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Chinese or Russian Nukes in Iran?

The Bush Administration's Final Surprise?

By GRANT SMITH

A History Channel television marathon last week profiled US presidents from
George Washington to George W. Bush. Each brief profile began with bullet point
summaries of each president's unique attributes and demeanor. The profiles
ended with over-arching themes of each administration. Lincoln's theme and
celebrated his ability to rise to successive challenges presented by slavery
and the civil war. Theodore Roosevelt's was that of an enigma. Teddy was the
big game hunter who became the father of the ecology movement and national
parks system. Herbert Hoover's spectrum ranged from his early, but unsung,
triumphs feeding Europe before and during WWI, and success as Commerce
Secretary. Overshadowing all was his fall as the scapegoat for the Great
Depression.

George W. Bush's profile was entirely unflattering. The forty-third president
was the only be judged intellectually incurious but strong-willed, and highly
religious in his bullet points. The History Channel profile reasonably left
open the defining themes of president George W. Bush, since his term is not
over. Here is a prediction; the Bush theme will be that of a President who was
constantly surprised by entirely predictable challenges, most of his own making.

Bush will be remembered as the president who was hand-delivered presidential
briefs warning of impending attack by al Qaeda, but who chose not to act until
it was too late. He is the president of the administration that was unwilling
to budget reinforcement of levies against the destructive power of entirely
predictable hurricanes, a mistake that contributed to the destruction of much
of New Orleans. Bush is the presiden that declared the end of the Iraq war when
it was in its initial stage. Bush is the president surprised and undermined by
the criminal prosecution of corrupt operatives of the political machine and
spoils system that brought him into power.

Bush's biggest surprise yet may be just around the corner. Like the
other "challenges" it will largely be a disaster of his own making: both highly
predictable, but nevertheless devastating. Bush's fatally flawed Middle East
policies may drive either Russia or China to base nuclear missiles in Iran.
China might do it, in order to maintain needed access to natural gas and
petroleum reserves. China could also benefit from offering a "strategic nuclear
umbrella" in the region as a checkmate to the US's forward Pacific naval
deployment and maneuvers, endless administration rhetoric about Taiwan, and
pressure for not doing enough to reign in North Korea. Chinese missiles in Iran
would be a not-too-subtle rebuke to the US, simultaneously reaffirming
sovereignty and the legitimacy of Chinese national interests without creating a
direct threat to the US homeland.

Russia, for its part, might wish to create a "nuclear stockade" around
territory it does not wish to see turned into another Iraq or radioactive slag
heap. By basing short and intermediate range nuclear missiles in Iran, Russia
could send the unmistakable message that it is unwilling to see yet another
seething mass of violence and destruction created in its back yard by the US.
It would create a standoff with Israel's nuclear missiles, many of which are
believed to target Russian cities. Russia's key interests in deployment are the
continued long term access to the Iranian market for engineering services and
large scale projects as well as the protection of military exports. A
Russian "sphere of influence" in a willing Iran would counter and balance the
expected permanent US military presence in Iraq.

Russian or Chinese missiles in Iran would create a global standoff over Iran's
nuclear program. It might even end Iran's uranium enrichment by eliminating the
need to develop its own nuclear weapons. Such a move would also undercut the
Bush Administration's stated designs for a "New World Order" of its own making.
A post Cold War realignment in the form of a Sino or Russian-Iranian military
alliance would be a regrettable, but realistic great power response to the
failed regional policies of neoconservative ideologues. It would be the final
failure of the aggressive, but naïve, policies of an administration that has
been constantly surprised by its own shadow.

Grant F. Smith is director of research at the Institute for Research: Middle
Eastern Policy (IRmep) in Washington, DC. He is the author of the new
book, "Deadly Dogma: How Neoconservatives Broke the Law to Deceive America".

A zydzi judza, judza, judza

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