional Findings
      Additional data collected during the compliance check operation provided
      interesting information about the factors that might influence a licensee’s
      decision whether or not to ask for proof of age. For example, hired patrons
      were most likely to be asked for ID at a beer distributor (81.8%) or PLCB store
      (80%) and least likely to be asked at a “six-pack” shop (69.3%) or when
      attempting to purchase a drink in a bar (58.1%).

      The likelihood of being asked for ID did not differ according to the estimated
      age
      • Gość: Normals Re: 3.0 Evaluation IP: 195.94.207.* 19.11.02, 12:13

        The likelihood of being asked for ID did not differ according to the estimated
        age of the server. Female servers were, however, less likely than male servers
        to ask for ID and were less likely to ask male patrons than female patrons.

        Hired patrons observed a MinorChecker® in 46 establishments - 41 in York; 4 in
        Williamsport; and 2 in Altoona. On 35% of these occasions, the MinorChecker®
        was used by the server to check the ID of the patron.

        Interestingly, on 8.5% of attempts to purchase in which the server asked for
        ID, the hired patrons were able to complete the purchase without presenting ID.
        Hired patrons merely responded by saying they forgot their ID in the car and
        would have left without making a purchase if the server had not indicated that
        it was not necessary. It is, however, somewhat curious as to why a server would
        bother to ask for ID but not follow through.

        For accounting purposes, hired patrons were asked to retain the receipt for all
        purchases. On 21 of 119 (17.6%) of purchases where ID was not requested,
        patrons noted that the server did not provide a receipt. On every occasion that
        ID was shown, a receipt was provided. Speculation on the reasons for this
        oversight might lead one to suggest that servers are attempting to protect
        themselves by not providing evidence of where the alcohol was purchased in the
        event that the customer was caught with the product.

        Discussion
        It was expected that the compliance check would reveal a higher rate of patrons
        being asked for ID in York relative to the other communities following the
        implementation of the MinorChecker®. It was assumed that the awareness program
        combined with the MinorChecker® would lead to a systematic change in the
        approach to checking young patrons for ID that would be reflected in the
        frequency with which they asked young-looking customers for proof of age.
        Clearly, this did not occur. In fact, the rate of checking for ID actually
        decreased in York, as well as in the other two communities.

        To some extent, the unexpected increase in the frequency with which the hired
        patrons were able to purchase alcohol without being asked for ID may be a
        function of the season in which the compliance checks were done. The first
        check was conducted in the fall; the second was conducted 18 months later in
        the spring. In the fall, licensees might have been more vigilant about checking
        young-looking patrons for ID as a result of the influx of new college students
        at the beginning of the new school year. By spring, licensees might have been
        more comfortable about having discouraged underage customers earlier in the
        year and became less likely to check for ID.

        The increase in the frequency with which hired patrons were able to purchase
        alcohol in York without being asked for ID may have been a function of the
        degree of comfort afforded licensees with the MinorChecker®. Simply having the
        device available might have led licensees into a false sense of security,
        believing it deterred underage customers from even attempting to purchase. This
        would not, however, explain the similar changes in the frequency of requesting
        ID in the other two communities.

        Alternatively, there may be nothing systematic about the approach licensees use
        in checking for ID and the results reflect random fluctuation. The frequency of
        checking for ID may vary as a function of the attitudes and perceptions of
        particular employees, the number of customers in the store at the time, the
        financial state of the business - factors over which we had no control in the
        present study.

        The results may also be related to the characteristics of the hired patrons
        used in the two compliance check operations. Although there was no reason to
        believe that the appearance of the hired patrons differed substantially in the
        two operations, there may have been other less obvious differences such as
        poise, confidence and composure. Only one of the patrons was the same for both
        compliance check operations. Although this person was 23 years of age at the
        time of the second compliance check, she maintained a very youthful appearance
        and was, indeed, the patron most frequently asked for ID.

        3.3.2 Alcohol-Related Offenses
        Data on alcohol-related criminal and traffic offenses were obtained from the
        Administrative Office of Pennsylvania Courts Computerized Statewide District
        Justice System for the years 1995 through 1999. By far, the majority of these
        offenses were for underage purchase, consumption, or possession of alcohol
        (94%); only 4% were for drinking-driving offenses. The number of charges for
        other offenses, such as misrepresentation of age, selling or furnishing alcohol
        to minors, and carrying false ID was negligible. The data were obtained for the
        three counties that included the communities participating in the study - Blair
        (Altoona), Lycoming (Williamsport), and York (York).

        From the data available, we selected a period corresponding to that during
        which the card readers were in operation in York (from April 1998 to December
        1999) and a comparable period prior to the implementation of the card readers
        (from April 1996 through December 1997). Non-sequential time periods were
        selected to ensure that any potential seasonal variation in charging practices
        did not have an influence on the findings.

        Table 1 displays the number of charges for underage purchase, possession or
        consumption of alcohol for the three counties during the 21-month periods
        before and during the implementation of the card readers in York. Population
        estimates of 15 to 20 year olds were obtained for each community for the years
        1997 and 2000. These were used to standardize the number of charges per 1,000
        residents in the affected age group.

        Table 1
        Number and Rate of Charges for Underage Purchase, Possession or Consumption of
        Alcohol in the Three Counties Before and After the Implementation of the Card
        Reader Units

        PRE
        POST

        County
        Charges1
        Pop 15-202
        Rate per 1,000
        Charges
        Pop 15-20
        Rate per 1,000

        York
        834
        10,134
        82.3
        1,354
        10,689
        126.7

        Williamsport
        650
        5,336
        121.8
        732
        5,319
        137.6

        Altoona
        595
        6,846
        86.9
        673
        6,981
        96.4


        Charges are for the entire county.
        Population figures are for 15 to 20 year olds for the city only.
        Prior to the implementation of the card readers, the number of charges was
        comparable in Lycoming County (i.e., Williamsport) and Blair County (i.e.,
        Altoona) but was considerably higher in York County. To a large extent, the
        higher number of charges in York was related to the larger population in York.
        When the number of charges were standardized by the number of 15 to 20 year
        olds in the population of the target communities in each county5 the number of
        charges per 1,000 population was comparable in York and Altoona but was
        considerably higher in Williamsport.

        Following the implementation of the card readers, the number and rate of
        charges increased dramatically (i.e., over 50%) in York county. Smaller
        increases (i.e., about 13%) were evident in the other two counties.

        Figure 6 shows the number of offenses in each county by quarter from 1995
        through 1999. It is evident in the figure that the number of charges for
        underage purchase, possession or consumption is highly variable. Following the
        implementation of the MinorChecker® units in York (shown as a vertical line at
        the end of the first quarter of 1998), there was a substantial increase in
        charges in that community, but not in the other two communities.

        Figure 6:
        Number of Charges for Underage Possession of Alcohol by Quarter

        d

        Table 2 displays the number and rate of charges for drinking-driving charges in
        each of the three counties during the 21-month periods before and dur
      • Gość: Normals - Eksperd Re: 3.0 Evaluation IP: 195.94.207.* 19.11.02, 12:15

        Figure 6 shows the number of offenses in each county by quarter from 1995
        through 1999. It is evident in the figure that the number of charges for
        underage purchase, possession or consumption is highly variable. Following the
        implementation of the MinorChecker® units in York (shown as a vertical line at
        the end of the first quarter of 1998), there was a substantial increase in
        charges in that community, but not in the other two communities.

        Figure 6:
        Number of Charges for Underage Possession of Alcohol by Quarter

        d

        Table 2 displays the number and rate of charges for drinking-driving charges in
        each of the three counties during the 21-month periods before and during the
        implementation of the card readers. Prior to the implementation of the card
        readers, the number and rate of charges were comparable in all three counties.
        Following the implementation of the card readers, the number and rate of
        charges increased dramatically (i.e., over 150%) in York and Altoona. A smaller
        increase (i.e., about 44%) was evident in Williamsport.

        Table 2
        Number and Rate of Charges for Drinking-Driving Offenses Among Persons Under 21
        Years of Age in the Three Counties Before and After the Implementation of the
        Card Reader Units

        PRE
        POST

        County
        Charges1
        Pop 15-202
        Rate per 1,000
        Charges
        Pop 15-20
        Rate per 1,000

        York
        25
        10,134
        2.46
        68
        10,689
        6.36

        Williamsport
        16
        5,336
        3.0
        23
        5,319
        4.32

        Altoona
        18
        6,846
        2.63
        46
        6,981
        6.59


        Charges are for the entire county.
        Population figures are for 15 to 20 year olds for the city only.
        Discussion
        It might be hypothesized that the widespread implementation of the
        MinorChecker® units in York would serve to reduce access to alcohol among
        youth, thereby reducing their likelihood of arrest for underage possession and
        consumption as well as driving after drinking. This, in turn, would lead to a
        reduction in the number of charges for these offenses. If this were the case,
        we would expect to see a reduction in charges in York, less of a reduction in
        Williamsport, and no change in Altoona. This was clearly not the case.

        Alternatively, it might be hypothesized that the device would serve to increase
        the ability to catch offenders so that charges would increase initially. As
        awareness of the devices spread, charges would decline. Figure 6 provides some
        evidence to support this hypothesis. The number of charges for underage
        possession increased immediately following the implementation of the card
        reader units in York and declined somewhat thereafter.

        In examining data on offenses, it is important to recognize that the
        relationships between access to alcohol, drinking behavior and arrests for
        these offenses are neither simple nor direct. Offense data do not necessarily
        reflect the incidence of the behaviour. With these types of offenses, it is
        generally presumed that there are many more transgressions of the law that
        never come to the attention of the police and/or never result in an arrest.
        Hence, offense data generally reveal more about police enforcement activity
        that they do about criminal behavior.

        The increases in the reported incidence of the two offenses shown in Tables 1
        and 2 are most likely attributable to increases in enforcement activity,
        particularly in York. It is not known the extent to which the increased
        vigilance among enforcement agencies may have been attributable to the
        extensive publicity surrounding the implementation of the MinorChecker® units
        throughout the city.

        3.3.3 Alcohol-Related Traffic Crashes
        Data on driver involvement in traffic crashes in the three target communities
        from 1995 through 1999 were obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of
        Transportation. These data included all crashes involving drivers between 16
        and 30 years of age.

        From the data available, we selected a period corresponding to that during
        which the card readers were in operation in York (from April 1998 to December
        1999) and a comparable period prior to the implementation of the card readers
        (from April 1996 through December 1997). Non-sequential time periods were
        selected to ensure that any potential seasonal variation in traffic crashes did
        not have an influence on the findings.

        Alcohol involvement by drivers was reported by the investigating police officer
        in only 5.6% of all crashes. Although police-reported alcohol involvement is
        generally regarded as a sensitive measure (i.e., it reflects true alcohol-
        positive cases), it lacks specificity (i.e., many alcohol-positive cases are
        missed). These missed cases result in an underestimate of the number of alcohol-
        involved crashes.

        To compensate for this under-reporting, a surrogate measure of alcohol
        involvement is often employed. A commonly used surrogate is the number of
        single vehicle nighttime (SVN) crashes (Douglas and Filkins, 1974). A high
        proportion of such crashes have been shown to involve a drinking driver. The
        number of SVN crashes often provides a better estimate of the number of alcohol-
        involved crashes than identified through police reports.

        Figure 7 displays the percent of SVN crashes involving drivers aged 16-20 in
        each community during the periods before and after the implementation of the
        card reader units. (The percent of SVN crashes was used to compare communities
        of different size.)

        Figure 7:
        Percent of SVN Crahses Involving 16-20 Year Old Drivers

        d

        In York, the primary intervention community, there was a 13.1% reduction in the
        proportion of SVN crashes among 16-20 year old drivers. Williamsport
        experienced a 30% reduction and Altoona (the control community) showed a 4.6%
        increase.

        Figure 8 shows the percent of SVN crashes involving 21 to 30 year old drivers
        in each of the three communities before and after the implementation of the
        card readers in York. The availability of alcohol to drivers in this age group
        would not have been affected by the presence of the card readers in York or the
        awareness campaigns in York and Williamsport.

        Figure 8:
        Percent of SVN Crashes Involving 21-30 Year Old Drivers

        d

        Among drivers age 21 to 30 in York, there was a 4% decrease in the proportion
        of SVN crashes. (This contrasts with the 13% decrease among 16 to 20 year old
        drivers shown in Figure 7.) In Williamsport, there was a 13.3% increase in SVN
        crashes among 21-30 year old drivers. (This contrasts with a 30% decrease among
        16 to 20 year old drivers.) In Altoona, 21 to 30 year old drivers experienced a
        20.3% decrease in SVN crashes, compared with a 4.6% increase among 16-20 year
        old drivers.

        Table 3 presents the results of the analysis of the traffic crash data
        separately for each community. The first column of the table shows the time
        period (i.e., before and after implementation of the card readers) and the age
        group (i.e., 16-20 or 21-30) represented in each row. The next two columns list
        the number (and proportion) of non-SVN and SVN crashes, respectively. The ratio
        of SVN to non-SVN crashes is presented in the fourth column. The fifth column
        shows the odds ratio of the after period, relative to the before period,
        followed by the standard error of the odds ratio in the sixth column. The final
        two columns list the 95% confidence intervals for the odds ratio. An interval
        that includes the value 1.0 is not considered statistically significant.

        Table 3
        Comparison of SVN to non-SVN Crashes
        According to Age Group and Community

        YORK non SNV SVN Ratio
        SNV/non SNV Odds-
        Ratio Standard
        Error 95% Conf.
        LL Interval
        UL
        Before
        Age 16-20 198
        (0.79) 54
        (0.21) 0.27
        After
        Age 16-20 241
        (0.81) 55
        (0.19) 0.23 0.84 0.21 0.55 1.27
        Before
        Age 21-30 385
        (0.84) 72
        (0.16) 0.19
        After
        Age 21-30 428
        (0.85) 77
        (0.15) 0.18 0.96 0
        • Gość: Normals - Polak Re: 3.0 Evaluation IP: 195.94.207.* 19.11.02, 12:17


          WILLIAMSPORT non SNV SVN Ratio
          SNV/non SNV Odds-
          Ratio
          vs. Reference Standard
          Error 95% Conf.
          LL Interval
          UL
          Before
          Age 16-20 166
          (0.84) 32
          (0.16) 0.19
          After
          Age 16-20 221 (0.89) 28
          (0.11) 0.13 0.66 0.28 0.38 1.13
          Before
          Age 21-30 216 (0.86) 36
          (0.14) 0.17
          After
          Age 21-30 227
          (0.84) 44
          (0.16) 0.19 1.16 0.24 0.72 1.88
          Ratio of Odds-Ratios 0.57 0.37 0.27 1.17


          ALTOONA non SNV SVN Ratio
          SNV/non SNV Odds-
          Ratio
          vs. Reference Standard
          Error
          of OR 95% Conf.
          LL Interval
          UL
          Before
          Age 16-20 387
          (0.83) 82
          (0.17) 0.21
          After
          Age 16-20 394 (0.82) 88
          (0.18) 0.22 1.05 0.17 0.76 1.47
          Before
          Age 21-30 480
          (0.83) 96
          (0.17) 0.20
          After
          Age 21-30 503
          (0.87) 77
          (0.13) 0.15 0.77 0.17 0.55 1.06
          Ratio of Odds-Ratios 1.38 0.24 0.87 2.19

          As a means to compare the change in the proportion of SVN crashes among 16-20
          year olds to the change in SVN crashes among drivers 21 to 30 years of age, the
          final row in the table for each community presents the ratio of odds ratios,
          along with the 95% confidence interval. This ratio represents the change in SVN
          crashes among 16-20 year old drivers following the introduction of the card
          readers, relative to that among drivers 21 to 30 years of age. An odds ratio
          less than 1.0 indicates a relative reduction in SVN crashes among 16-20 year
          olds; a value greater than 1.0 indicates a relative increase.

          The analysis reveals that SVN crashes among 16-20 year old drivers in York and
          Williamsport decreased relative to 21-30 year old drivers (i.e., odds ratios =
          0.87 and 0.57, respectively) but increased in Altoona (i.e., odds ratio =
          1.38). These changes are consistent with the hypothesized impact of the
          intervention - SVN crashes among 16-20 year old drivers decreased in the
          intervention communities but increased in the control community. However, none
          of these changes was statistically significant.

          Discussion
          It was expected that the implementation of the MinorChecker® units throughout
          the city of York and the introduction of an awareness campaign on underage
          drinking in York and Williamsport would reduce the availability of alcohol to
          young people which would, in turn, have an impact on the number of alcohol-
          involved motor vehicle collisions among the affected age group (i.e., ages 16-
          20) in these communities. The reductions in SVN crashes among 16-20 year old
          drivers in the intervention communities (although not statistically
          significant) were consistent with this hypothesis.

          Although encouraging, these reductions in crashes cannot be unambiguously
          attributed to the implementation of the MinorChecker® program. In fact, the
          magnitude of the decrease in SVN crashes in Williamsport was larger than that
          in York. Given that licensees in Williamsport did not have the card reader
          units and only the awareness program was implemented, the subsequent reduction
          in SVN crashes would be more appropriately attributed to the awareness program
          and not necessarily the card readers. In light of the evidence from the
          compliance check and the charge data, which were not consistent with an impact
          on alcohol availability to young people, it cannot be stated conclusively that
          the implementation of the MinorChecker® program had a systematic impact on
          alcohol-involved road crashes among the target age group.


          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          The establishments named by participants in York served to confirm many of our
          selections for installation of MinorCheckerâ units.
          The population of 15-20 year olds was not available on a county-wide basis.
          Population figures for the communities provide estimates that are most likely
          proportional to the population in the county.
          Continue to 4.0 Discussion and Conclusions

          Back to Table of Contents

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