komentator
28.08.04, 16:32
USA to podobno wzorzec ekonomiczny dla EU. Podobno USA to rozwoj a
EU stagnacja. A co mowia liczby?
Pisze o tym Economist:
Of course, everybody knows that America grew a lot faster than Europe over
the last 10 years. But the figures, in terms of GDP/person are very close -
2.1% per year for America against 1.8% for Europe. Take out Germany - which
has struggled with absorbing its formerly communist cousins from the East -
and the two regions are exactly the same.
And productivity? "A study by Kevin Daly, an economist at Goldman Sachs,
finds that, after adjusting for differences in their economic cycles, trend
productivity growth in the euro area has been slightly faster than that in
America over the past 10 years," says the Economist.
What about jobs? America is the greatest jobs machine on the planet, right?
Again, excluding Germany, "jobs in the rest of the euro area grew at exactly
the same pace as in America," concludes the Economist. "And since 1997 more
jobs have been created in the euro area as a whole; total employment has
risen by 8%, compared with 6% in America."
And get this..."GDP per hour in Germany and France now exceeds that in
America." It's true that Americans earn more and spend more than
Europeans...but they work a lot more hours.
"Compare France with America," the Economist invites. "Between 1970 and 2000,
America's GDP per hour worked rose by 38% and average hours worked per person
rose by 26%, so GDP per person increased 64%. French GDP per hour rose by a
more impressive 83%, but hours worked per person fell 23%.
"Europeans simply enjoy leisure more," the Economist concludes.
But what about the 'recovery?' Hasn't it been much more vigorous in America
than in Europe?
Well, only on the surface. Spiked up by the biggest dose of fiscal and
monetary
juice in history, America's economy has slightly outpaced Europe's. But the
figures are hard to compare. Europe calculates GDP growth more conservatively
than America...and understates the truth, rather than overstates it, as they
do
at the Labor Department. More importantly, America's jolt of growth has come
at
great cost. While Europe got no net stimulus, America has gotten enough to
give
it the shakes.
"Super-lax policies of the past few years have left behind large economic and
financial imbalances that cast doubt on the sustainability of America's
growth," says the Economist. "From a position of surplus before 2000, the
structural budget deficit (including state and local governments) now stands
at almost 5% of GDP, three times as big as that in the euro area. America has
a current-account deficit of 5% of GDP, while the euro area has a small
surplus. American households now save less than 2% of their disposable
income; the savings rate in the euro area stands at a comfortable 12%. Total
household debt in America mounts to 84% of GDP, compared with only 50% in the
euro zone."
Barely has the 21st century begun and America finds itself in a remarkable
position. It has, what it believes is, the world's most powerful
economy...and the world's most powerful military force. Like the defunct
Soviet Union, it has a sickle in one hand and a hammer in the other. The
sickle, alas, has an awkward bend in it.
"The U.S. suffers from...structural deficits that will limit the
effectiveness and duration of its crypto-imperial role in the world,"
explains Niall Ferguson. "The first is the nation's growing dependence on
foreign capital to finance excessive private and public consumption. It is
difficult to recall any empire that has long endured after becoming so
dependent on lending from abroad."
But it suffers no deficit of raw power. The hammer - U.S. military might - is
real. Americans are no better or worse than any other race; is it any wonder
they will want to take a whack at someone?
Putting it another way: grubbing for money might be fine for a modest nation
working its way up in the world; is it worthy of a great nation on a roll?
