Rakcja rynkow na wczorajsza napasc wyzwolencza.

kladilak Forbes 04.01.26, 14:53

www.forbes.com/sites/joelshulman/2026/01/03/how-trumps-venezuela-move-could-reshape-the-us-economy/
How Trump’s Venezuela Move Could Reshape The U.S. Economy

ByJoel Shulman,

Contributor.
Dr. Shulman provides expertise on entrepreneurial wealth creation.
Jan 03, 2026, 05:06pm ESTJan 03, 2026, 10:38pm EST
Venezuela State oil industry
Cabimas, Zulia, Venezuela. Oil facilities, along with an oil spill, are seen in Lake Maracaibo. (Photo by: Jose Bula Urrutia/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

One of the most powerful drivers of U.S. stock prices over the next several years may not come from Congress, the Federal Reserve, or artificial intelligence. It may come from Venezuela. Markets are only beginning to understand what just happened. Recent U.S. action in Venezuela under the current Administration has reopened access to the largest oil reserve base on Earth and with it the possibility of a supply side shock that could reshape inflation, interest rates, national security and ultimately U.S. equity valuations.

The initial reaction has focused on politics, sanctions and short-term oil price moves. What has not yet been fully modeled is how a durable shift in global energy supply flows through inflation, Federal Reserve policy, discount rates and stock market multiples. This is not a political argument. It is an economic and market structure argument. If the Administration succeeds in restoring U.S. operational influence over Venezuelan oil production, the implications for the U.S. economy and stock market in 2026 could be profound. This would not be incremental. It would be structural.
Venezuela’s Oil And The Scale Everyone Underestimates

Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. This is not a marginal producer and not a swing field. It is a reserve base large enough to alter global pricing dynamics outright.
PROMOTED

Before discussing valuation, it is important to understand where Venezuela sits relative to the rest of the world.
Global Oil Reserves, Production And Governance
Global Oil Reserves B
Global Oil Reserves Production
EntrepreneurShares LLC
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Two facts stand out immediately. Venezuela ranks first globally by proven reserves. Democracies, meanwhile, tend to dominate production efficiency rather than reserve ownership. The difference is governance, capital discipline, and institutional continuity, not geology.

Once the reserve concentration is understood, the economic scale becomes impossible to ignore.
The $18 Trillion To $45 Trillion Reality

Using a long run oil price range that spans modern cycles, from roughly $60 per barrel to the 2008 peak near $150, the notional in ground value of Venezuelan oil is extraordinary.

At the lower end of that range, 303 billion barrels imply a gross in ground value of roughly $18 trillion.

At the upper end of the range, the same reserve base implies a gross in ground value approaching $45 trillion.

Forbes Daily: Join over 1 million Forbes Daily subscribers and get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday.
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These figures are not discounted cash flow estimates and they are not projections of recoverable profit. They are meant to convey scale.

For perspective, U.S. nominal GDP is roughly $28 to $30 trillion annually. Global nominal GDP is approximately $110 to $120 trillion. That means Venezuela’s proven oil reserves represent roughly 60% to more than 150% of one full year of U.S. economic output, and approximately 15% to over 40% of one year of global GDP, depending on where oil prices sit in the cycle.

Few assets on Earth, public or private, approach this magnitude.

This is why Venezuela is not simply an energy story. It is a national wealth and macroeconomic story.
Venezuela Oil Value Is Equal To Entire Mag 7 Combined

To frame Venezuela’s oil wealth in terms equity investors immediately understand, consider the Magnificent Seven. The combined market capitalization of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla currently totals roughly $18 to $20 trillion, depending on market conditions.

At the low end of long-run oil price assumptions, Venezuela’s proven oil reserves carry a comparable notional in-ground value of approximately $18 trillion. Through a single geopolitical shift, the United States has regained operational influence over a resource base whose conservative value rivals the combined equity value of the seven most dominant companies in the U.S. stock market and arguably the world.

Those same seven companies account for more than 37 percent of the entire S&P 500. That context matters. This is the scale of the asset now re-entering the global supply equation. The comparison is not meant to imply direct monetization or valuation parity. It is meant to convey magnitude. Unlocking even a fraction of Venezuela’s oil capacity has the potential to influence inflation, interest rates, and equity valuations on a scale typically associated with major re-ratings of the most consequential assets in global markets.
Putting $45 Trillion In Global Economic Perspective

Large numbers lose meaning without context. One of the most effective ways to understand the scale of Venezuela’s oil wealth is to compare it to the size of entire national economies.

At peak oil prices, Venezuela’s proven oil reserves carry a gross in ground value of roughly $45 trillion. That figure exceeds the annual economic output of the largest nations on Earth. In fact, it is approximately equal to the combined GDPs of the US and China together.
VE Oil Value vs GDP
Value of Venezuela Oil Reserves vs Global GDP Economies
EntrepreneurShares LLC

Venezuela’s proven oil reserves, valued at peak cycle prices, rival or exceed, the combined annual economic output of the world’s largest, most productive nations.

This comparison does not imply that Venezuela’s oil converts one for one into GDP. It does not. But it illustrates scale. When an asset approaches the economic output of entire continents, even partial unlocking can have outsized macroeconomic effects.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Oil

Oil has never been about ideology, fairness or morality. It has always been about power. The largest oil reserves on Earth are overwhelmingly located in countries with weak institutions, high corruption or authoritarian governance.

The result has been consistent across decades. Capital flees. Infrastructure decays. Production collapses. Global inflation rises. Energy only becomes political once it becomes valuable.

This structural reality explains why energy markets embed a persistent geopolitical risk premium and why removing even part of that risk can have outsized effects on inflation and asset prices.
Entrepreneurial Risk, Leadership And Calculated Bets

Entrepreneurial leaders, whether individuals, companies or countries, sometimes take calculated risks. Some succeed. Some fail. What matters is whether risk is aligned with long term value creation.

For more than forty years, Venezuela’s oil resources were not maximized in a way that benef

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kladilak Forbes 04.01.26, 14:53

www.forbes.com/sites/joelshulman/2026/01/03/how-trumps-venezuela-move-could-reshape-the-us-economy/
How Trump’s Venezuela Move Could Reshape The U.S. Economy

ByJoel Shulman,

Contributor.
Dr. Shulman provides expertise on entrepreneurial wealth creation.
Jan 03, 2026, 05:06pm ESTJan 03, 2026, 10:38pm EST
Venezuela State oil industry
Cabimas, Zulia, Venezuela. Oil facilities, along with an oil spill, are seen in Lake Maracaibo. (Photo by: Jose Bula Urrutia/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

One of the most powerful drivers of U.S. stock prices over the next several years may not come from Congress, the Federal Reserve, or artificial intelligence. It may come from Venezuela. Markets are only beginning to understand what just happened. Recent U.S. action in Venezuela under the current Administration has reopened access to the largest oil reserve base on Earth and with it the possibility of a supply side shock that could reshape inflation, interest rates, national security and ultimately U.S. equity valuations.

The initial reaction has focused on politics, sanctions and short-term oil price moves. What has not yet been fully modeled is how a durable shift in global energy supply flows through inflation, Federal Reserve policy, discount rates and stock market multiples. This is not a political argument. It is an economic and market structure argument. If the Administration succeeds in restoring U.S. operational influence over Venezuelan oil production, the implications for the U.S. economy and stock market in 2026 could be profound. This would not be incremental. It would be structural.
Venezuela’s Oil And The Scale Everyone Underestimates

Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. This is not a marginal producer and not a swing field. It is a reserve base large enough to alter global pricing dynamics outright.
PROMOTED

Before discussing valuation, it is important to understand where Venezuela sits relative to the rest of the world.
Global Oil Reserves, Production And Governance
Global Oil Reserves B
Global Oil Reserves Production
EntrepreneurShares LLC
MORE FOR YOU
Blue Jays Send 1-Word Message After $60 Million Move Raises Bo Bichette Question
NYT Strands Hints, Spangram, Answers: Sunday, January 4 (I Just Know)
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Two facts stand out immediately. Venezuela ranks first globally by proven reserves. Democracies, meanwhile, tend to dominate production efficiency rather than reserve ownership. The difference is governance, capital discipline, and institutional continuity, not geology.

Once the reserve concentration is understood, the economic scale becomes impossible to ignore.
The $18 Trillion To $45 Trillion Reality

Using a long run oil price range that spans modern cycles, from roughly $60 per barrel to the 2008 peak near $150, the notional in ground value of Venezuelan oil is extraordinary.

At the lower end of that range, 303 billion barrels imply a gross in ground value of roughly $18 trillion.

At the upper end of the range, the same reserve base implies a gross in ground value approaching $45 trillion.

Forbes Daily: Join over 1 million Forbes Daily subscribers and get our best stories, exclusive reporting and essential analysis of the day’s news in your inbox every weekday.
Email Address
By signing up, you agree to receive this newsletter, other updates about Forbes and its affiliates’ offerings, our Terms of Service (including resolving disputes on an individual basis via arbitration), and you acknowledge our Privacy Statement. Forbes is protected by reCAPTCHA, and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

These figures are not discounted cash flow estimates and they are not projections of recoverable profit. They are meant to convey scale.

For perspective, U.S. nominal GDP is roughly $28 to $30 trillion annually. Global nominal GDP is approximately $110 to $120 trillion. That means Venezuela’s proven oil reserves represent roughly 60% to more than 150% of one full year of U.S. economic output, and approximately 15% to over 40% of one year of global GDP, depending on where oil prices sit in the cycle.

Few assets on Earth, public or private, approach this magnitude.

This is why Venezuela is not simply an energy story. It is a national wealth and macroeconomic story.
Venezuela Oil Value Is Equal To Entire Mag 7 Combined

To frame Venezuela’s oil wealth in terms equity investors immediately understand, consider the Magnificent Seven. The combined market capitalization of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla currently totals roughly $18 to $20 trillion, depending on market conditions.

At the low end of long-run oil price assumptions, Venezuela’s proven oil reserves carry a comparable notional in-ground value of approximately $18 trillion. Through a single geopolitical shift, the United States has regained operational influence over a resource base whose conservative value rivals the combined equity value of the seven most dominant companies in the U.S. stock market and arguably the world.

Those same seven companies account for more than 37 percent of the entire S&P 500. That context matters. This is the scale of the asset now re-entering the global supply equation. The comparison is not meant to imply direct monetization or valuation parity. It is meant to convey magnitude. Unlocking even a fraction of Venezuela’s oil capacity has the potential to influence inflation, interest rates, and equity valuations on a scale typically associated with major re-ratings of the most consequential assets in global markets.
Putting $45 Trillion In Global Economic Perspective

Large numbers lose meaning without context. One of the most effective ways to understand the scale of Venezuela’s oil wealth is to compare it to the size of entire national economies.

At peak oil prices, Venezuela’s proven oil reserves carry a gross in ground value of roughly $45 trillion. That figure exceeds the annual economic output of the largest nations on Earth. In fact, it is approximately equal to the combined GDPs of the US and China together.
VE Oil Value vs GDP
Value of Venezuela Oil Reserves vs Global GDP Economies
EntrepreneurShares LLC

Venezuela’s proven oil reserves, valued at peak cycle prices, rival or exceed, the combined annual economic output of the world’s largest, most productive nations.

This comparison does not imply that Venezuela’s oil converts one for one into GDP. It does not. But it illustrates scale. When an asset approaches the economic output of entire continents, even partial unlocking can have outsized macroeconomic effects.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Oil

Oil has never been about ideology, fairness or morality. It has always been about power. The largest oil reserves on Earth are overwhelmingly located in countries with weak institutions, high corruption or authoritarian governance.

The result has been consistent across decades. Capital flees. Infrastructure decays. Production collapses. Global inflation rises. Energy only becomes political once it becomes valuable.

This structural reality explains why energy markets embed a persistent geopolitical risk premium and why removing even part of that risk can have outsized effects on inflation and asset prices.
Entrepreneurial Risk, Leadership And Calculated Bets

Entrepreneurial leaders, whether individuals, companies or countries, sometimes take calculated risks. Some succeed. Some fail. What matters is whether risk is aligned with long term value creation.

For more than forty years, Venezuela’s oil resources were not maximized in a way that benef
szczurek.polny Re: Rakcja rynkow na wczorajsza napasc wyzwolencz 04.01.26, 21:59

> Tedzien 4-11:
> Rudy dalej szykuje sie do napasci na Iran
Nie ma takiej potrzeby. Iran się sam rozsypie. Przyjdzie lato i w Teheranie zabraknie wody do picia, dla 10 mln luda. Wiesz do czego są zdolni ludzie którzy wiedzą ich dzieci umierają z pragnienia?

> Rosja intensyfikuje ataki na Ukraine
Nie. Rosja (z broni konwencjonalnej) nie ma już nic więcej. Już atakują na 100% możliwości. Gdyby coś tam jeszcze trzymali schowanego to by rzucili na front miesiąc temu.

> Chiny dopinaja ostatnie plany inwazji Tajwanu ( bo juz moga).
Tak. I mogą jeszcze trochę poczekać. Ale też mogą nie czekać.
kladilak Wszystko trafilem jak w pysk 06.01.26, 01:43

kladilak napisał:

>
> JUTRO RANO:
>
> Ropa w gore.
> Zloto i metale w gore
> Equities ostro w gore
> Dolar w dol.
>
kladilak President Donald Trump said Venezuela would 07.01.26, 12:25

President Donald Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million barrels of oil to the US, worth roughly $2.8 billion at the current market price, announcing the cargoes would be sold with proceeds benefiting both countries.

Dla tych, co radosnie podskoczyli juz z radosci tlumacze" to tyle ropy ( ta gorna granica) ile USA konsumuja w dokladnie 2,5 DNIA.
- senioryta13 Re: President Donald Trump 07.01.26, 14:01
  
  kladilak napisał:
  
  > President Donald Trump said Venezuela would relinquish as much as 50 million ba
  > rrels of oil to the US, worth roughly $2.8 billion at the current market price,
  > announcing the cargoes would be sold with proceeds benefiting both countries.
  >
  > Dla tych, co radosnie podskoczyli juz z radosci tlumacze" to tyle ropy ( ta gor
  > na granica) ile USA konsumuja w dokladnie 2,5 DNIA.
  
  Czlowieku, moze kiedys zrozumiesz o co jest stawka. Na razie wez tylko glebszy oddech i idz do roboty.
agnieszka122 Re: Rakcja rynkow na wczorajsza napasc wyzwolencz 07.01.26, 18:13

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