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29.10.08, 09:29
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Professor's crystal ball calls Obama the winner
October 29, 2008 - 4:28PM
US history professor Allan Lichtman believes he has the secret to
predicting who will win the vote in any US presidential election and
he has the record since 1984 to prove it.
"The 13 Keys to the White House" - a system he developed 27 years
ago with mathematician Volodia Keilis-Borok - has proven right in
every White House race since then, he told AFP.
The "13 keys" are a set of variables which will tell whether the
presidency will change party hands in the quadrennial contest, which
takes place this year on November 4.
The true-or-false statements assess the conditions facing the
incumbent party - this year President George W Bush's Republicans -
on issues such as the candidate's standing, the party's legislative
power, security and the economy, and the level of charisma of the
two major party candidates.
Using these metrics, Lichtman, who lectures on the history of US
presidential elections at American University in Washington, called
the 2008 race two and a half years ago.
Before Barack Obama was even in the running, he told Foresight
magazine in February 2006 that the Democrats would retake the White
House.
"I could see the winds of change were blowing, based on the keys,"
he said.
"Long before the nomination contest unfolded, the Democrats could
take a name out of a phone book and still win."
For the party holding the presidency to lose it, Lichtman says, six
or more of the 13 keys have to be false.
In early 2006, Bush and the Republicans had eight falses. Today,
Lichtman said, there are "at least" eight falses. To him, Republican
candidate Senator John McCain hasn't had a chance since as far back
as 2005.
The keys give no weight to the candidate's vice presidential running
mate, how his wife looks, or how the campaign goes.
"The basic theory behind the whole system is that American elections
are basically a verdict on the performance of the party holding the
White House," Lichtman said.
"The basic thesis is it is governing, not campaigning, that counts.
It's why you can make these predictions before you even know who the
nominees are."
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