robisc
21.03.09, 09:50
calkiem niezle, szczegolenie w porownaniu do tego co pisza o problemach innych
The current business environment
After GDP-growth of 4.8% in 2008, forecasts for 2009 now range from zero
growth to 1.7%. During recent
years, Polish growth has been driven by both domestic consumption and exports.
But exports have started
to fall rapidly due to the downturn in demand from EU countries, Poland’s main
export destination. Domestic
consumption remains strong for the time being, but the first signs of a
slowdown are visible.
As a consequence, heavily export-oriented companies in the automotive,
machines, chemicals, construction
materials and furniture sectors are experiencing the biggest problems.
Metals/steels may also come under
extreme pressure this year, due to falling demand, high stock levels from the
second and third quarter of
2008, and a big drop in prices (by 30%).
We are seeing a tightening of credit conditions by banks, especially by
international banks which are
themselves in trouble. As a result, it is extremely difficult for Polish
companies to get new financing and many
are now facing a credit shortage and/or stricter credit terms. Additionally,
many companies have debts in
foreign currencies, and face higher credit risks due to the sharp depreciation
of the zloty, adding to their debt
burden.
The outlook for Poland
In 2008, the number of corporate bankruptcies actually fell by 8% to 411, but
this year we will see an
increase as reflected in the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) indicator. From
January to December 2008
the EDF for Poland rose sharply by 188 basis points. In January 2009 alone
four companies listed at the
Warsaw Stock Exchange have filed for an out-of-court agreement with their
creditors. Since the beginning of
2009 we have seen alarming reports about steep increases of payment delays.
We expect that companies that do not react quickly to the changing environment
by reducing fixed costs, redirecting
export, reducing stocks and lowering or restructuring indebtedness will face
liquidity problems.
But there are also some opportunities in the current environment: Large EU
funds are earmarked for
infrastructure improvements, providing good prospects for the construction
sector. Additionally Poland
remains a competitive and attractive destination, with low labour costs, for
Western European businesses
looking to outsource.
global.atradius.com/images/stories/Market%20monitor/MM_ENGLISH%20February%202009%201.pdf
